Calendar › Existing home sales › 2026-11-12

Existing Home Sales 3.75M vs 3.85M Est — Slowest Since 2010 With Mortgages at 7.33%

Fundamentals · 2026-11-12

Existing home sales 3.75 million annual rate in October vs 3.85 million consensus (TradingEconomics), down 5.5% m/m and down 8.8% y/y; "home sales fell to their lowest level since August 2010" (Yun); September revised down to about 3.97 million from 3.99 million, implied by NAR's own monthly changes; 30-year mortgage 7.33% in October (Freddie Mac), up 47bp in a month and 108bp in a year; homes for sale 1.59 million, up 1.3% m/m and 4.6% y/y, 5.1 months' supply from 4.7; median price $416,700, up just 0.4% y/y, the 40th straight annual gain and the slowest of the last four months; sales down in all four regions on the year, West −14.5%; affordability index 100.7 vs 107.3 a year ago, worse in every region; first-time buyers 29%, cash 29%, investors and second-home buyers 20%, distressed 2%, days on market 35.

What It Changes

• The rate channel is now biting on volume. At 3.75 million against a 3.85 million consensus (TradingEconomics), sales missed by 100,000 and fell to the lowest level since August 2010, by NAR's own account, in a month when the 30-year mortgage averaged 7.33%.
• Power has shifted to buyers. Months' supply jumped to 5.1 from a revised 4.7, and price growth slowed to 0.4% with the South already negative.
• It does not change the December decision. The Fed is weighing a hike to fight prices; this is evidence that tighter policy is already reaching households, which is the point of a hike, not a reason to skip one. With the funds rate at 3.75-4.00% (Fed), housing is a second-tier input next to Tuesday's hot CPI.
• It confirms last month's read. The 13 October brief said October at or below about 4.0 million with price growth under 1.3% would confirm the slowdown. Both happened, by a wide margin.

Impact

• USD — Neutral — a housing miss does not move the hike debate, which is about prices; nothing here changes the December pricing.
• DXY was +0.14% against Wednesday's settle at about 09:59 ET and +0.16% at 10:05 ET, so there was no dollar reaction to speak of. Fed Governor Barr was also scheduled for 10:00, so no move in that window belongs to the data alone.
• US Indices (ES / NQ / YM / RTY) — Slight bearish, mostly for RTY and housing-linked names — transaction volume at a 15-year low is lost revenue for brokers, title insurers, lenders and home-improvement retailers.
• RTY, the most exposed through regional banks and housing-linked small caps, went from −1.12% at about 09:59 ET to −1.26% at 10:05 ET against Wednesday's settle. ES went from −0.26% to −0.39% and NQ from −0.40% to −0.66% over the same window, with Nvidia still driving the large caps.
• Gold (GC) — Neutral — no direct channel; gold's slide today is about hike pricing, and it was already −3.15% before 10:00 and −3.19% at 10:05 ET.

Inside The Number

Existing home sales ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.75 million in October, down 5.5% on the month and down 8.8% on the year. Consensus was 3.85 million, so this is a 100,000 miss. NAR's Chief Economist Lawrence Yun: "Home buying is difficult when mortgage rates have climbed to their highest levels since 2000, aside from a single month in 2023. As a result, home sales fell to their lowest level since August 2010."

September was revised down again. A 5.5% fall to 3.75 million implies September at about 3.97 million, not the 3.99 million reported on 13 October. The regions confirm it: the South's 6.5% fall to 1.73 million implies September at about 1.85 million against 1.86 million first reported, and the West's 9.7% fall to 650,000 implies about 720,000 against 730,000. The Northeast (unchanged at 470,000) and the Midwest (down 3.2% to 900,000, implying 930,000) match their first prints. The four implied regional figures sum to 3.97 million. It is the second month in a row the prior was cut, so even the 3.85 million consensus was measured against a higher base than the real one.

The mortgage rate is the whole story. The average 30-year fixed was 7.33% in October per Freddie Mac, up from 6.86% in September and 6.25% a year ago. That is a 47bp rise in one month, on top of 19bp in September. The Housing Affordability Index fell to 100.7 from 107.3 a year ago, down in every region: Northeast −8.7%, Midwest −7.2%, South −5.4%, West −5.2%. In September, affordability was down in three regions and up in the West; that last pocket of improvement is gone.

Supply is building. Homes for sale were 1.59 million, up 1.3% on the month, which implies September at about 1.57 million rather than the 1.60 million first reported. Months' supply rose to 5.1 from 4.7 in September, which NAR first reported as 4.8. A year ago it was 4.4. Six months is the conventional line between a sellers' market and a balanced one, and the series has moved from 4.4 to 5.1 in a year, most of it in October, because sales fell while listings held.

Prices are flat in nominal terms. The median existing-home price was $416,700, up 0.4% from $414,900 a year ago, the 40th consecutive annual gain. That growth rate has gone from 2.0% in July to 1.6% in August to 1.3% in September to 0.4% now. The South fell 0.4% and the West was unchanged; the Northeast still led at +3.2%. With core CPI running at a 3.7% three-month annualized pace (BLS), a 0.4% nominal gain is a clear real decline. Yun's line on owners: "The number of distressed property sales remains historically low at only 2% of all transactions."

The buyer mix tilted away from mortgage borrowers. First-time buyers fell to 29% from 31% in September and 32% a year ago; they are the buyers most dependent on a mortgage. Cash sales rose to 29% from 27%. Investors and second-home buyers held at 20%, so last month's five-point jump has stuck. Median days on market rose to 35 from 33. Yun sees upside if rates turn: "there could be sizable pent-up demand if mortgage rates decline."

The narrative point: the slowdown that this feed called "gradual and orderly" a month ago is no longer gradual. Rates did what they were always going to do to a rate-sensitive market, after only one Fed hike, in September. Prices have held up because there are still no forced sellers; distress is at 2% and has not moved.

The Internals

Measure · October 2026 · September 2026 · Change · Read

Existing home sales, annual rate · 3.75 million · About 3.97 million, revised · Down 5.5% · Missed 3.85 million consensus

Existing home sales, September as first reported · n/a · 3.99 million · Revised down about 20,000 · Second straight downward revision

Year-over-year change · Down 8.8% · Down 2.2%, as first reported · Much weaker · All four regions lower

Median price, all types · $416,700 · $417,500 · Up 0.4% y/y · 40th straight annual gain, the slowest of the last four

Homes for sale · 1.59 million · About 1.57 million, revised · Up 1.3% m/m · Up 4.6% y/y

Months' supply · 5.1 months · 4.7 months, revised from 4.8 · Up 0.4 months · 4.4 months a year ago

Median days on market · 35 days · 33 days · Up 2 days · 34 days a year ago

30-year fixed mortgage, monthly average · 7.33% · 6.86% · Up 47bp · 6.25% a year ago

Housing Affordability Index · 100.7 · 105.4 · n/a · 107.3 a year ago

Price growth, four months:

Month · Median price · Year-over-year · Read

July 2026 · $434,100 · Up 2.0% · Slowing

August 2026 · $429,100 · Up 1.6% · Below wage growth

September 2026 · $417,500 · Up 1.3% · Below wage growth and CPI

October 2026 · $416,700 · Up 0.4% · Close to flat

Single-family against condominiums and co-ops:

Property type · Annual rate · Month-over-month · Year-over-year · Median price · Price, 12-month

Single-family homes · 3.41 million · Down 5.8% · Down 8.6% · $421,900 · Up 0.4%

Condominiums and co-ops · 340,000 · Down 2.9% · Down 10.5% · $365,100 · Up 0.3%

• Single-family's 5.8% fall implies September at about 3.62 million, against 3.64 million first reported.

The Buyer Mix And The Regions

From the REALTORS Confidence Index:

Buyer category · October 2026 · September 2026 · October 2025 · Read

First-time buyers · 29% · 31% · 32% · Down 2 points; the most rate-sensitive buyers

Investors and second-home buyers · 20% · 20% · 16% · September's jump has held

All-cash sales · 29% · 27% · 29% · Up 2 points as borrowing costs rose

Distressed sales · 2% · 2% · 2% · Unchanged

The regions, with September implied from today's monthly changes:

Region · October rate · September, implied · September, first reported · Month-over-month · Year-over-year · Median price · Price, 12-month

Northeast · 470,000 · 470,000 · 470,000 · Unchanged · Down 4.1% · $519,600 · Up 3.2%

Midwest · 900,000 · About 930,000 · 930,000 · Down 3.2% · Down 8.2% · $324,300 · Up 1.5%

South · 1.73 million · About 1.85 million · 1.86 million · Down 6.5% · Down 8.0% · $360,900 · Down 0.4%

West · 650,000 · About 720,000 · 730,000 · Down 9.7% · Down 14.5% · $624,300 · Unchanged

Total · 3.75 million · About 3.97 million · 3.99 million · Down 5.5% · Down 8.8% · $416,700 · Up 0.4%

Affordability, year over year:

Region · Affordability change, 12-month · Median price, 12-month · Read

Northeast · Down 8.7% · Up 3.2% · Worst affordability, strongest prices, steadiest sales

Midwest · Down 7.2% · Up 1.5% · Rates and prices both against buyers

South · Down 5.4% · Down 0.4% · Prices now falling

West · Down 5.2% · Unchanged · Steepest sales drop in the country

National index · 100.7, from 107.3 · Up 0.4% · Worse on the year

• The West broke first. It is the most expensive region, it was the only one with falling prices in September, and it took the biggest hit in October: down 9.7% on the month and 14.5% on the year.
• The Northeast is the outlier in the other direction: sales flat on the month and prices still up 3.2%, despite the worst affordability decline.
• The South, the largest region, has joined the West in flat-to-falling prices, which is why the national median barely rose.

Against This Morning's Open

• The Open listed existing home sales at 3.85 million consensus against a 3.99 million prior, tagged to USD and RTY. Sales came in well below at 3.75 million, and the prior was revised down to about 3.97 million.
• The Open put the session's fulcrum on the 30-year auction, not on this release. The miss was large for housing, but the dollar barely moved and RTY's slide around 10:00 shared the window with Governor Barr.

What This Sets Up

• Next existing home sales: Wednesday 9 December, 10:00 ET, covering November, on the same day as the FOMC decision (NAR schedule).
• Confirms the read: November at or below about 3.8 million with months' supply above 5, which would say October's mortgage rate is still working through closings.
• Breaks it: a rebound back above 3.95 million, which would say October was a one-month air pocket rather than a new level.
• The lead indicator is pending home sales on Wednesday 18 November, which measures contracts signed in October, when the 30-year averaged 7.33%; those contracts close in November and December.
• Watch the price line. The South is already negative; if the national median turns negative on the year, it ends a 40-month run of annual gains.

What Is This?

• What it is: The National Association of REALTORS' monthly count of completed sales of existing single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, drawn from MLS closing data (about 40% of MLS data each month) and released at 10:00 ET. Sales are reported as a seasonally adjusted annual rate, the pace sales would run at for a year if the month repeated twelve times. Existing homes are more than 90% of all US home sales. Alongside the sales rate come the median price, homes for sale, months' supply, the Housing Affordability Index and the REALTORS Confidence Index, which carries the buyer mix.
• Why it matters: Housing is the most rate-sensitive part of the economy, and this release shows how much a rising mortgage rate is costing in volume. With mortgage rates above 7% and the market pricing a December Fed hike, it is the clearest read on whether tighter policy is reaching households.
• How to read it: Read supply before sales: months' supply shows who has the negotiating power, and six months is the conventional line between a sellers' market and a balanced one. Compare the median price only year over year, since NAR says month-to-month changes reflect the season, and compare it with wage growth to see whether homes are getting more or less affordable in real terms. The median is affected by which homes sell, so it is not a same-home price index; Case-Shiller and FHFA measure that. NAR revises the prior month, so check the implied revision before calling a beat or a miss.

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_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._