Calendar › Morning Rundown › 2026-11-11

CoreWeave lifts NQ 1.9%. Bonds take the day off

Rundown · 2026-11-11

The AI trade bounced overnight, and the bond market isn't open to argue with it. CoreWeave's results after Tuesday's close, including a path to adjusted profitability in the first half of 2028, have CRWV +13.4% and Nvidia +4.3% in premarket trade, and index futures have followed: NQ +1.92%, ES +0.87%, RTY +0.74%, YM +0.13% against Tuesday's settles as of about 06:30 ET. That comes a day after a hot October CPI pushed the 2-year to 4.73% (+17bp) and the 10-year to 4.98% (+10bp) (US Treasury). Today is Veterans Day: stocks and futures trade normally, but the cash Treasury market is closed and no federal data prints. The dollar is firmer, DXY +0.30% at its overnight high. Today's equity move gets no read from Treasuries until they reopen Thursday.

Overnight

• Where futures sit, about 06:30 ET, against Tuesday's settles: NQ +1.92% · ES +0.87% · RTY +0.74% · YM +0.13%. This is the reverse of Tuesday: the chip-heavy Nasdaq is leading and the Dow is lagging.
• Ranges since the 18:00 reopen, as reference only. ES has ranged 0.87%, from 0.04% above its settle to 0.91% above, and sits at the top of that range. NQ has ranged 1.90%, from 0.04% above to 1.94% above, and is at the high. Neither has traded below Tuesday's settle all night: this has been a one-way overnight session, not a rotation. YM has been the exception, ranging 0.43% (0.11% below to 0.32% above) and sitting mid-range.
• Asia followed the AI names. The Nikkei rose about 1.3%, a third straight gain, led by chip-equipment and memory names, even as SoftBank fell after its first net loss in nearly two years, driven by a $3.7 billion impairment on US data-centre projects. Korea's Kosdaq jumped about 5%. Hang Seng −0.98%, Shanghai +0.46%.
• Europe is higher with the tech bid. DAX +0.74%, FTSE 100 +0.42%.
• What broke while the US was closed. CoreWeave, above: revenue up 168% on the year, a backlog of $132.5 billion, and a profitability target that speaks to the debt worries that cut the stock by about 40% since early October. Anthropic's IPO terms, set Tuesday, target a valuation of up to $1.4 trillion, with the FT reporting a possible 19 November debut. Iran said the US should stop "fake news" about talks and set out seven conditions for ending the war, which has put a floor under crude this morning.

The Dollar & FX

• DXY +0.30%, at the top of its overnight range. Tuesday's CPI did what Monday's Waller comments couldn't: it moved the dollar. The 2-year's 17bp jump widened the US rate advantage, and with no Treasury trading today, FX is one of the few places that rate move can still be expressed.
• 6E: EUR/USD −0.26%, the pair carrying the move. The euro is the biggest component of DXY and the cleanest expression of a widening US-Europe rate gap after a hot US print. 6B: GBP/USD −0.22% is moving with it.
• 6J: USD/JPY +0.23%, back near 160. Japan's Ministry of Finance confirmed a record intervention in July, so this is where Tokyo's tolerance gets tested. Japanese household spending fell for a tenth straight month, which complicates the Bank of Japan's December hike debate and leaves the yen with little domestic support.
• 6C: USD/CAD +0.25%, with the loonie weaker even as crude bounces. The broad dollar is still the bigger driver of CAD than oil, as it has been all week.
• 6A: AUD/USD +0.01%, flat. The Asian equity rally is offsetting the firmer dollar.
• Fed pricing. A December hike, to 4.00-4.25% from 3.75-4.00% (Fed), is close to fully priced after CPI. CME FedWatch put the chance of a half-point move at about 11.5% as of early this morning, per Reuters. That is one tracker only; we could not cross-check it against a prediction market today. The FOMC decides on 9 December.

Energy & Metals

• CL: −0.93% Tuesday, +0.71% overnight. WTI fell a second session on Tuesday as the diplomatic thaw with Iran took more of the war premium out. Brent: −1.17% Tuesday, its lowest settle since August after briefly trading below $90 intraday, and +1.42% overnight.
• The mechanism. Crude has been trading Iran headlines in both directions, and this morning's headline cut the other way: Tehran rejected US accounts of the talks and set conditions for ending the war. Brent has bounced harder than WTI, which fits a geopolitical premium being added back rather than a change in US supply. CL's overnight range has been 1.84%, wide for a session with no scheduled data. The EIA weekly report is moved to Thursday at 12:00 for the holiday (EIA), so there is no official inventory read today.
• GC: −2.05% Tuesday, +0.74% overnight. Gold took the hot CPI hard on Tuesday as yields jumped and the hike-size question reopened. Goldman Sachs cut its gold forecasts overnight, citing a hawkish Fed.
• Why gold is bid anyway. This is a partial rebound after a 2% drop, and it is happening with the dollar up, so it is not a dollar story. With the cash Treasury market closed, gold is not getting a real-yield signal today. It has ranged 1.0% overnight, all of it above Tuesday's settle. Thursday, when yields can move again, is gold's real test.

Where We Left Off

• Tuesday's RTH: Nasdaq Composite −0.74%, Russell 2000 −0.68%, S&P 500 −0.38%, Dow −0.30% (AP's figures agree). The indices gave back a small part of Monday's rally after the hot CPI.
• Treasury yields Tuesday: 2-year 4.73% (+17bp), 10-year 4.98% (+10bp), 30-year 5.35% (+9bp) (US Treasury, 10 November). The front end has now risen 27bp in three sessions. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said the Fed may need to pick up the pace of rate increases.
• What happened. Rate-sensitive names took the hit: homebuilders fell sharply (Lennar −5.37%, D.R. Horton −3.80%), and precious metals and crypto sold off with gold. Nvidia fell 5.47% for a second day after President Trump said the FBI is investigating its CEO's ties to an alleged Chinese intelligence asset, but Broadcom rose 3.91% and AMD 1.30%: the money stayed in chips.
• What carries over: Tuesday's rates shock has no second day. The 2-year jumped 17bp and the cash market then shut for a day. Equities are rallying overnight with nothing on the rates side to confirm or reject the move. That leaves today as an equity-only session, and Thursday's reopen as the first chance for bonds to reprice.

Yesterday's Data

• CPI +0.4% vs +0.3% est: core 0.3% a third straight month; no annual rate published after the 2025 shutdown.
• ADP weekly hiring 19,750: a second straight gain, putting the monthly pace back near 86,000.

On The Calendar Today

Time ET · Event · Consensus · Prior · Hits

07:00 · MBA mortgage applications, w/e 6 Nov · n/a · -1.2% · USD · rates

All day · Veterans Day: cash Treasury market closed (stocks and futures open) · n/a · n/a · rates · USD · GC

10:30 · EIA crude inventories: moved to Thursday 12:00 · n/a · n/a · CL

Consensus: TradingEconomics. EIA timing from EIA's own schedule. No federal release prints today: the 08:30 and 10:00 slots are empty because of the federal holiday, not by oversight. We found no Fed speaker scheduled today. API's weekly crude estimate usually shifts a day in a holiday week, but we could not confirm its timing. Thursday is loaded: initial and continuing jobless claims at 08:30, the EIA crude report at 12:00, the 30-year bond auction, and several Fed speakers, including Hammack, Barr, Goolsbee, Daly and Williams. PPI is Friday.

There is no fulcrum on today's calendar. This is a structure day: the overnight range and Tuesday's range are the references, and the drivers are earnings, Nvidia headlines and Iran headlines, none of them scheduled. The 30-year auction on Thursday is the next real rates test, with the long end already at 5.35%.

Index Movers

Ranked by index contribution. Tuesday's moves close to close; premarket moves as of about 06:40 ET on light volume.

• NVDA −5.47% Tuesday, +4.3% premarket. One of the largest weights in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100. Two days of losses took about $430-480 billion off its market value, depending on the source; this morning's bounce is the single biggest reason NQ leads. It is a Dow member too, but its share price gives it little weight in YM.
• MSFT −2.20% Tuesday, flat premarket. A top-three weight in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, and one of the highest-priced Dow members, so Tuesday's drop hit YM as well as NQ. It fell on a report that Anthropic is bringing Claude into Google Meet. It is not joining this morning's AI bounce.
• AVGO, AMD, MU: the chip bid broadens. Broadcom is +4.1% premarket after +3.91% Tuesday, AMD +6.5%, Micron +6.5%, Marvell +7.6%. All four are Nasdaq-100 members and the first three are large S&P 500 weights; together they move NQ more than Nvidia's bounce alone.
• CAT −2.39% Tuesday, +3.1% premarket. Among the highest-priced Dow members, so it matters for YM. Defensive Dow names such as Home Depot, Visa, McDonald's and Amgen are each down about 1% premarket, which is why YM is lagging.
• CRWV −0.51% Tuesday, +13.4% premarket. Not an index heavyweight, but it is the catalyst: the most-watched AI-debt name just told the market when it expects to make money.

What Would Change The Read

• Scoring Tuesday's calls. We asked whether Nvidia's problem would become a sector problem: it didn't, with Nvidia −5.47% while Broadcom rose 3.91% and AMD 1.30%. We asked whether core CPI would print 0.3% or higher: it printed 0.3%, but the half-point Waller raised is priced at only about 11.5%, so a hot core moved the hike odds without putting 50bp in play.
• Whether NQ holds above Tuesday's settle into the cash open. Futures have not traded below it all night. That is a reference, not a forecast. If NQ gives back the move with no new rates news, it says the bounce was positioning rather than a new view on AI spending.
• Whether the chip bid stays broad. If AMD, Broadcom and Micron hold their gains while Nvidia fades on new investigation headlines, the market is still separating Nvidia from the sector. If they all fade together, the AI trade is still fragile.
• USD/JPY near 160. A firm dollar with no Treasury market open puts more of the rate story into FX. Any comment from Tokyo would hit 6J first, and the yen is usually where a risk-off turn shows up.
• Iran headlines for CL. Crude has no scheduled data until Thursday's EIA report, so headlines are the only catalyst. Brent's bounce is the premium coming back, and it can come out just as fast.

The Bottom Line

Tuesday was a rates day and today is an equity day, and they don't meet until Thursday. CoreWeave gave the AI names a reason to bounce, and futures have taken it in one direction all night, with ES and NQ at their overnight highs and never below Tuesday's settle. The dollar is the one market still carrying Tuesday's CPI, firmer and led by the euro. Everything the overnight rally is ignoring, a 2-year up 27bp in three sessions and a 10-year close to 5%, is still there when bonds reopen tomorrow with claims, a 30-year auction and a line of Fed speakers.

_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._