Crude +0.9M vs -0.3M Est — Distillates Draw 2.3M to 15% Below Last Year

Fundamentals · 2026-09-30

Commercial crude +0.922M to 427.3M in the week ended 25 September (vs -0.3M est; API +1.02M), 2.6% above a year ago; Cushing +0.553M to 24.3M; Gulf Coast +3.42M, West Coast -2.33M; refinery runs -554 kb/d to 16.26 mb/d, utilization 92.5% from 94.0%, a second weekly fall; crude exports +289 kb/d to 3.57 mb/d, imports -179 kb/d; adjustment -238 kb/d; SPR -0.785M to 283.8M, 30.2% below a year ago; gasoline -1.68M (vs -0.5M est), 7.4% below a year ago; distillate -2.25M (vs -0.2M est) to 105.2M, 14.9% below a year ago; jet fuel -1.85M; total products supplied 21.5 mb/d, +450 kb/d; total commercial stocks -7.04M.

What It Changes

• Crude built modestly while products drew hard. Commercial crude rose 922,000 barrels against a 300,000 barrel draw expected, but gasoline, distillate and jet fuel fell a combined 5.8 million barrels. Total commercial petroleum stocks fell 7.0 million.
• Refiners are the reason. Runs fell 554 kb/d for a second week and utilization dropped to 92.5% from 94.0%, consistent with the start of autumn maintenance. Less crude going into refineries leaves crude in tanks and takes product off the market.
• Distillate is the tight spot. Stocks fell 2.25 million barrels to 14.9% below a year ago, a wider gap than last week's 12.7%, going into heating season.
• The flows point to a bigger crude build than the headline. EIA's balancing adjustment took about 1.7 million barrels off the week; on observed flows alone, commercial crude would have risen about 2.6 million.

Impact

• Crude (CL) — Mixed — a crude build against an expected draw is bearish on its own, but the product draws and falling distillate cover support refining margins and product prices.
• November WTI was $91.31 at 10:29, spiked to $91.74 in the release minute and was back at $91.22 by the minute's close (TradingView 1-minute bars). It traded about $91.40 by 10:55. The report did not change the day's direction.
• Per The Open, November WTI settled $89.38 on Tuesday and API had reported a 1.0 million barrel build; EIA's build was close to API's, so part of this was priced overnight.
• November Brent expires at today's close, and front-month Brent charts will roll to December from tomorrow.
• USD — Neutral — inventories do not price the dollar.
• US Indices (ES / NQ / YM / RTY) — Neutral — the product draws matter for refiners and transport costs, not for the index level.
• Gold (GC) — Neutral — no mechanism worth writing down.

Inside The Number

Commercial crude inventories excluding the SPR rose 922,000 barrels to 427.320 million in the week ended 25 September, against a consensus draw of 300,000 barrels (Trading Economics; The Open carried a 0.7 million draw). The API reported a 1.02 million barrel build on Tuesday evening. Stocks are 2.6% above the same week last year. Including the SPR, total crude was almost unchanged, up 137,000 barrels to 711.1 million and still 13.6% below a year ago.

Refiners took less crude for a second week. Crude inputs fell 554 kb/d to 16.257 mb/d, and utilization fell 1.6 points to 92.5%, after falling from 96.8% to 94.0% the week before. The biggest drops were on the East Coast, where utilization fell 6.7 points to 82.5%, and in the Midwest, down 3.4 points to 85.6%. The Gulf Coast held at 95.9%. Runs are still 0.6% above a year ago. Falling utilization in late September is consistent with the start of autumn maintenance.

Trade moved the other way from last week. Crude exports rose 289 kb/d to 3.570 mb/d, after falling 1,550 kb/d last week, and imports fell 179 kb/d to 5.698 mb/d. Net crude imports fell 468 kb/d to 2.128 mb/d. On its own, that would have drawn stocks; lower refinery runs more than offset it.

The adjustment took barrels out this time. EIA's balancing item printed -238 kb/d, after +215 last week. Over seven days that is about 1.7 million barrels. Without it, the observed flows (production, net imports and refinery inputs) point to a commercial build of roughly 2.6 million barrels, not 0.9 million. Last week the adjustment added about 1.5 million to the headline; this week it subtracted a similar amount.

Regionally, the Gulf Coast built and the West Coast drew. Gulf Coast stocks rose 3.417 million barrels to 247.5 million, and the Midwest rose 1.040 million, including a 553,000 barrel build at Cushing to 24.301 million, now 3.6% above a year ago. The West Coast drew 2.334 million, the Rocky Mountain region 823,000, and the East Coast 378,000.

Products drew across the board. Gasoline fell 1.683 million barrels to 204.4 million, against a 500,000 draw expected, and is 7.4% below a year ago. Distillate fell 2.251 million barrels to 105.2 million, against a 200,000 draw expected; ultra-low-sulphur diesel alone fell 1.974 million. Jet fuel fell 1.854 million. Propane was the exception, rising 1.777 million. Total commercial petroleum stocks fell 7.043 million barrels.

Demand firmed. Total products supplied rose 450 kb/d to 21.500 mb/d. Over four weeks, products supplied averaged 20.779 mb/d, 2.1% above a year ago. Distillate demand was 3.948 mb/d, and its four-week average is 5.2% above last year. Gasoline demand eased 159 kb/d to 8.689 mb/d. Jet fuel demand rose 159 kb/d. Product exports fell 378 kb/d to 7.494 mb/d.

The SPR fell another 785,000 barrels to 283.767 million, 30.2% below a year ago. The drawdown ran at 112 kb/d, about double the 58 kb/d of each of the previous two weeks.

The Internals

Stocks, in millions of barrels, week ended 25 September:

Series · This week · Last week · Change · Year ago · vs year ago

Commercial crude excluding SPR · 427.320 · 426.398 · +0.922 · 416.546 · +2.6%

Strategic Petroleum Reserve · 283.767 · 284.552 · -0.785 · 406.700 · -30.2%

Total crude including SPR · 711.087 · 710.950 · +0.137 · 823.246 · -13.6%

Cushing, Oklahoma · 24.301 · 23.748 · +0.553 · 23.467 · +3.6%

Total motor gasoline · 204.362 · 206.046 · -1.683 · 220.694 · -7.4%

Distillate fuel oil · 105.180 · 107.431 · -2.251 · 123.577 · -14.9%

Kerosene-type jet fuel · 43.612 · 45.466 · -1.854 · 44.339 · -1.6%

Propane and propylene · 109.647 · 107.870 · +1.777 · 103.376 · +6.1%

Residual fuel oil · 23.432 · 23.723 · -0.291 · 20.628 · +13.6%

Fuel ethanol · 23.865 · 24.683 · -0.818 · 22.764 · +4.8%

Total stocks excluding SPR · 1,244.313 · 1,251.356 · -7.043 · 1,288.387 · -3.4%

Commercial crude by region, millions of barrels:

Region · This week · Change · Year ago · vs year ago

East Coast (PADD 1) · 7.994 · -0.378 · 7.010 · +14.0%

Midwest (PADD 2) · 105.110 · +1.040 · 101.583 · +3.5%

Gulf Coast (PADD 3) · 247.497 · +3.417 · 238.342 · +3.8%

Rocky Mountain (PADD 4) · 22.496 · -0.823 · 22.819 · -1.4%

West Coast (PADD 5) · 44.224 · -2.334 · 46.792 · -5.5%

Crude balance, thousand barrels per day:

Line · This week · Last week · Change · Year ago

Domestic production · 13,955 · 13,939 · +16 · 13,505

Imports · 5,698 · 5,877 · -179 · 5,833

Exports · 3,570 · 3,281 · +289 · 3,751

Net imports · 2,128 · 2,596 · -468 · 2,082

Refinery crude inputs · 16,257 · 16,811 · -554 · 16,168

Adjustment · -238 · 215 · -453 · 666

Commercial stock change · 132 · 424 · -292 · 256

SPR stock change · -112 · -58 · -54 · 106

Refinery utilization by region:

Region · This week · Last week · Change · Year ago

United States · 92.5% · 94.0% · -1.6pp · 91.4%

East Coast · 82.5% · 89.2% · -6.7pp · 84.8%

Midwest · 85.6% · 89.0% · -3.4pp · 94.9%

Gulf Coast · 95.9% · 96.5% · -0.6pp · 90.8%

Rocky Mountain · 97.3% · 95.3% · +2.1pp · 99.3%

West Coast · 93.4% · 94.5% · -1.1pp · 88.5%

Products supplied, thousand barrels per day:

Product · This week · Change · 4-week average · vs year ago, 4 weeks

Total · 21,500 · +450 · 20,779 · +2.1%

Finished motor gasoline · 8,689 · -159 · 8,721 · +0.3%

Distillate fuel oil · 3,948 · -26 · 3,776 · +5.2%

Kerosene-type jet fuel · 1,809 · +159 · 1,761 · +6.5%

Propane and propylene · 1,085 · +321 · 886 · +12.6%

Against This Morning's Open

• The Open carried EIA crude at a 0.7 million barrel draw and noted API's build of about 1.0 million against an expected 1.9 million draw. EIA printed a 0.9 million build, in line with API rather than the consensus.
• The Open framed the day's crude story around recovering Middle East exports and November Brent's expiry. This report adds a domestic refinery slowdown to that picture: more crude in tanks, less product.

What This Sets Up

• Next EIA weekly petroleum report — Wednesday, 7 October 2026, 10:30 ET, with API the evening before.
• The test is refinery runs. A third weekly fall would confirm maintenance season and point to further crude builds; a rebound in utilization would reverse that.
• Watch distillate. At 14.9% below a year ago and falling into heating season, another large draw would widen the gap further.
• The adjustment has swung from +577 to +215 to -238 kb/d over three weeks. The observed flows, not the headline, are the better read until it settles.

What Is This?

• What it is: The Energy Information Administration's Weekly Petroleum Status Report, released Wednesdays at 10:30 ET. It reports US crude oil and refined product inventories, refinery activity, production, imports, exports and products supplied (a proxy for demand) for the week ending the previous Friday. The inventory figures come from surveys of refineries, pipelines and terminals.
• Why it matters: It is the most closely watched weekly read on the physical oil market, and crude has been driven this month by Middle East supply disruptions and their partial reversal. Inventory builds and draws show whether the physical market is loosening or tightening. Distillate stocks also matter for inflation, since diesel and heating oil feed into transport and household costs.
• How to read it: The headline is the weekly change in commercial crude stocks excluding the SPR, compared with consensus and with the API's report the night before. A build is bearish for crude, a draw bullish. Read it together with refinery runs, exports and imports, which explain most weekly swings. The "adjustment" line is EIA's balancing item for barrels it cannot account for, and large values mean the headline may not match physical flows. Products supplied measures product leaving primary storage, not final consumption.

Want the full explainer? Economic News Events, Explained breaks down this release and every other one we cover, in plain English.

_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._