Calendar › EIA weekly natural gas storage › 2026-11-13

Natural Gas +61 Bcf vs +66 Est — Build Beats Normal by 21, Surplus Widens to 75

Fundamentals · 2026-11-13

Working gas in storage rose 61 Bcf in the week to 6 November against a 66 Bcf consensus (TradingEconomics), after +77 the week before, unrevised. That is 5 Bcf below the survey but 21 Bcf above the five-year average build of +40, the third straight week above the seasonal norm and the widest beat in ten weeks, and 17 Bcf above the year-ago +44. Total stocks 3,862 Bcf: 92 Bcf (−2.3%) below last year, from 109, and 75 Bcf (+2.0%) above the five-year average, from 54. Every region built at or above its norm: South Central +27 against a normal 18, with salt +16 against 9; East +12 against 7; Midwest +18 against 13. Standard error on the net change 1.1 Bcf. Released Friday on the holiday schedule; next release Thursday 19 November.

What It Changes

• Another tight miss against the survey, another loose print against history. 61 against 66 expected is 5 Bcf short, outside the 1.1 Bcf sampling error. But the five-year norm for this week was only 40, so the build beat it by 21, the widest margin in the ten weeks this feed has tracked.
• The surplus widened for a third week. Stocks are 75 Bcf above the five-year average, from 54 last week and 38 the week before. The deficit to last year narrowed by 17 to 92.
• This week the excess was broad, not just South Central. Last week South Central was 15 Bcf over its norm and the rest of the country 1 over. This week South Central was 9 over and the other four regions a combined 11 over.
• The last soft spot is closing. South Central salt is 5.7% below its five-year average, from 8.1%, and the region as a whole is just 0.3% below, from 1.1%.

Impact

• Natural Gas (NG) — Mixed, lean bearish — the survey miss reads tight, but the comparison that sets the winter cushion, stocks against the five-year average, moved the loose way for a third week.
• The front month sold off on the release. In the release minute it traded +0.22% and −0.71% against its 10:29 close, on about four times the volume of the minute before, and closed the minute −0.62%. By 10:45 ET it was −0.31% from 10:29, and −0.37% at about 11:20.
• Most of the day's move came before the release. NG was already about 2.8% below Thursday's settle at 10:29 and about 3.1% below it at 11:20. The market did not trade the 5 Bcf miss as a tight surprise, for a second week running.
• The cushion grew. At 3,862 Bcf stocks are 75 Bcf above the five-year average, and EIA places them "within the five-year historical range".
• USD — Neutral — gas storage has no dollar transmission.
• US Indices (ES / NQ / YM / RTY) — Neutral — the exposure runs through utilities and gas-intensive industry, not the index.

Inside The Number

Working gas in underground storage in the Lower 48 rose 61 Bcf in the week ending Friday 6 November, taking total stocks to 3,862 Bcf. Consensus was +66 Bcf (TradingEconomics), and the prior week's +77 Bcf was unrevised: last week's 3,801 is this week's starting point, and the implied flow equals the net change in every region, so there was no reclassification. EIA's standard error on the national net change is 1.1 Bcf, so the 5 Bcf miss is outside sampling error. The report came out on Friday rather than Thursday because of the Veterans Day holiday.

The seasonal comparison is where this week turns loose, again. EIA's five-year average stock moved from 3,747 Bcf to 3,787 Bcf between the two report dates, which puts the five-year average build for this week at +40 Bcf, down from +61 last week. Year-ago stocks moved from 3,910 to 3,954, a +44 Bcf build. This week's 61 is 21 Bcf above the five-year norm and 17 above last year. The survey expected 66, so forecasters again looked for a bigger beat over the norm than the one that came, and for a second week the build came in under the survey and over the norm.

The run against the five-year build, ten weeks: −12, −29, −23, −16, −11, −23, −10, +3, +16 and now +21 Bcf. Seven weeks short through September and mid-October, then three weeks over, each one wider than the last.

Both level comparisons moved the loose way again. Stocks are 75 Bcf above the five-year average, a 2.0% surplus that widened by 21 from 54. They are 92 Bcf below a year ago, a 2.3% deficit that narrowed by 17 from 109.

Every region built at or above its norm. Differencing EIA's published year-ago and five-year stocks against last week's report gives each region's normal build:

• East built 12 Bcf against a five-year normal of 7; a year ago it built 3.
• Midwest built 18 against 13, year-ago 13.
• Mountain built 2 against 1, year-ago 2.
• Pacific built 2 against 2, year-ago 3. It was the only region exactly at its norm, after drawing last week.
• South Central built 27 against 18, year-ago 21. Inside it, salt injected 16 against a normal 9 and nonsalt 12 against 8.

Salt has now refilled for six straight weeks. At 312 Bcf, the run since September's draws reads +14, +9, +15, +23, +22 and +16, the fourth straight double-digit injection. Salt sits 5.7% below its five-year average, from 8.1%, and 11.1% below a year ago, from 12.9%. The salt standard error is 0.7 Bcf. Salt caverns can be filled and emptied several times a season, which makes them the system's quick-response capacity for cold snaps. They remain the only part of the system meaningfully below its five-year average, but the gap has more than halved since mid-October, when it was 15.4%.

South Central as a whole is effectively at normal. At 1,235 Bcf the region is 0.3% below its five-year average, from 1.1%, and 6.1% below a year ago, from 6.6%. Nonsalt sits 1.9% above its five-year average, from 1.4%.

The consuming regions moved further above normal. The East holds 938 Bcf, 3.1% above its five-year average, from 2.5%, and 2.7% above a year ago. The Midwest holds 1,129 Bcf, 2.5% above its five-year average, from 2.0%. Mountain is 262 Bcf, 4.4% above, from 4.0%; Pacific 298 Bcf, 4.6% above, unchanged.

Why the build beat the norm but missed the survey is not in the release. EIA reports storage, not supply or demand, so it cannot say whether the gap came from heating load, power burn, LNG exports or production.

The Internals

The headline against every benchmark:

Comparison · Value · Gap · Read

This week's build · +61 Bcf · n/a · The print

Consensus · +66 Bcf · −5 Bcf · Smaller build than expected

Prior week · +77 Bcf · −16 Bcf · Smaller build, prior unrevised

Five-year average build, this week · +40 Bcf · +21 Bcf · Third week above normal

Same week a year ago · +44 Bcf · +17 Bcf · Above last year

Standard error on the net change · 1.1 Bcf · n/a · A precise print

The gap to the five-year build, ten weeks:

Week ending · Build · Five-year average build · Gap

4 September · +40 Bcf · About +52 Bcf · About −12 Bcf

11 September · +44 Bcf · +73 Bcf · −29 Bcf

18 September · +53 Bcf · +76 Bcf · −23 Bcf

25 September · +64 Bcf · +80 Bcf · −16 Bcf

2 October · +85 Bcf · +96 Bcf · −11 Bcf

9 October · +67 Bcf · +90 Bcf · −23 Bcf

16 October · +77 Bcf · +87 Bcf · −10 Bcf

23 October · +80 Bcf · +77 Bcf · +3 Bcf

30 October · +77 Bcf · +61 Bcf · +16 Bcf

6 November · +61 Bcf · +40 Bcf · +21 Bcf

Stock levels:

Measure · 6 November · 30 October · Change

Total working gas · 3,862 Bcf · 3,801 Bcf · +61

Year-ago stocks · 3,954 Bcf · 3,910 Bcf · +44

Deficit to last year · −92 Bcf, −2.3% · −109 Bcf, −2.8% · Narrowed 17

Five-year average stocks · 3,787 Bcf · 3,747 Bcf · +40

Surplus to five-year average · +75 Bcf, +2.0% · +54 Bcf, +1.4% · Widened 21

Regional detail, Bcf:

Region · 6 Nov · 30 Oct · Net · Year ago · vs year ago · Five-year average · vs five-year

East · 938 · 926 · +12 · 913 · +2.7% · 910 · +3.1%

Midwest · 1,129 · 1,111 · +18 · 1,115 · +1.3% · 1,102 · +2.5%

Mountain · 262 · 260 · +2 · 290 · −9.7% · 251 · +4.4%

Pacific · 298 · 296 · +2 · 321 · −7.2% · 285 · +4.6%

South Central · 1,235 · 1,208 · +27 · 1,315 · −6.1% · 1,239 · −0.3%

South Central salt · 312 · 296 · +16 · 351 · −11.1% · 331 · −5.7%

South Central nonsalt · 924 · 912 · +12 · 964 · −4.1% · 907 · +1.9%

Total Lower 48 · 3,862 · 3,801 · +61 · 3,954 · −2.3% · 3,787 · +2.0%

This week's build against the normal build, by region, derived from EIA's published year-ago and five-year stocks (regions may not sum to the total because of rounding):

Region · Actual build · Five-year build · Gap · Year-ago build

East · +12 · +7 · +5 · +3

Midwest · +18 · +13 · +5 · +13

Mountain · +2 · +1 · +1 · +2

Pacific · +2 · +2 · 0 · +3

South Central · +27 · +18 · +9 · +21

South Central salt · +16 · +9 · +7 · +11

South Central nonsalt · +12 · +8 · +4 · +10

Total Lower 48 · +61 · +40 · +21 · +44

South Central salt, eight weeks:

Week ending · Stock · Net · vs year ago · vs five-year

18 September · 217 Bcf · −5 · −27.2% · −12.5%

25 September · 213 Bcf · −4 · −27.3% · −15.5%

2 October · 227 Bcf · +14 · −23.1% · −14.0%

9 October · 236 Bcf · +9 · −21.9% · −15.4%

16 October · 251 Bcf · +15 · −21.1% · −14.9%

23 October · 274 Bcf · +23 · −18.0% · −11.6%

30 October · 296 Bcf · +22 · −12.9% · −8.1%

6 November · 312 Bcf · +16 · −11.1% · −5.7%

Sampling variability, from EIA:

Region · Standard error on net change · Coefficient of variation for stocks

East · 0.5 Bcf · 0.6%

Midwest · 0.5 Bcf · 0.8%

Mountain · 0.1 Bcf · 3.1%

Pacific · 0.0 Bcf · 0.0%

South Central · 0.8 Bcf · 0.8%

South Central salt · 0.7 Bcf · 1.2%

South Central nonsalt · 0.4 Bcf · 1.0%

Total Lower 48 · 1.1 Bcf · 0.4%

Against This Morning's Open

• The Open listed the holiday-delayed report at 10:30 with a 66 Bcf consensus and the prior 77. It printed 61, 5 below.
• The Open did not set a view on gas beyond the calendar line, so there is no call to score.

What This Sets Up

• The next report is Thursday 19 November at 10:30 ET, back on the usual day, covering the week to 13 November.
• The read to confirm or break: the gap to the five-year build. A fourth week above normal would widen the surplus again from 75 Bcf. A build at or below the norm would be the first sign that heating demand has started to take over from injections.
• Salt is the one tight spot left. At 5.7% below its five-year average, another injection above its norm would keep closing the gap; a first withdrawal from salt would show the cold-snap buffer being called on early.

What Is This?

• What it is: The EIA's Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report estimates working gas held in underground storage in the Lower 48 states, from a sample survey of storage operators (Form EIA-912). It reports the net change for the week, total stocks, and the comparison with a year ago and the five-year average, for five regions, with South Central split into salt caverns and nonsalt reservoirs.
• Why it matters: Storage is the buffer between supply and winter demand. The build or draw each week, against the survey and against the seasonal norm, is the main weekly read on whether the market is tight or loose, and it is the scheduled event that most often moves NG futures.
• How to read it: A build smaller than consensus is a tight surprise, a larger one a loose surprise. The five-year average comparison removes the seasonal pattern; the surplus or deficit against it is the market's running gauge of the winter cushion. The standard error tells you how much of a surprise is sampling noise.

Want the full explainer? Economic News Events, Explained breaks down this release and every other one we cover, in plain English.

_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._