Williams said no rush. October is a coin flip

Rundown · 2026-09-30

The FOMC's vice chair took the urgency out of October, and the front end moved more than any other market. John Williams said on Tuesday afternoon that "there is no need for urgency" after the September hike, and put his next move "late this year". October hike odds fell from about 70% to about 45% on CME FedWatch, per Seeking Alpha and other reports. The 2-year closed at 4.883%, down 5.2bp. The 10-year barely moved (5.249%), after touching a new 19-year high of 5.297% earlier in the day. WTI fell $3.22 (-3.48%) to $89.38 as Middle East exports recovered. Gold is +$40.70 at $4,220.40 this morning as yields ease. Index futures are flat: ES 7,737.25 (+0.07%), NQ -0.06%. Today is the heaviest calendar of the week: ADP at 08:15, August PCE and the final Q2 GDP at 08:30, Chicago PMI at 09:45, EIA crude at 10:30, November Brent expiry at the close, and Micron after it.

Overnight

Against Tuesday's settles, as of about 06:15 ET (delayed quotes, MarketWatch). ES (Dec) 7,737.25, +5.25 (+0.07%) from 7,732.00 · NQ 30,593.50, -19.75 (-0.06%) from 30,613.25 · YM 51,756, +54 (+0.10%) from 51,702 · RTY 2,828.2, -1.0 (-0.04%) from 2,829.2
Tuesday's settles reconcile with Monday's. ES -14.75 (-0.19%) · NQ +47.00 (+0.15%) · YM -135 (-0.26%) · RTY -10.9 (-0.38%)
Reference levels, and nothing more. Globex ranges so far: ES 7,734.00-7,756.50 · NQ 30,539.75-30,737.00 · YM 51,740-51,997 · RTY 2,827.5-2,842.2. All four are trading in the lower part of their ranges, and ES, YM and RTY are within a few points of their overnight lows. PCE at 08:30 prints into these ranges
Asia rallied, led by Tokyo. Nikkei 66,753.72, +1,272.45 (+1.94%) (MarketWatch; another report has the close at 66,866, +2.1%). SoftBank rose about 6.6% on reports that OpenAI is seeking at least $30 billion at a $1.4 trillion valuation, and chip names followed. Hang Seng 24,613.27, +0.37% · Shanghai Composite 3,842.19, +0.31% · ASX 200 +0.92%. China's official manufacturing PMI returned to expansion at 50.1 (49.8 prior, 50.1 expected), and the private survey was 52.1
Europe is flat. DAX 25,352.73, -46.48 (-0.18%) · FTSE 100 10,656.43, +19.72 (+0.19%) · CAC 40 -0.57% · STOXX 600 unchanged. Europe is waiting for US PCE like everyone else
Iran: no formal US reply, and a ship was hit. Foreign Minister Araghchi left New York on Tuesday saying he expected an official US response by the end of the day. CBS reports none had arrived. Qatari mediators met him on Monday. UKMTO reported that a vessel was struck by an apparent projectile in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday evening. The fire was put out, the crew were safe and the ship continued. Trump said he had "offered them NOTHING", denying reports of sanctions relief

The Dollar & FX

DXY 101.18, -0.19 (-0.19%) from Tuesday's 101.37 (ICE, via MarketWatch), range 101.17-101.47, and trading at the low of that range. The 52-week high is 101.80. Williams did what the data had not done all week: he took some of the front end's rate premium away, and the dollar is giving back a little of it. Investrade printed the DXY at 101.50; that is an intraday figure, and the brief uses the ICE close
6B is carrying the move. GBP/USD 1.3296, +0.0064 (+0.48%) from 1.3232, range 1.3222-1.3296, and at the high. The UK's Q2 GDP was revised up to 0.5% from 0.4% this morning, which supports bets on a Bank of England hike on 5 November, per FXStreet and ExchangeRates.org.uk
6E has come back off a new low. EUR/USD 1.1362, +0.0019 (+0.17%) from 1.1343, range 1.1329-1.1367. The pair set a new 52-week low of 1.1312 on Tuesday, below the 1.1325 we flagged, and has recovered 50 pips since
6J is firmer. USD/JPY 156.93, -0.36 (-0.23%) from 157.29, range 156.38-157.46. A softer front end in the US and Tokyo's intervention warnings are pulling in the same direction this morning
6A and 6C. AUD/USD 0.6972, -0.0013 (-0.19%) from 0.6985, range 0.6958-0.6996. China's PMI beat has not lifted it. USD/CAD 1.4182, -0.0009 (-0.06%) from 1.4191, range 1.4175-1.4204. Canada's July GDP, released Tuesday, was essentially flat. Crude is up 1% this morning after Tuesday's 3.5% fall
October hike odds are now a coin flip. About 45% on CME FedWatch after Williams, down from about 70% before he spoke, and Kalshi has about 55% for no change. Both figures are from press reports; the desk did not pull either tool directly. The Fed raised to 3.75%-4.00% on 16 September. Richmond's Barkin speaks at 13:30

Energy & Metals

CL: November settled $89.38, -$3.22 (-3.48%) on Tuesday. Investrade, Reuters figures carried by Yahoo Finance and MarketWatch agree, and it reconciles with Monday's $92.60. It is $90.28, +$0.90 (+1.01%) now, range $88.58-$90.61, and near the high of that range. December is $88.32, so the November-December spread is about $1.96, down from about $3.56 on Tuesday morning. A narrowing spread means the market is paying less for prompt barrels
The mechanism: exports are coming back. Wire reports have Middle East crude exports recovering, with Saudi East-West pipeline flows up again. API reported a build of about 1.0 million barrels on Tuesday evening against an expected 1.9 million draw, per OilPrice.com. Today's EIA figure at 10:30 is expected to show a 0.7 million draw
Brent: November expires at today's close. November settled $102.59, -$2.69 on Tuesday. December settled $96.16 and is $97.24, +$1.08, range $95.12-$97.70. MarketWatch's continuous chart has already rolled to December. After today, every front-month Brent chart will show a price about $6 lower than it did on Monday. That is the roll, not a move
GC: December settled $4,179.70, +$11.30 (+0.27%) on Tuesday. Investrade and MarketWatch agree, and it reconciles with Monday's $4,168.40. It is $4,220.40, +$40.70 (+0.97%) now, range $4,197.60-$4,234.00. This is the first morning this week that gold is rising with yields falling, and that matches the pattern of the last week: gold is trading as a rate asset
Rates. 10-year 5.229%, -2.0bp from Tuesday's 5.249% close (Tullett, via MarketWatch; CNBC has about 5.25%), range 5.210%-5.250%. Tuesday's high of 5.297% is the new 52-week high. 2-year 4.881% from 4.883%, after -5.2bp on Tuesday. The 30-year traded above 5.6% on Tuesday, its highest since 2002, per CNBC. 2s10s is about 35bp, from about 30bp on Monday. Investrade printed the 10-year at 5.282% and the 2-year at 4.934%. Both look like snapshots taken before Williams spoke, and both conflict with MarketWatch and CNBC. The brief uses MarketWatch

Where We Left Off

Tuesday's RTH close, per AP: Dow 51,349.92 (-131.59, -0.3%) · S&P 500 7,670.84 (-12.85, -0.2%) · Nasdaq Composite 26,797.54 (-22.84, -0.1%) · Russell 2000 2,807.92 (-9.99, -0.4%). All four reconcile with Monday's published closes, and MarketWatch matches all four independently. The Nasdaq-100 rose +0.21%
A quiet tape under a loud curve. Utilities led (the Dow Utility Average rose +1.14%) as long yields hit new highs. Consumer confidence fell to 81.9 from 88.6, its lowest since 2014, against a forecast of about 89. Consumers' 12-month inflation expectations rose to 6.1% (average). The VIX closed at 16.03
What carries over: Williams moved the next hike from October toward December, but he also said energy effects on inflation will be "somewhat larger and longer-lasting". Today's PCE is the first test of which half of that the market believes

Yesterday's Data

On The Calendar Today

Time ET · Event · Consensus · Prior · Hits

07:00 · MBA mortgage applications · n/a · -1.5% (30Y 7.12%) · USD

08:15 · ADP employment, Sep · 49K-70K · 38K · USD · GC · ES/NQ

08:30 · Core PCE m/m, Aug · 0.3% · 0.2% · USD · GC · ES/NQ

08:30 · Core PCE y/y, Aug · 3.3%-3.4% · 3.3% · USD · GC · ES/NQ

08:30 · PCE m/m, Aug · 0.3%-0.4% · 0.2% · USD · GC

08:30 · PCE y/y, Aug · 3.7%-3.8% · 3.7% · USD · GC

08:30 · Personal income m/m, Aug · 0.3%-0.4% · 0.4% · USD

08:30 · Personal spending m/m, Aug · 0.6%-0.8% · 0.2% · USD · ES

08:30 · GDP Q2, third estimate · 1.5% · 1.5% · USD · ES

08:30 · Advance goods trade balance, Aug · -115B · -118.8B · USD

08:30 · Advance wholesale inventories, Aug · 1.1% · 1.3% · USD

09:45 · Chicago PMI, Sep · 46.9-51.2 · 47.1 · USD · ES

10:30 · EIA crude stocks · -0.7M · +2.969M · CL

11:30 · 17-week bill auction · n/a · 4.135% · USD

13:30 · Fed's Barkin (Richmond) · n/a · n/a · USD · GC

Close · November Brent expiry · n/a · 102.59 settle · CL

After close · Micron fiscal Q4 · EPS 31.6 · rev 51.2B · guide 31 · 50B · NQ · ES

Any time · US reply to Iran's Hormuz plan · n/a · n/a · CL · GC · USD · ES

The calendar was enumerated from TradingView and Trading Economics. They agree on every release and disagree on several consensus figures, so the table shows a range where they differ (the lower figure is usually Trading Economics'). Wednesday's fixed cadence (MBA at 07:00, EIA crude at 10:30) is in. The Q2 GDP prior is the second estimate of 1.5%, per BEA; the 2.1% some calendars show is Q1. USDA's quarterly grain stocks at 12:00 are left out. Micron consensus is the average of several previews. Its own guidance was $50B ± $1B in revenue and $31 ± $1 in EPS.

The fulcrum is core PCE at 08:30. The market has already had August CPI (0.4% m/m), so the surprise, if there is one, is in how BEA maps it. A 0.3% core reading is what is priced. A 0.4% would argue against Williams' patience and put October back in play. A 0.2% would support it. Micron after the close is the second event, and it moves NQ rather than the rate path.

Later this week: Thursday brings claims and ISM manufacturing. Friday brings September payrolls, with Trading Economics at 84K against 162K in August.

Index Movers

Ranked by index contribution. The Dow is price-weighted, so $1 in any constituent is worth roughly 5.9 Dow points (divisor about 0.168, secondary source; treat these as approximate). Prices are from MarketWatch; pre-market quotes are from about 06:30 ET.

AAPL $329.40, -$9.00 (-2.66%) on Tuesday. At a $4.81T market cap, that was roughly -$131B in value, the largest drag on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq-100, and about -54 Dow points, the largest drag on YM. Bank of America warned that AI agents, Meta's Muse among them, could move online shopping away from Apple's ecosystem. It is flat pre-market
META $738.79, +$23.17 (+3.24%), roughly +$51B in value and the largest positive contribution among the names the desk checked. It rebounded from two days of selling on the same Muse story that hit Apple. That is why NDX rose while the S&P fell. It is -0.43% pre-market
NVDA $227.21, -$1.65 (-0.72%), roughly -$40B at a $5.5T market cap, giving back part of Monday's buyback gain. It is +0.43% pre-market
MU $1,065.08, +$11.10 (+1.05%) (S&P 500, Nasdaq-100), +0.37% pre-market. It reports fiscal Q4 after the close today. Previews put consensus near $51.2B in revenue and $31.6 in adjusted EPS, above the midpoints of its own guidance, $50B and $31. At about $1.2T in market value, it is the largest single event for NQ this week
CAT $826.64, +$6.69 (+0.82%), about +40 Dow points, the largest positive contribution to YM among the names checked. UNH -$2.89 (-0.76%), about -17. GS was flat at $916.24 after reports that its board discussed John Waldron as the next CEO

What Would Change The Read

Scoring Tuesday's calls. We asked whether EUR/USD would hold 1.1325. It did not, and set a new 52-week low of 1.1312 before recovering to 1.1362. We asked whether JOLTS would move the 2-year. JOLTS missed and the 2-year fell 5.2bp, though most of that move came with Williams at 14:00. We asked whether gold would hold $4,182.80 if yields kept rising. Yields eased instead, and gold is at $4,220. We asked whether the Qatari channel would produce a meeting. It met Araghchi on Monday, but no US reply has followed
Whether core PCE confirms Williams. A 0.3% print leaves October near a coin flip. A 0.4% would reopen it and test the 2-year's 52-week high of 4.966%
Whether the 10-year holds under 5.297%. That is Tuesday's high and the new 52-week high. The long end did not follow the front end lower on Tuesday, and 2s10s is steepening
Whether gold keeps rising if the dollar falls through 101.17. That is DXY's overnight low. A weaker dollar and softer front end are the two things that have supported gold this month
Whether Micron beats the preview numbers, not just its guidance. Revenue consensus is above the top of the company's range and EPS consensus is above its midpoint. A result near the midpoint of guidance would be a miss against expectations

The Bottom Line

Williams said "no urgency", and the market removed about 25 percentage points of October hike probability in an afternoon. The 2-year fell, the dollar eased and gold rose, but the 10-year held near its highs and the 30-year made a 24-year high. The front end is pricing a more patient Fed; the long end is still pricing inflation and supply. Today's core PCE is the first data point since Williams spoke, so it tests his patience directly. Micron closes the day, and payrolls close the week.

_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._