Calendar › Morning Rundown › 2026-11-12

Nvidia's board weighs Huang's exit. NQ slips 0.9%

Rundown · 2026-11-12

One stock is doing the damage this morning. Nvidia is −7.3% in premarket trade after the Wall Street Journal reported that its board is preparing to remove CEO Jensen Huang, and Reuters reported the board met late Wednesday to decide his future. No decision has been announced. Index futures have split around it: NQ −0.85%, ES −0.38%, RTY −0.02%, YM +0.06% against Wednesday's settles as of about 06:30 ET. By rough arithmetic on its index weight, Nvidia alone accounts for most of NQ's decline and more than all of ES's. Underneath that, gold is the other big mover, GC −1.17% overnight on Fed-hike pricing, and the cash Treasury market reopens today for the first time since Tuesday's CPI pushed the 10-year to 4.98% (US Treasury).

Overnight

Where futures sit, about 06:30 ET, against Wednesday's settles: NQ −0.85% · ES −0.38% · RTY −0.02% · YM +0.06%. Wednesday's leaders are now the laggards, with the chip-heavy Nasdaq down and the Dow holding up, but the cause is one name, not a rotation.
Ranges since the 18:00 reopen, as reference only. ES has ranged 0.37%, from 0.52% below its settle to 0.16% below, and sits in the lower half of that range. It has not traded above Wednesday's settle all night. NQ has ranged 0.83%, from 1.20% below to 0.37% below, also in the lower half, and also never above its settle. Both opened lower on the Nvidia headline and have not been back. YM has ranged 0.35% (0.13% below to 0.22% above) and sits mid-range. RTY has ranged 0.53% and is about flat.
Asia took the Nvidia hit. Nikkei −0.70%, Hang Seng −1.26%, Shanghai −0.67%. Memory and chip names that led Wednesday's rally, including SK Hynix, gave ground.
Europe is higher regardless. DAX +0.69%, CAC 40 +0.71%, FTSE 100 +0.35%. UK GDP grew 0.7% in the third quarter, up from 0.5% in the second, and September output rose 0.2% against a flat forecast (ONS, via Bloomberg). Sterling barely moved on it.
What broke while the US was closed. Nvidia, above. The reports follow Huang's acknowledged affair and a report that a woman involved was suspected of spying for China. On Sunday, the board announced an independent probe but said it had confidence in his leadership. Reuters says the board is also weighing an interim CEO. Nvidia reports quarterly results on 17 November, so the company faces either a leadership change or an earnings call under this cloud within a week.

The Dollar & FX

DXY −0.01%, flat, near its highest level in about 20 months. The dollar's rally since Tuesday's hot CPI has paused overnight rather than reversed. It ranged about 0.27% and sits in the lower half of that range. Nvidia's headline has not produced a haven bid for the dollar.
6E: EUR/USD +0.01%, but it traded at a 17-month low overnight before steadying. The euro is still where the widening US-Europe rate gap shows up most clearly, and it is the pair to watch when Treasuries reopen.
6A: AUD/USD −0.31%, the weakest major this morning, at its lowest since January. The broad dollar and the Nvidia hit to Asian tech are the drivers. We found no Australia-specific catalyst.
6J: USD/JPY −0.06%, just below 160 after topping out there Wednesday. Japanese producer prices rose 7.1% year on year in October, and Tokyo has stepped up its verbal warnings. The yen has not caught a haven bid from the Nvidia news, which says this morning is a single-stock event, not a broad risk-off move.
6C: USD/CAD −0.03%, after the loonie touched its weakest level against the US dollar in at least a year overnight. Lower crude is not helping.
6B: GBP/USD −0.03%, near four-week lows; the GDP beat has not lifted it.
Fed pricing. A December hike, to 4.00-4.25% from 3.75-4.00% (Fed), is close to fully priced. CME FedWatch-based reports put the chance of a half-point move at about 9-11%. We could not cross-check that against a prediction market today. The FOMC decides on 9 December.

Energy & Metals

CL: +0.57% Wednesday, −0.67% overnight. WTI rose on Wednesday as Iran's rejection of US accounts of the talks put back some of the war premium. Brent +1.39% Wednesday, −0.56% overnight.
The mechanism. The premium is draining out again. Saudi Arabia and Iraq have told OPEC that October output is back to pre-war levels, and UAE production is rising, while US-Iran talks remain deadlocked. WTI is nearly 20% below its October peak. CL has ranged about 2.7% overnight, wide for a session with no data. The EIA's weekly report, held a day by the Veterans Day holiday, prints at 12:00 today, a 90-minute shift from its usual 10:30 slot.
GC: −0.74% Wednesday, −1.17% overnight, back below $4,000. Gold gave up early gains on Wednesday and has kept falling.
Why gold is offered. Real-rate pressure, not the dollar: DXY is flat this morning, so this is gold repricing a Fed that is now expected to hike, with some talk of a half-point. Gold has ranged about 1.9% overnight and sits in the lower third of that range. It has not had a Treasury market to trade against since Tuesday, and that changes today.

Where We Left Off

Wednesday's RTH: Nasdaq Composite +1.60%, S&P 500 +1.31%, Russell 2000 +0.88%, Dow +0.49% (AP's figures agree). The Nasdaq-100 rose 2.28%. Technology led by a wide margin; health care, real estate and consumer discretionary finished near flat.
Treasury yields: no new official print. The cash market was closed for Veterans Day, so the latest US Treasury figures are still Tuesday's: 2-year 4.73%, 10-year 4.98%, 30-year 5.35% (US Treasury, 10 November). Early Thursday trading has the 2-year up about 3bp and the 10-year about unchanged, per Saxo.
What happened. CoreWeave's results lit the AI trade. CoreWeave +24.71%, Micron +11.89%, AMD +7.32%, Broadcom +3.99%, Nvidia +2.87%. Microsoft fell 2.26% for a second day.
What carries over: Wednesday's rally happened with no bond market and no Nvidia leadership news. Both have changed. The chip rally was built on CoreWeave's numbers; this morning's question is whether it survives the largest chip stock losing its CEO, and whether equities can hold their gains once rates trade again.

On The Calendar Today

Time ET · Event · Consensus · Prior · Hits

08:30 · Initial jobless claims, w/e 7 Nov · 195K · 189K · USD · ES · GC

08:30 · Continuing claims, w/e 31 Oct · 1,710K · 1,718K · USD

09:00 · Fed's Hammack (2026 voter) · n/a · n/a · USD · rates

10:00 · Existing home sales, Oct · 3.85M · 3.99M · USD · RTY

10:00 · Fed Governor Barr · n/a · n/a · USD · rates

11:30 · Fed's Goolsbee · n/a · n/a · USD · rates

12:00 · EIA crude inventories, w/e 6 Nov (holiday-delayed) · -1.1M · -0.865M · CL

13:00 · 30-year bond auction · n/a · 5.618% · rates · GC · ES

13:10 · Fed's Daly · n/a · n/a · USD · rates

14:00 · Treasury budget statement, Oct · -$298.6B · -$27B · rates

Consensus: TradingEconomics. Fed speaker times from TradingEconomics, cross-checked against Saxo; EIA timing from EIA's own schedule. Kansas City's Schmid is also listed at about 13:30, and New York Fed President Williams speaks at 18:30, after the close. EIA natural gas storage moves to Friday for the holiday. Bill auctions (4, 8 and 17 weeks) are at 11:30. After the close: Cisco and Applied Materials report. Friday: October PPI at 08:30.

The fulcrum is the 30-year auction at 13:00, not claims. Claims have been running near cycle lows and rarely move a market that has already priced a December hike. The auction is the first real test of demand for long bonds since the long end jumped on Tuesday, with the 30-year at 5.35% and the prior auction at 5.618%. A weak auction would land on NQ and GC at the same time; a strong one would ease the pressure on both. Five Fed speakers before the close, two of them voters this year, give the hike-size question plenty of chances to move during the session.

Index Movers

Ranked by index contribution. Wednesday's moves close to close; premarket moves as of about 06:45 ET on light volume.

NVDA +2.87% Wednesday, −7.3% premarket. The largest or second-largest weight in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100. On its own it is worth roughly half a percent on ES and more on NQ, which is why ES is down while RTY and YM are flat. It is a Dow member, but its low share price gives it little weight in YM. Results are due 17 November.
MSFT −2.26% Wednesday, flat premarket. A top-three S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 weight and one of the highest-priced Dow members. Two days of losses while the rest of tech rallied.
AVGO, AMD, MU: the chip bid is splitting. Broadcom is +2.0% premarket after +3.99%, AMD +2.9% after +7.32%, while Micron is −3.45% after +11.89%. All three are Nasdaq-100 members and large S&P 500 weights. The fact that Broadcom and AMD are up with Nvidia down 7% is the most useful read on whether this stays a single-stock event.
CRWV +24.71% Wednesday, −6.9% premarket. Not an index heavyweight, but it is the AI-debt bellwether, and it is giving back part of its gain with Nvidia, its key supplier and an investor.
CSCO +2.66% Wednesday, −0.3% premarket. A Dow and Nasdaq-100 member that reports after today's close, so it matters for tomorrow's YM and NQ more than today's.

What Would Change The Read

Scoring Wednesday's calls. We asked whether NQ would hold above Tuesday's settle into the open: it did, and the Nasdaq-100 closed +2.28%. We asked whether the chip bid would stay broad: it did, with Micron, AMD, Broadcom and Nvidia all higher. Both calls were overtaken overnight.
Whether Nvidia's board acts before or during the session. A confirmed departure, an interim CEO, or a statement of support are three different opens. Until one of them happens, NQ and ES are pricing a probability, not an outcome.
Whether the rest of the chip complex holds. If Broadcom and AMD stay green while Nvidia trades down, the market is treating this as a governance story at one company. If they turn, it is an AI-trade story, and NQ's overnight low is the reference.
The reopened bond market. Equities rallied on Wednesday without any read from Treasuries. If the 2-year keeps climbing from 4.73%, gold's slide and the dollar's strength both have support; if yields slip, gold has the most room to rebound.
The EIA at 12:00 for CL. It is the first official inventory number in a week of headline-driven trade, landing an hour before the auction.

The Bottom Line

This morning is a single-stock event large enough to move the indices. Nvidia's board is reportedly deciding whether its founder keeps his job, and that is worth most of NQ's overnight decline and more than all of ES's; YM and RTY are flat. The rest of the tape is about rates: gold is down more than 1% with the dollar flat, which is a Fed story, and the Treasury market reopens today for the first time since a hot CPI pushed the 10-year near 5%. Claims print at 08:30, but the 30-year auction at 13:00 is the session's real rates test. Today's open hangs on Nvidia's board, and the afternoon on the bond market.

_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._