Calendar › CPI › 2026-11-10

CPI +0.4% (vs +0.3% Est) — Core 0.3% a Third Month, No Annual Rate Published

Fundamentals · 2026-11-10

CPI +0.4% m/m against 0.3% expected, after 0.6%; core +0.3% against 0.2% expected, a third straight 0.3%. No 12-month rates: BLS collected no October 2025 data during the 2025 shutdown, so the 3.9% headline and 2.8% core y/y forecasts have nothing to be scored against. Unrounded from the index levels, headline 0.350%, on the rounding line, and core 0.296%, softer than September's 0.335%. Services less rent of shelter +0.45% from 0.31%, the fastest since May; core goods +0.16% from 0.25%, with used cars −1.2%. Shelter +0.3% after 0.4%, owners' equivalent rent 0.3%, rent 0.2%. Energy +0.7% after 5.2%, but −0.4% before seasonal adjustment; gasoline +1.0% adjusted, −0.7% unadjusted. Food +0.5% after unchanged, contributing more than energy. Core's three-month annualized pace 3.7%, from 3.4%.

What It Changes

Both monthly numbers came in a tenth hot. Headline 0.4% against a 0.3% consensus (TradingEconomics) and core 0.3% against 0.2% est. Core has now printed 0.3% for August, September and October.
It keeps the December hike on track and keeps the half-point in the conversation. Governor Waller said this morning he backs a December hike even on a cool print and that a half-point could be warranted on a hot one. This was hot on the decimals that are published.
But it was a softer 0.3 than September's. Core was 0.296% unrounded against 0.335% a month ago, and headline 0.350% sat exactly on the line between 0.3% and 0.4%. The heat moved out of goods and shelter and into services outside shelter.
The annual rate is gone for this month. BLS could not publish 12-month changes for most series, so there is no y/y beat or miss; the run-rates carry the read, and core's three-month pace rose to 3.7%.
It is the last CPI before the 8-9 December FOMC. November CPI is not due until 10 December, the day after the decision.

Impact

USD — Bullish — two hot monthly decimals and a third 0.3% core, the evidence the hawks needed for December, on a morning a Fed governor had already backed a hike.
The first FX read was a dollar bid: by 08:37 ET, EUR/USD −0.25% and USD/JPY +0.13% against 08:29, before the print.
The 2-year closed Monday at 4.56% (US Treasury) and was up about 6bp overnight on Waller, per The Open; a hot pair adds to a front end already pricing a hike at about 94%.
US Indices (ES / NQ / YM / RTY) — Slight bearish — higher-for-longer weighs most on NQ, the long-duration index, which The Open had already leading lower before the print.
The softer unrounded core and the cooling in goods and shelter limit the damage; this is a hot print that does not change the size of the hike on its own.
Gold (GC) — Mixed, lean bearish — a hot core lifts the real-rate path and firms the dollar, and The Open had gold already offered on Waller.
The supporting leg is the shape of it: services outside shelter at 0.45% is the stickiest kind of inflation, and that keeps a bid under gold as an inflation hedge if yields stall.
6J: USD/JPY — Bullish — the pair The Open called the purest expression of front-end yields, and the one where Japan's tolerance gets tested on a hot print.

Inside The Number

The Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in October on a seasonally adjusted basis after 0.6% in September. Consensus was 0.3%. Core, all items less food and energy, rose 0.3% for a third month against a 0.2% consensus. BLS's own summary leads with shelter, which rose 0.3% and accounted for more than 30% of the monthly increase.

The bombshell is in the box BLS printed under Table A. Because no October 2025 survey data was collected during the 2025 lapse in appropriations, BLS says it cannot publish 12-month changes for October 2026 for most series. That takes out the 3.9% headline and 2.8% core y/y forecasts entirely: they cannot be beaten or missed, and any annual figure quoted today is an estimate by someone other than BLS. A handful of series did have October 2025 prices: gasoline is up 37.4% on the year, regular unleaded 38.6%, used cars down 3.3%, new vehicles up 0.7%, wireless service up 3.0% and postage up 13.3%.

Unrounded, the hot decimals are thinner than they look. From BLS's seasonally adjusted index levels, the headline rose 0.350%, right on the rounding line, and core 0.296%. September's core was 0.335% unrounded, so October's 0.3 is the softer of the two. Both halves of core cooled or held at the decimal: services less energy services rose 0.34% after 0.37%, and core goods 0.16% after 0.25%.

Under the core, the mix changed sharply. Services less rent of shelter, the measure often called supercore, rose 0.45% after 0.31% in both August and September, its fastest month since May. The drivers were transportation services +0.8%, with motor vehicle insurance +0.7% after 0.1% and intracity transportation +6.6%; hospital services +0.8% after 0.7%, a second heavy month; recreation services +0.9%, with admissions and club memberships both up 1.2%; and dental services +0.8%. Against that, health insurance fell 1.8%, car and truck rental fell 5.7% after jumping 5.4%, and airline fares slowed to +0.4% from 1.2%.

Shelter and goods were the cooler side. Shelter rose 0.3% after 0.4%, with owners' equivalent rent 0.3% and rent 0.2%, both unchanged from September, and lodging away from home +0.6% after 2.0%. Unrounded, shelter rose 0.305% after 0.391%. Core goods were held down by used cars −1.2%, the first fall since June, and apparel +0.1%, while furniture and bedding rose 1.2% after two declines and household furnishings and supplies 0.7%. Prescription drugs rose 0.3% after falling 1.2%.

The energy number is a seasonal-adjustment story. Energy rose 0.7% adjusted but fell 0.4% before adjustment. Gasoline rose 1.0% adjusted after 9.1% in September, but BLS notes that before seasonal adjustment gasoline prices fell 0.7%. October is normally a month when pump prices fall, so the seasonal factor turned a small decline into a rise. Electricity rose 0.9% and fuel oil 2.0%; piped gas fell 0.8%.

Food did more for the headline than energy did. The food index rose 0.5% after being unchanged, contributing about 0.067 percentage points against energy's 0.054. Food away from home rose 0.5%, with full-service meals +0.7%, and food at home 0.4%, led by beef +0.9%, lettuce +7.9% and snacks +1.0%. Coffee fell 3.6%.

Step back to the run-rates, which carry this month's read. Core's monthly path since March reads 0.2, 0.4, 0.2, 0.0, 0.2, 0.3, 0.3, 0.3. On the index levels, the three-month annualized rate rose to 3.7% from 3.4% a month ago, while the six-month rate eased to 2.7% from 2.9% as April's 0.4% dropped out. Three straight 0.3s is a trend, not a month; the softer unrounded figure is the only reason to call October a shade cooler than September rather than the same.

The Internals

The four calendar numbers. Consensus is TradingEconomics:

Measure · October 2026 · Consensus · September 2026 · Result

CPI m/m, seasonally adjusted · Up 0.4% · Up 0.3% · Up 0.6% · Hot by a tenth

CPI y/y, unadjusted · Not published · Up 3.9% · Up 3.7% · No October 2025 data

Core CPI m/m, seasonally adjusted · Up 0.3% · Up 0.2% · Up 0.3% · Hot, third month at 0.3%

Core CPI y/y, unadjusted · Not published · Up 2.8% · Up 2.6% · No October 2025 data

Unrounded monthly changes, from BLS seasonally adjusted index levels:

Series · October · September · August · Read

All items · 0.350% · 0.649% · 0.396% · On the rounding line

All items less food and energy · 0.296% · 0.335% · 0.290% · A softer 0.3 than September

Services less energy services · 0.340% · 0.369% · 0.327% · Steady

Commodities less food and energy · 0.160% · 0.251% · 0.106% · Cooled

Shelter · 0.305% · 0.391% · 0.264% · Cooled

Services less rent of shelter · 0.451% · 0.305% · 0.305% · The hot spot

Contribution to the headline. Weights are relative importance as of September 2026, contributions use the rounded monthly changes, and shares are of their 0.358-point sum:

Component · Weight · Monthly change · Contribution · Share of the month

Core, all items less food and energy · 78.905% · Up 0.3% · 0.237 points · 66%

Food · 13.447% · Up 0.5% · 0.067 points · 19%

Energy · 7.649% · Up 0.7% · 0.054 points · 15%

Of which: shelter · 35.238% · Up 0.3% · 0.106 points · 30%

Of which: services less energy services · 60.098% · Up 0.3% · 0.180 points · 50%

Of which: commodities less food and energy · 18.807% · Up 0.2% · 0.038 points · 11%

Of which: gasoline alone · 4.080% · Up 1.0% · 0.041 points · 11%

Run-rates, annualized from BLS seasonally adjusted index levels:

Window · Core annualized · Headline annualized · A month ago, core

One month · 3.6% · 4.3% · 4.1%

Three months · 3.7% · 5.7% · 3.4%

Six months · 2.7% · 3.1% · 2.9%

Twelve months · Not published · Not published · 2.6%

The energy block:

Series · Weight · October, adjusted · October, unadjusted · September, adjusted

Energy, all · 7.649% · Up 0.7% · Down 0.4% · Up 5.2%

Gasoline, all types · 4.080% · Up 1.0% · Down 0.7% · Up 9.1%

Fuel oil · 0.131% · Up 2.0% · Up 5.8% · Up 15.3%

Electricity · 2.513% · Up 0.9% · Down 0.7% · Up 0.2%

Utility piped gas · 0.732% · Down 0.8% · Down 0.1% · Down 0.3%

Shelter, which is 35.2% of the index:

Line · Weight · October · September · August

Shelter, total · 35.238% · Up 0.3% · Up 0.4% · Up 0.3%

Owners' equivalent rent · 25.853% · Up 0.3% · Up 0.3% · Up 0.2%

Rent of primary residence · 7.707% · Up 0.2% · Up 0.2% · Up 0.2%

Lodging away from home · 1.392% · Up 0.6% · Up 2.0% · Up 2.4%

Tenants' and household insurance · 0.286% · Up 0.1% · Up 0.2% · Unchanged

Where The Inflation Is

What rose in core, all seasonally adjusted except where BLS does not adjust the series:

Category · Weight · October · September

Transportation services · 6.256% · Up 0.8% · Up 0.6%

Motor vehicle insurance · 2.510% · Up 0.7% · Up 0.1%

Hospital services · 2.163% · Up 0.8% · Up 0.7%

Recreation services · 3.127% · Up 0.9% · Up 0.3%

Dental services · 0.912% · Up 0.8% · Up 0.5%

Physicians' services · 1.648% · Up 0.4% · Unchanged

Furniture and bedding · 0.833% · Up 1.2% · Down 0.8%

Household furnishings and supplies · 3.294% · Up 0.7% · Down 0.2%

Medical care commodities · 1.378% · Up 0.5% · Down 0.7%

Motor vehicle maintenance and repair · 1.065% · Up 0.6% · Up 0.7%

Intracity transportation · 0.366% · Up 6.6% · Up 2.2%

Televisions · 0.107% · Up 3.3% · Down 1.9%

What fell:

Category · Weight · October · September

Used cars and trucks · 2.670% · Down 1.2% · Up 0.7%

Health insurance · 0.811% · Down 1.8% · Down 0.2%

Car and truck rental · 0.153% · Down 5.7% · Up 5.4%

Gardening and lawncare services · 0.393% · Down 1.8% · Up 1.1%

Internet services · 0.889% · Down 0.5% · Down 1.3%

Wireless telephone services · 1.361% · Down 0.2% · Unchanged

Women's and girls' apparel · 0.986% · Down 0.6% · Down 0.8%

Coffee · 0.222% · Down 3.6% · Up 0.9%

The grocery and restaurant bill:

Group · Weight · October · September

Food at home · 8.162% · Up 0.4% · Down 0.1%

Food away from home · 5.285% · Up 0.5% · Up 0.2%

Full service meals · 2.347% · Up 0.7% · Up 0.3%

Beef and veal · 0.624% · Up 0.9% · Down 1.0%

Fruits and vegetables · 1.276% · Up 0.6% · Up 0.5%

Dairy and related products · 0.730% · Up 0.6% · Down 0.9%

Nonalcoholic beverages · 0.990% · Down 0.3% · Up 0.9%

Eggs · 0.116% · Up 0.6% · Down 1.3%

The few series with a 12-month change this month, unadjusted:

Series · 12-month change · Read

Gasoline, all types · Up 37.4% · The war premium, a year on

Gasoline, unleaded regular · Up 38.6% · The pump price most people pay

Used cars and trucks · Down 3.3% · Still a drag on core goods

New vehicles · Up 0.7% · Barely moving

Wireless telephone services · Up 3.0% · After a 5.9% jump in August

Postage · Up 13.3% · Up 1.7% this month

Against This Morning's Open

The Open set the line plainly: "A hot core, 0.3% or more after September's 0.3%, puts the half-point Waller raised on the table, and that hits the 2-year, USD/JPY and gold first."
Core printed 0.3%, so by The Open's own line this was the hot outcome, and USD/JPY moved first as it said. The softer unrounded 0.296% is the caveat: it is a hot decimal, not a hotter month than September.
The Open's calendar carried y/y forecasts of 3.9% and 2.8%; BLS published no 12-month rates, so those two lines had nothing to resolve.

What This Sets Up

Next CPI: Thursday 10 December, for November, the day after the 8-9 December FOMC decision. This is the last CPI the committee sees before it decides.
Confirms the read: a fourth 0.3% core in November and services less rent of shelter holding above 0.4%, which would make the services shift a trend rather than a month.
Breaks it: core at 0.2% with supercore back near 0.3%, which would make October's 0.45% a one-off from insurance, hospitals and recreation.
Watch whether 12-month rates come back. Today's BLS note covers October only; check the December release for which annual rates it can publish.

What Is This?

What it is: The Consumer Price Index, published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, measures the change in prices paid by urban consumers for a fixed basket of goods and services. Prices are collected each month in 75 urban areas from about 6,000 housing units and about 22,000 retail and service establishments, weighted by their share of consumer spending. Core CPI excludes food and energy.
Why it matters: With the funds rate at 3.75-4.00% (Fed) and a December hike priced at about 94% before the print, CPI decides how fast the Fed tightens. Core, and especially services outside shelter, is the part the committee reads for persistence, because it does not move with oil.
How to read it: The monthly change is seasonally adjusted and rounded to one decimal, so a 0.3% can be anything from 0.25% to 0.35%; the unrounded figure from the index levels tells you which. Multiply a monthly change by about 12 for a rough annual pace. The 12-month change is normally unadjusted; this month BLS could not publish it for most series because October 2025 prices were never collected.

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_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._