Crude +3.0M vs -0.7M Est — Exports Reversed Last Week's Surge and Cushing Rebuilt 2.3M

Fundamentals · 2026-09-23

Commercial crude stocks rose 2.97 million barrels to 426.4 million in the week to 18 September, against a 0.7 million draw expected — a 3.7 million barrel bearish miss. The API had flagged a 1.79 million build, so for once the two surveys agree on direction. The flows behind it are last week's in reverse: crude exports fell 1,550 kb/d to 3,281, undoing the prior week's surge, and refinery runs fell 519 kb/d to 16,811, with utilization down 2.8 points to 94.0%. Cushing rebuilt 2.27 million barrels to 23.75 million, back level with a year ago after two weeks of draws. Products drew: gasoline -1.69 million, distillate -0.43 million, with distillate demand up 473 kb/d to 3,975. SPR -0.4 million to 284.6 million, -29.9% y/y. Next release 30 September.

What It Changes

• The export pull that drove last week's draw has gone, and it went all at once. Exports jumped 1,414 kb/d the week before; this week they fell 1,550 kb/d, below where they started. That is consistent with the Saudi East-West pipeline coming partly back — Aramco moved to restore about half its capacity last week — and the marginal buyer no longer reaching for US Gulf barrels.
• Refiners took less crude, and that is the other half of the build. Runs fell 519 kb/d and utilization dropped from 96.8% to 94.0%. Lower runs and lower exports together leave barrels in the tank, which is exactly what happened.
• Cushing is no longer the worry it was a week ago. The hub rebuilt 2.27 million barrels to 23.75 million, level with last year. The case this desk made last week — a delivery point sliding toward tank bottoms near 20 million — reversed in one week.
• It is bearish for crude into a market that has already fallen six sessions. November WTI was $89.85 this morning, per The Open. A 3.7 million barrel miss adds a physical reason to a move that had been running on supply headlines.
• The product side is tighter than the crude side. Gasoline and distillate both drew, distillate stocks remain 12.7% below a year ago, and distillate demand jumped on the same morning the flash PMI showed US activity at a five-year high.

Impact

• Crude (CL) — Bearish — a build against an expected draw, exports reversing, runs falling and Cushing refilling. Every crude-side line in the report points the same way.
• The price has done much of this already. Per The Open, WTI has fallen from a $101.91 settle last Thursday to below $90 across six down sessions, on the pipeline restoration. This report confirms the physical market loosened; it does not introduce a new reason.
• Cushing matters again, in the opposite direction. At 23.75 million and flat on the year, the delivery-point squeeze risk flagged last week has receded. That removes one of the few structural supports under the front of the WTI curve.
• Watch the refinery side before calling this a lasting glut. Utilization falling 2.8 points in mid-September is consistent with the start of autumn maintenance, which typically lowers runs and builds crude for several weeks before reversing.
• USD — Neutral — inventories do not price the dollar; DXY's eight-week high at 100.85 this morning is a rates story.
• US Indices (ES / NQ / YM / RTY) — Neutral to slight bullish — cheaper crude eases the input-cost pressure the flash PMI flagged this morning, but through a slow channel.
• Gold (GC) — Neutral — no mechanism worth writing down.

Inside The Number

Commercial crude inventories excluding the SPR rose 2.969 million barrels to 426.4 million in the week ended 18 September, against a consensus of a 0.7 million barrel draw. Stocks are 2.8% above the same week last year. Including the SPR, total crude rose 2.564 million to 711.0 million, still 13.4% below a year ago.

Start with a correction to last week's brief, because it told readers to watch something that was never going to arrive. Last week's report showed EIA at a 640,000 barrel draw against the API's 7.14 million build, and this desk wrote that next week's revision to the prior week would start to resolve the conflict. It did not, because there was no revision: this report carries last week's commercial level forward unchanged at 423.429 million. EIA's weekly series is generally left as first published, with corrections coming through the monthly Petroleum Supply Monthly months later. The watch-item was wrong in kind, not just in outcome.

So has the API-EIA gap closed? No — the two agree this week and still disagree on the fortnight. This week EIA shows +2.97 million and the API showed +1.79 million, the same direction and within 1.2 million. But across the two weeks, EIA's commercial stocks rose 2.33 million in total while the API's rose 8.93 million. A 6.6 million barrel difference over a fortnight has not been explained by anything in either release. It has simply stopped growing.

The adjustment played a much smaller role this time. EIA's balancing item — unaccounted-for crude — printed +215 kb/d, down from +577. Run the balance without it and the week shows a +1.06 million barrel build rather than +2.97; the adjustment contributed about 1.5 million barrels. Last week it swung 10.3 million barrels and dominated the print. This week the headline is mostly observed flows.

Now the flows, which are last week's in reverse. Crude exports fell 1,550 kb/d to 3,281 kb/d — roughly 10.9 million fewer barrels leaving over the week, and below the 4,484 kb/d shipped in the same week last year. The previous week exports had jumped 1,414 kb/d as buyers who lost Saudi supply turned to the US Gulf. Between the two reports, Saudi Aramco moved to restore about half of the damaged East-West pipeline's capacity. The export surge and its reversal bracket that restoration closely enough to be the likely mechanism, though the weekly data cannot prove the cause.

Imports fell too, by 1,181 kb/d to 5,877, which partly offset the export drop. Net crude imports rose 369 kb/d to 2,596.

Refineries were the other half. Crude input fell 519 kb/d to 16,811 kb/d, a second consecutive weekly decline, and utilization dropped 2.8 points to 94.0%. That is still above the 93.0% of this week last year, but it is a sharp move for one week. Mid-to-late September is when the autumn maintenance season typically begins, and falling runs with building crude is the usual shape of it. If that is what this is, the build has a known end date — refiners come back in October and November and draw crude down again.

Cushing reversed completely. Stocks at the Oklahoma hub rose 2.266 million barrels to 23.748 million, now exactly level with a year ago. The API had reported a 2.08 million Cushing build, very close. Last week this desk highlighted Cushing at 21.482 million as the number with the most leverage, sliding toward operational tank bottoms near 20 million. That concern has not so much eased as disappeared: the hub is back to a normal level in one week.

Regionally, the build was a Midwest story. PADD 2, which includes Cushing, rose 4.407 million barrels — more than the entire national build. The Gulf Coast drew another 2.093 million despite exports falling, and the East and West Coasts each built modestly. The national picture of a 3 million barrel build hides a 4.4 million build in the middle of the country and a 2.1 million draw on the export coast.

Products went the other way, and that is the tighter side of the market. Gasoline fell 1.686 million barrels to 206.0 million, 4.9% below a year ago. Distillate fell 428,000 barrels to 107.4 million, 12.7% below a year ago. Distillate demand — products supplied — jumped 473 kb/d to 3,975 kb/d, well above the 3,738 of this week last year. Diesel is the freight and industrial fuel, and a jump in its use lines up with this morning's flash PMI, where firms reported the fastest activity growth since July 2021 and sharply higher transport costs.

The SPR fell another 405,000 barrels to 284.552 million — 121.4 million barrels, or 29.9%, below a year ago. The drawdown ran at 58 kb/d in each of the last two weeks, through the supply disruption and now its partial resolution.

The Internals

Stocks, in millions of barrels, week ended 18 September:

Series · This week · Last week · Change · Year ago · vs year ago

Commercial crude excluding SPR · 426.398 · 423.429 · +2.969 · 414.754 · +2.8%

Strategic Petroleum Reserve · 284.552 · 284.957 · -0.405 · 405.958 · -29.9%

Total crude including SPR · 710.950 · 708.386 · +2.564 · 820.712 · -13.4%

Cushing, Oklahoma · 23.748 · 21.482 · +2.266 · 23.738 · 0.0%

Total motor gasoline · 206.046 · 207.732 · -1.686 · 216.569 · -4.9%

Distillate fuel oil · 107.431 · 107.859 · -0.428 · 122.999 · -12.7%

Kerosene-type jet fuel · 45.466 · 45.338 · +0.129 · 44.951 · +1.1%

Propane and propylene · 107.870 · 109.092 · -1.222 · 99.918 · +8.0%

Residual fuel oil · 23.723 · 23.018 · +0.705 · 21.115 · +12.4%

Total stocks excluding SPR · 1,251.356 · 1,251.248 · +0.108 · 1,281.947 · -2.4%

Commercial crude by region, millions of barrels:

Region · This week · Change · vs year ago

Midwest, PADD 2 · 104.070 · +4.407 · +0.8%

Cushing, within PADD 2 · 23.748 · +2.266 · 0.0%

Gulf Coast, PADD 3 · 244.080 · -2.093 · +4.2%

West Coast, PADD 5 · 46.558 · +0.569 · +0.2%

East Coast, PADD 1 · 8.372 · +0.176 · +4.6%

Alaska in transit · 3.885 · +0.148 · -0.3%

Rocky Mountain, PADD 4 · 23.319 · -0.091 · +2.6%

Flows, thousands of barrels per day — two weeks side by side:

Measure · Week to 18 Sep · Week to 11 Sep · Week to 4 Sep · Read

Crude exports · 3,281 · 4,831 · 3,417 · The surge came and went

Crude imports · 5,877 · 7,058 · 6,824 · Down sharply this week

Net crude imports · 2,596 · 2,227 · 3,407 · Partly recovered

Crude input to refineries · 16,811 · 17,330 · 17,586 · Two straight declines

Refinery utilization · 94.0% · 96.8% · 97.8% · Down 3.8 points in two weeks

Domestic production · 13,939 · 13,944 · 13,947 · Flat for three weeks

EIA adjustment · +215 · +577 · -888 · Much smaller role this week

Total products supplied · 21,050 · 21,255 · 19,313 · Steady at a high level

Distillate supplied · 3,975 · 3,501 · 3,678 · Jumped 473 kb/d

The balance this week:

Component · kb/d · Over the week, million barrels

Domestic production · +13,939 · +97.6

Net imports · +2,596 · +18.2

Transfers to crude supply · +428 · +3.0

EIA adjustment · +215 · +1.5

Crude input to refineries · -16,811 · -117.7

Published stock change, all crude · +366 · +2.56

Same balance with adjustment set to zero · +152 · +1.06

The two surveys, two weeks running:

Week · EIA commercial crude · API commercial crude · Gap

To 4 September · -0.391 million · -0.30 million · 0.09 million

To 11 September · -0.640 million · +7.14 million · 7.78 million

To 18 September · +2.969 million · +1.79 million · 1.18 million

Two weeks to 18 September · +2.329 million · +8.93 million · 6.60 million

Where The Barrels Actually Went

They stayed in the country, mostly in the middle of it. Exports fell 1,550 kb/d — about 10.9 million fewer barrels shipped over the week — and refiners took 519 kb/d less, another 3.6 million barrels. Imports falling 1,181 kb/d offset much of the export drop. The net result was a 3 million barrel build, and it landed overwhelmingly in the Midwest.

PADD 2 rose 4.4 million barrels, more than the national total. Cushing accounted for 2.27 million of that. The Gulf Coast, meanwhile, drew another 2.1 million even as exports fell — so the export coast is still drawing while the inland hub refills. That pattern fits a system rebalancing after a week of heavy Gulf exports: barrels that would have been shipped south to the Gulf for export are backing up at the inland storage hub instead.

The export reversal is the cleanest single signal in the report. 3,281 kb/d is below the 4,484 kb/d shipped in the same week last year, and below the level before last week's surge. Whatever pulled US crude abroad for one week has stopped pulling. The timing lines up with Saudi Aramco restoring roughly half the East-West pipeline's capacity, which would put Saudi barrels back in reach of the buyers who briefly turned to the US Gulf.

Refinery runs are the part to be patient with. Utilization has fallen from 97.8% to 94.0% in two weeks. Autumn maintenance season usually begins in the second half of September, and a fall in runs of this size is typical of it. That makes some of this build seasonal and temporary rather than a sign of weak demand — and the demand numbers agree, with total products supplied steady above 21 million barrels a day and distillate demand jumping.

The products tell the opposite story to crude. Gasoline drew 1.7 million barrels and distillate drew 0.4 million. Distillate at 107.4 million is 12.7% below last year, and distillate demand rose 473 kb/d to its highest weekly level in this three-week stretch. Lower runs mean less product being made, and product demand did not fall with it. If maintenance extends, product stocks keep drawing while crude builds — the refinery margin widens and the crude price softens, both at once.

And the SPR keeps draining at the same pace. Down 405,000 barrels, almost exactly matching last week's 403,000. The reserve is 29.9% below a year ago and is being drawn at a steady rate regardless of whether the crisis it would be held for is escalating or easing.

Against This Morning's Open

• The Open had the setup and the API numbers right, and the API was the better guide — The Open reported the API at a 1.79 million crude build and a 2.08 million Cushing build against a consensus 0.7 million draw.
• The API called direction and nearly nailed Cushing. EIA came in at +2.97 million on crude and +2.27 million at Cushing. Consensus was on the wrong side of zero. The API's roughly 2.16 million barrel draws in gasoline and distillates overstated the distillate draw, which EIA put at 0.43 million.
• Its read that the inventory picture was "not yet backing the move" now has an answer. Crude had fallen six sessions on the pipeline restoration without physical confirmation. This report is the physical confirmation: exports reversed, the hub refilled, and crude built.
• The calendar carried this release at 10:30 with a consensus and the API context — the Wednesday fixed-cadence item the enumeration step was added to protect.

What This Sets Up

• Next EIA report — Wednesday 30 September at 10:30 ET, covering the week to 25 September.
• Whether utilization keeps falling. A third weekly decline in runs would confirm autumn maintenance and make further crude builds likely through October — seasonal, not a demand signal.
• Whether exports stay near 3.3 million barrels a day. If they do, last week's surge was a one-week response to the Saudi outage and has fully unwound. A return above 4.5 million would mean the pipeline restoration is not holding.
• Whether product stocks keep drawing while crude builds. Distillate is 12.7% below last year with demand rising. Crude building and diesel drawing at the same time is the combination that widens refining margins.
• Do not wait for a weekly revision to settle the API gap. The weekly series is generally not restated; the 6.6 million barrel fortnightly difference between the two surveys will only be tested when the monthly data arrive.

What Is This?

• What it is: The Weekly Petroleum Status Report, published by the Energy Information Administration every Wednesday at 10:30 ET for the week ending the previous Friday. It reports US stocks of crude oil and refined products, refinery activity, production, imports and exports, and an implied-demand measure called products supplied. The headline traders watch is commercial crude excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. It breaks stocks out by the five PADD refining districts and reports Cushing, Oklahoma separately, because Cushing is the physical delivery point for the NYMEX WTI futures contract.
• Why it matters: It is the most detailed and timely inventory picture for the world's largest oil consumer, and the only weekly read on whether a supply or demand shock is reaching tank levels. This month it has shown both directions of the same shock: an export-led draw as the Saudi outage pulled US barrels abroad, then an export-led build as the pipeline came partly back. It also feeds the gasoline and diesel prices that flow into the inflation data the Fed is currently focused on.
• How to read it: Four cautions. Check the adjustment before trusting the headline — the balancing item for unaccounted-for crude can be larger than the stock change itself, as it was two weeks ago, or small, as it was this week. The weekly series is generally not revised, so a gap with the API does not get resolved the following Wednesday; corrections come through the monthly data. Separate seasonal refinery moves from demand — runs fall every autumn for maintenance, which builds crude and draws products without any change in consumption. And products supplied is a calculated residual, so read the four-week average and the year-on-year column rather than a single week.

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_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._