Chicago PMI Jumps 11.7 Points to 58.8 vs 51.2 Est — Highest Since May

Fundamentals · 2026-09-30

Chicago Business Barometer 58.8 in September (vs 51.2 est), +11.7 points from 47.1 and back above 50 after one month below, the highest since May; production +15.5 points, back in expansion; new orders +13.3, partly seasonal; supplier deliveries +9.6, above 50 for a 20th month, with no firm reporting faster deliveries; order backlogs +8.4 but below 50 for a third month; employment -4.3, back in contraction; prices paid -3.7 to around July's level, with no firm reporting lower prices for a seventh month; inventories -0.6; 27% of firms name semiconductors and electronic components as hardest to source; survey 1-15 September.

What It Changes

• Chicago bounced back hard. The Barometer rose 11.7 points to 58.8, beating the 51.2 consensus by 7.6 points and undoing August's drop below 50.
• The rebound is in output, not hiring. Production and new orders drove it, while employment fell back below 50 and some firms cited outsourcing. That fits the national picture: activity holding up, headcount flat.
• Supply is tight again. Supplier deliveries lengthened for a 20th month, no firm reported faster deliveries, and semiconductors were the most-cited shortage. Slower deliveries add to the headline, so part of this gain reflects constraint rather than demand.
• Prices stay one-directional. Prices paid eased, but no respondent has reported lower prices for seven months. Nothing here argues for the Fed to relax.

Impact

• USD — Slight bullish — a strong regional activity read supports the growth side of the hawkish case, but Chicago is a regional survey and the market barely moved on it.
• DXY went from 101.212 at 09:44 to 101.234 in the release minute and was back at 101.19 by 09:48 (TradingView 1-minute bars).
• The 2-year traded between 4.839% and 4.852% in the 09:45 five-minute bar, a range of about 1bp.
• US Indices (ES / NQ / YM / RTY) — Mixed — better activity and new orders support cyclicals, but it arrived after the 08:30 data had set the day's tone.
• ES (December) traded 7,749.75-7,757.75 in the release minute from 7,754.25, with no follow-through.
• YM and RTY carry the manufacturing and regional read more than NQ, though the semiconductor shortage detail points at NQ's supply chain.
• Gold (GC) — Slight bearish — firmer activity and sticky input prices work against the easing case gold would need, but the 09:45 bar simply continued the fade that began after 08:30.

Inside The Number

The Chicago Business Barometer, produced by ISM-Chicago with MNI, rose 11.7 points to 58.8 in September, against a 51.2 consensus (Trading Economics). It is back above 50 after one month below, and at its highest since May. Four of the five components that make up the headline rose: production, new orders, supplier deliveries and order backlogs. Employment was the only one that fell.

Production and new orders did most of it. Production rose 15.5 points to its highest level since May and returned to expansion after one month of contraction. New orders rose 13.3 points, which MNI called "a partial unwind of the prior decline"; some respondents attributed it to a seasonal improvement in orders. New orders carry the largest weight in the headline (0.35), followed by production (0.25), so on the weights Trading Economics publishes, together they account for roughly 8.5 points of the rise.

The supply side tightened. Supplier deliveries rose 9.6 points, above 50 for a 20th consecutive month. A higher reading means slower deliveries, and no respondent reported faster delivery times than last month. Firms cited constraints in the availability and delivery of electronic components and other commodities. Because slower deliveries raise the headline, about 1.4 points of the rise came from supply constraint rather than demand.

Backlogs and hiring are the weak spots. Order backlogs rose 8.4 points but stayed below 50 for a third month, so firms are still working through orders faster than new ones pile up. Employment fell 4.3 points and returned to contraction after one month above 50. MNI said the share reporting higher employment fell, reports of workforce reductions edged up, and some firms cited outsourcing.

Prices eased, but only from a high level. Prices paid fell 3.7 points, back around July's level. MNI noted that no respondent has reported lower prices paid for a seventh consecutive month, though the share reporting increases moderated. Inventories eased 0.6 points. The survey ran from 1 to 15 September.

The Internals

MNI publishes the point changes; sub-index levels are subscriber-only.

Component · Change · Status · Headline weight · Read

Chicago Business Barometer · +11.7 to 58.8 · Expansion · n/a · Highest since May

Production · +15.5 · Expansion · 0.25 · Highest since May

New orders · +13.3 · Not published · 0.35 · Partial unwind of August's drop

Supplier deliveries · +9.6 · Above 50, 20th month · 0.15 · Slower deliveries

Order backlogs · +8.4 · Contraction, 3rd month · 0.15 · Still shrinking

Employment · -4.3 · Contraction · 0.10 · Back below 50

Prices paid · -3.7 · Not published · not in headline · Around July's level

Inventories · -0.6 · Not published · not in headline · Eased

Approximate contribution to the 11.7-point rise, using the component weights Trading Economics publishes, before seasonal adjustment:

Component · Weighted change · Share of the weighted total

New orders · +4.7 · 43%

Production · +3.9 · 36%

Supplier deliveries · +1.4 · 13%

Order backlogs · +1.3 · 12%

Employment · -0.4 · -4%

Weighted total · +10.8 · 100%

The weighted components sum to about 10.8 points; the headline is seasonally adjusted as a whole, which accounts for the rest of the 11.7-point move. Treat these shares as a guide to what drove the rise, not as published figures.

What The Firms Actually Said

This month's special questions went to purchasing and supply-chain managers.

The survey asked: "What are your organization's hiring intentions for procurement and supply chain professionals over the next 6-12 months?"

Response · Share

Maintain current staffing levels · 62%

Increase hiring moderately · 12%

Increase hiring significantly · 4%

Reduce headcount · 8%

Reduce hiring or allow positions to attrit · 4%

Uncertain at this time · 8%

Other · 4%

In all, 16% plan to hire and 12% plan to cut, so the net is slightly positive, but nearly two-thirds are holding steady. That matches the employment sub-index: firms are not expanding headcount.

And: "Which raw materials or inputs are you currently finding most difficult to source?" Firms could name more than one.

Input · Share

No significant impact or unknown · 42%

Semiconductors and electronic components · 27%

Metals and specialty alloys · 23%

Chemicals and industrial materials · 19%

Energy, fuels and natural gas · 8%

Plastics, resins and polymers · 8%

Other · 8%

Semiconductors were the most-cited shortage, ahead of metals. That lines up with the supplier-deliveries comment on electronic components and with capital goods imports running 57% above a year ago in this morning's trade data: demand for AI hardware is competing with everyone else's need for chips.

And: "How are evolving recycling, packaging and EPR regulations in overseas markets affecting your supply chain?"

Effect · Share

No impact or unknown · 62%

Supplier documentation or certification requirements · 31%

Higher compliance or EPR costs · 15%

Recycled-content sourcing requirements · 15%

Changes to recycling, waste flows or export requirements · 8%

Packaging or material redesign requirements · 8%

Most firms report no effect. Among those that do, the burden is paperwork more than cost.

Against This Morning's Open

• The Open carried Chicago PMI at 46.9-51.2 against a 47.1 prior. It printed 58.8, 7.6 points above the top of that range.
• The Open tagged it USD and ES. Neither moved meaningfully in the release minute; the 08:30 data had already set the day's direction.

What This Sets Up

• Next Chicago Business Barometer — Friday, 30 October 2026, 09:45 ET, with October data.
• The test is whether new orders hold. Some respondents attributed September's new orders to a seasonal improvement; if new orders fall back in October, the jump was a rebound from August's drop rather than a new trend.
• Employment is the other test. A second month below 50 would confirm that firms are raising output without adding staff.
• ISM manufacturing tomorrow is the national check on this read. Chicago's supplier-deliveries and prices comments are the two to compare.

What Is This?

• What it is: The Chicago Business Barometer, often called the Chicago PMI, produced by ISM-Chicago with MNI Indicators and published at 09:45 ET on the last business day of the month. It surveys purchasing and supply-chain professionals at manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms in the Chicago area, and has run monthly since 1946. The headline is a weighted composite of five sub-indices: new orders, production, order backlogs, supplier deliveries and employment.
• Why it matters: It lands the business day before ISM manufacturing, and it covers services firms as well as manufacturers. With the Fed having hiked to 3.75%-4.00% on 16 September, a strong activity read supports the view that the economy can absorb tighter policy.
• How to read it: Each sub-index is a diffusion index: the share reporting an increase plus half the share reporting no change. Above 50 means more firms report increases than decreases; the distance from 50 shows how broad the change is, not its size. Supplier deliveries are inverted in their effect: a higher reading means slower deliveries, which raises the headline even though it signals constraint. The Chicago survey is regional, so it moves much more month to month than the national ISM index.

Want the full explainer? Economic News Events, Explained breaks down this release and every other one we cover, in plain English.

_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._