Calendar › Morning Rundown › 2026-11-13

Huang is out. Futures shrug, PPI next

Rundown · 2026-11-13

The Nvidia question has an answer, and the market has moved on to rates. Nvidia said on Thursday that Jensen Huang has left as CEO and from the board, with CFO Colette Kress as interim CEO. The stock closed −4.34% after trading down about 14% at the low, and it is +2.5% in premarket trade. Index futures are flat against Thursday's settles as of about 06:35 ET: ES +0.12%, NQ −0.01%, YM +0.06%, RTY +0.06%. The pressure now is rates: the first official Treasury print since CPI put the 2-year at 4.86% and the 10-year at 5.10% (US Treasury), up 13bp and 12bp in two sessions, and the Russell 2000 fell 1.66% while gold lost 2.88%. October PPI at 08:30 is the only scheduled data today.

Overnight

• Where futures sit, about 06:35 ET, against Thursday's settles: ES +0.12% · NQ −0.01% · YM +0.06% · RTY +0.06%. After a week of single-stock headlines, the four indices are moving together and barely moving at all.
• Ranges since the 18:00 reopen, as reference only. ES has ranged 0.67%, from 0.22% below its settle to 0.45% above, and sits mid-range. NQ has ranged 1.28%, from 0.50% below to 0.79% above, and sits in the lower half: it rallied early in the session and has given most of that back. YM has ranged 0.52% and RTY 0.59%, both mid-range. Unlike Thursday morning, both sides of the settle have traded in all four.
• Asia was mixed. Nikkei +0.53%, Hang Seng −1.55%, Shanghai −0.59%, ASX 200 −0.71%.
• Europe is flat. DAX +0.08%, CAC 40 +0.01%, FTSE 100 +0.12%, STOXX 600 unchanged. October inflation in France and Spain came in firm, which keeps talk of ECB tightening alive, and euro-area third-quarter GDP was unrevised at zero growth in the second estimate.
• What broke while the US was closed. Iran's Revolutionary Guards claimed a strike on a US radar site in Bahrain and warned companies over Hormuz oil trade, and comments from President Trump that the US does not need a deal with Iran have been read in markets as putting the talks at risk. We could not confirm the exact wording or timing of the Trump remarks from a primary source.

The Dollar & FX

• DXY +0.06%, at its highest level in about 20 months. The move is small this morning, but the direction has not changed since Tuesday's CPI. The dollar is +0.9% over five days, carried by a Treasury market that has priced in more Fed hikes.
• 6J: USD/JPY +0.05%, sitting just under 160. Prime Minister Takaichi issued another verbal warning overnight. The pair has ranged about 0.33% and has not broken through. This is the pair with an intervention risk attached, and it is the one most likely to make a sudden move that is not about US data.
• 6A: AUD/USD −0.24%, the weakest major for a second morning. The Hang Seng's 1.55% fall and the broad dollar bid are the drivers. We found no Australia-specific catalyst.
• 6E: EUR/USD flat, near its lowest in about 17 months. Firm French and Spanish inflation gives the euro some rate support, which is why it is holding while the dollar edges up elsewhere.
• 6C: USD/CAD +0.08%, with the loonie near its weakest level in over a year. Crude is not helping it this morning.
• 6B: GBP/USD −0.02%, quiet, with no UK catalyst this morning.
• Fed pricing. The funds rate is 3.75-4.00% (Fed), and markets are pricing a hike at the 9 December meeting. We could not verify a current FedWatch probability or a prediction-market figure this morning, so we are leaving the number out. Deutsche Bank now expects three consecutive hikes.

Energy & Metals

• CL: +2.55% Thursday, −0.28% overnight. WTI rose despite a 4.66M-barrel crude build reported by the EIA (estimate: a 1.1M draw), because the Iran talks are going backward. Brent +3.30% Thursday, +0.16% overnight. CL has ranged about 1.6% overnight and sits mid-range.
• The mechanism. Two forces are pulling in opposite directions. The physical market is loosening: the EIA build was large, Gulf exports are recovering, and the IEA said this morning that the global market is set to return to surplus as Gulf exports recover. The risk premium is rising again: Iran's Revolutionary Guards and the Trump remarks above. Thursday showed which one the market is pricing first. The Baker Hughes rig count at 13:00 is the only scheduled oil input today.
• GC: −2.88% Thursday, +0.14% overnight, and its third straight loss. Gold broke below its late-October low and is back under $3,900.
• Why gold is offered. Real yields and the dollar, both moving the wrong way for gold at once: the 10-year is above 5% and DXY is at a 20-month high. GC has ranged about 1.24% overnight; it rallied about 1% early in Asia and gave it back, and sits in the lower quarter of that range. PPI is the first data point since CPI that can move real yields, so it is gold's main event today.

Where We Left Off

• Thursday's RTH: Nasdaq Composite −0.39%, Dow −0.36%, S&P 500 −0.35%, Russell 2000 −1.66% (AP's figures agree). The Nasdaq-100 fell 0.30%. Ten of 11 S&P 500 sectors fell; energy was the only one up.
• Treasury yields, the first official print since Tuesday: 2-year 4.86%, 10-year 5.10%, 30-year 5.43% (US Treasury, 12 November), up 13bp, 12bp and 8bp from 10 November. The front end led, which is the market pricing Fed hikes, not just a term-premium story.
• What happened. Nvidia fell 4.34% on the CEO news, but the indices finished close to where they started the day: AMD +5.86% and Broadcom +5.54% took the other side, with analysts calling them beneficiaries of Nvidia's leadership gap. Stocks gave up midday gains as yields rose and several Fed speakers sounded hawkish; Governor Barr also flagged near-term job-market disruption from AI.
• What carries over: small caps are where the rate move shows up. The Russell's 1.66% loss was more than four times the S&P's, and RTY is the contract most exposed to a hot PPI. The Nvidia story is resolved for now. The rates story is not.

Yesterday's Data

• Jobless claims: 200K vs 195K expected, but the 4-week average held at the 2026 low.
• Existing home sales: 3.75M vs 3.85M expected, the slowest pace since 2010.
• EIA crude inventories: +4.7M barrels vs a 1.1M draw expected, ending five straight draws.

On The Calendar Today

Time ET · Event · Consensus · Prior · Hits

08:30 · PPI m/m, Oct · 0.4% · 1.3% · USD · GC · ES/NQ/RTY

08:30 · Core PPI m/m, Oct · 0.3% · 0.7% · USD · GC · ES/NQ/RTY

08:30 · PPI y/y, Oct · 6.6% · 6.3% · USD · GC

08:30 · Core PPI y/y, Oct · 5.0% · 5.0% · USD · GC

10:30 · EIA natural gas storage, w/e 6 Nov (holiday-delayed) · 66 Bcf · 77 Bcf · NG

10:50 · Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman · n/a · n/a · USD · rates

12:00 · Fed's Daly · n/a · n/a · USD · rates

13:00 · Baker Hughes rig count · n/a · 463 oil rigs · CL

Consensus: TradingEconomics. PPI timing confirmed for 13 November in two separate calendars; the 10:00 slot is empty, and October retail sales are scheduled for Tuesday 17 November. Fed Governor Jefferson speaks at about 19:00, after the close. Next week: Empire State on Monday, retail sales and industrial production on Tuesday, FOMC minutes on Wednesday, and Nvidia's results on 17 November.

PPI at 08:30 is the session's fulcrum, and the y/y figure is the one to read. The headline is expected to slow sharply month on month after September's 1.3%, but the year-on-year rate is expected to rise to 6.6%. A print at or above consensus confirms Tuesday's CPI and gives the front end another reason to price the December hike, which would put pressure on RTY and GC. A soft print is the first data point in a week that would let yields ease. Bowman and Daly will then have a chance to frame it.

Index Movers

Ranked by index contribution. Thursday's moves close to close; premarket moves as of about 06:45 ET on light volume.

• NVDA −4.34% Thursday, +2.5% premarket. The largest or second-largest weight in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100. Huang resigned as president, CEO and director; Kress is interim CEO and long-time director Harvey Jones becomes the company's first board chair. Results are still due 17 November. The stock is up premarket, so the confirmed exit is weighing on it less than the uncertainty did.
• AVGO +5.54% Thursday, −1.9% premarket. AMD +5.86% Thursday, −2.0% premarket. Both are large Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500 weights. They are giving back part of Thursday's rotation out of Nvidia this morning.
• CSCO +1.24% Thursday, −3.05% premarket. A Dow and Nasdaq-100 member. Fiscal first-quarter revenue rose 24% to $18.52 billion and Cisco raised its full-year outlook and its AI infrastructure order target, but adjusted gross margin fell to 65.6% from 68.1%. The margin is what the premarket is trading, and it is the one premarket move here with a YM angle.
• AMAT −3.58% Thursday, +0.4% premarket. A Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500 semiconductor-equipment name. It beat on fourth-quarter revenue and guided the first quarter to $11.1 billion, plus or minus $500 million, against about $10.89 billion expected. The reaction is muted.

What Would Change The Read

• Scoring Thursday's calls. We asked whether Nvidia's board would act: it did, and Huang is out. We asked whether Broadcom and AMD would stay green while Nvidia fell: they did, both up more than 5%, so the market treated it as a governance story at one company. We called the 30-year auction the rates test: it cleared at 5.441%, below the prior auction's 5.618%, but the 30-year still finished the day 8bp higher than Tuesday.
• The y/y PPI against 6.6%. Above it, the front end has more to price and RTY has the most to lose. Below it, gold has the most room to recover from a three-day slide.
• Whether USD/JPY breaks 160. Tokyo is warning again. A sharp move in the yen would hit the dollar index and could move NQ and gold faster than any scheduled event today.
• Iran headlines for CL. The physical data says oversupply; the headlines say risk premium. A confirmed escalation or a confirmed collapse of the talks moves CL more than the rig count will.
• Whether NQ holds the settle into the cash open. It has traded on both sides of Thursday's settle overnight. With the Nvidia question answered, a move in NQ today is more likely to be about rates than about one stock.

The Bottom Line

The Nvidia story that drove Thursday's open has resolved: Huang is gone, an interim CEO is in place, and the stock is higher premarket. Futures are flat. What has not resolved is the rate move. The first official Treasury print since CPI showed the 2-year up 13bp in two sessions, small caps fell more than four times as hard as the S&P, and gold fell 2.9% for a third straight loss. October PPI at 08:30 is the only scheduled data before the weekend, and it lands on a market that has already moved a long way on rates. Today's session depends on PPI and on what Bowman and Daly do with it.

_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._