Crude slid again. The dollar hit an eight-week high

Rundown · 2026-09-23

Two things that normally move together have split, and the dollar is the one that won. November WTI settled $90.52 on Tuesday and is $89.85 this morning, a sixth consecutive down session and -11.2% from Thursday's $101.91 settle. Cheaper oil usually takes some air out of the dollar. Instead DXY printed 100.862 in early European trade, its highest since late July, and sits at 100.85, because money markets still price roughly a 53-55% chance of a second Fed hike on 28 October. The sharpest illustration came at 04:00 ET: the eurozone's flash PMIs beat by more than a point across the board, and EUR/USD still traded to 1.1407, an eight-week low. Index futures are flat against Tuesday's settles and inside tight overnight ranges. There is no US release at 08:30 today; the first US print is the S&P Global flash PMIs at 09:45.

Overnight

Against Tuesday's settles, as of 06:48 ET (delayed quotes, not settles). ES (Dec) 7,835.25, +3.50 (+0.04%) from 7,831.75 · NQ 31,021.25, -7.25 (-0.02%) from 31,028.50 · YM 52,266, -13 (-0.02%) from 52,279 · RTY 2,903.90, -10.20 (-0.35%) from 2,914.10
The reference levels, and nothing more. Globex ranges so far: ES 7,827.25-7,843.25 · NQ 30,982.75-31,094.75 · YM 52,241-52,371 · RTY 2,903.20-2,915.30. Two structural notes. NQ's overnight high of 31,094.75 is also the top of its 52-week range on MarketWatch's continuous contract. RTY is the only one of the four trading at its overnight low. ES's 52-week high on the same page is 7,848.50, printed Tuesday, about 13 points above the current quote
Tokyo is shut for a third straight day for the Autumnal Equinox and reopens Thursday; the last Nikkei cash close is still Friday's 65,018.95. Hang Seng closed 24,834.12, -253.63 (-1.01%); Shanghai -0.39%; KOSPI +0.90% on the chip trade. Australia's flash PMIs were the weakest print of the Asian session: manufacturing 49.3 from 52.0, back below 50, and services 51.4 from 53.2
Europe, mid-morning: DAX 25,456.01, -122.84 (-0.48%) · FTSE 100 10,713.77, +5.44 (+0.05%). The data was strong and the equities did not care. Germany's flash composite came in at 53.8 against 51.8 expected, services 52.9 against 50.0; the eurozone composite printed 53.1 against 51.7. The UK went the other way: flash services 51.7 against 52.0, from 52.5
What moved it. Saudi Arabia is preparing to restart exports through its East-West pipeline in the coming days, a route that bypasses Hormuz. President Trump said US officials held a "very productive" meeting with Iranian envoys and that further talks are planned. And the API reported a 1.79m barrel crude build after Tuesday's close

The Dollar & FX

DXY 100.85, +0.25 (+0.25%) from 100.60, range 100.54-100.86, trading at its high. The driver is rates, and it is overriding oil: the Fed hiked 25bp on 16 September and signalled at least one more, and Tuesday brought three more officials leaning the same way — Boston's Collins saw an "increased likelihood" of inflation staying well above 2%, Richmond's Barkin said further hikes were possible. October odds sit at 53% on LSEG data, 55% on CME-derived pricing and 54% on Polymarket this morning
The euro is the cleanest read of that. EUR/USD 1.1415, -0.0036 (-0.31%) from 1.1451, range 1.1407-1.1457, printing its low after a PMI beat that on another day would have lifted it. When a pair falls through good domestic data, the rate differential is doing the work
6A is the weakest major, and it has its own reason. AUD/USD 0.7076, -0.0040 (-0.56%) from 0.7116, range 0.7074-0.7121, at its low. Australia's manufacturing PMI dropping below 50, a 1% fall in Hong Kong and a strong dollar all point the same way
6B is second-weakest. GBP/USD 1.3290, -0.0054 (-0.40%) from 1.3344, range 1.3276-1.3358, with an eight-week low of 1.3287 reported in early European trade. A services miss, and gilt yields falling with oil, narrow sterling's rate support
6J is the one to watch into Thursday. USD/JPY 157.84, +0.45 (+0.28%) from 157.40, range 157.33-157.92. It is now 14 pips below Friday's 158.057 high, which it has failed to retake for three sessions of Tokyo-closed trade. Pricing for a BOJ hike on 30 October is about 18%
6C is the quietest. USD/CAD 1.4087, +0.0019 (+0.14%) from 1.4068, range 1.4058-1.4095. The loonie has weakened with crude all week, but the move this morning is smaller than the dollar's move against Europe
The only Fed speaker the Board's own calendar lists today is Governor Barr at 10:05 ET, on the economic outlook and housing

Energy & Metals

CL: November settled $90.52, -$1.85 (-2.0%) on Tuesday, and is $89.85, -$0.67 (-0.74%) this morning, range $88.71-$90.52. The session high is the settle itself. October WTI expired Tuesday at $94.59. From Thursday's $101.91, November has now given up $11.39 in four settled sessions plus this morning
The curve is doing what the desk asked about. The November-December spread settled at $2.54 on Tuesday, down from $3.21 on Monday and $4.03 on Friday, and is $2.32 this morning (December $87.53). That is the backwardation compressing alongside flat price, which is a different message from Monday, when the spread held while price fell
The inventory picture is not yet backing the move. API showed a 1.79m barrel crude build, a 2.08m barrel build at Cushing, and draws of about 2.16m barrels each in gasoline and distillates. EIA's official numbers land at 10:30, with consensus a 0.7m barrel draw
Brent is holding up better than WTI. November Brent settled $99.25, -$1.09, and is $99.22 now, range $97.91-$100.00. The Brent-WTI gap on the November contracts is about $9.40, wide by historical standards. A Saudi pipeline that bypasses Hormuz frees up Middle East supply for Asia and Europe; it does less for landlocked US crude at Cushing, where stocks are building
GC: December settled $4,376.40, -$7.50 (-0.17%), and is $4,350.00, -$26.40 (-0.60%) now, range $4,345.30-$4,407.50, sitting near its low. It opened at $4,394.70 and was bid to $4,407.50, then sold off, the same pattern as the last several sessions: an overnight bid that did not survive into the US morning. The mechanism is the dollar and the rate path, not oil — a haven metal that pays no yield has to compete with a Fed pricing a coin-flip hike next month
Rates, briefly. The 10-year is 4.967%, flat on the day. The 2-year, now the new on-the-run issue after Tuesday's auction, is 4.783%, +0.8bp. That leaves 2s10s at about 18bp, flatter than Monday's 20bp: the front end is holding the hike pricing while the long end takes the lower oil price

Where We Left Off

Tuesday's RTH close: Dow 51,863.69 (-185.14, -0.36%) · S&P 500 7,764.64 (-0.06, -0.00%) · Nasdaq Composite 27,244.28 (+122.18, +0.45%) · Russell 2000 2,889.92 (+14.56, +0.51%). The Nasdaq-100 closed 30,732.40 (+250.04, +0.82%) and VIX closed 14.14. All four closes reconcile against Monday's published figures, and AP and MarketWatch agree on all four. (Investrade carried the S&P at +0.13; AP and MarketWatch both have -0.06.) Per AP, the S&P 500 is 0.4% below the all-time high it set last month
Financials were the drag; chips were the lift. Financials, communications and energy lagged. Materials, staples and technology led. The Nasdaq-100 outgained the Composite by nearly 0.4 percentage points, which says the gain came from the largest names
What carries over is still the split. Nasdaq up, Dow down, S&P flat is the sixth straight session of the dispersion this desk has tracked since last Thursday. On Tuesday it had a clear source: financials on the price-weighted Dow, against semiconductors in the cap-weighted Nasdaq-100

On The Calendar Today

Time ET · Event · Consensus · Prior · Hits

Pre-open · Earnings: Cintas, Paychex, General Mills · n/a · n/a · ES · NQ

07:00 · MBA mortgage applications, w/e Sep 18 · n/a · -4.1% (30Y 6.97%) · USD

09:45 · S&P Global flash manufacturing PMI, Sep · 53.6 · 53.9 · USD · ES/NQ

09:45 · S&P Global flash services PMI, Sep · 56.0 · 56.5 · USD · ES/NQ

09:45 · S&P Global flash composite PMI, Sep · n/a · 56.0 · USD · ES/NQ

10:05 · Fed Governor Barr: outlook and housing · n/a · n/a · USD · GC

10:30 · EIA crude stocks, w/e Sep 18 · -0.7m bbl · -0.64m bbl · CL

11:30 · 17-week bill and 2-year FRN auctions · n/a · 4.03% (17-wk) · USD

13:00 · 5-year note auction · n/a · 4.393% · USD · GC · ES

All day · UN General Assembly, New York · n/a · n/a · CL · GC

The 08:30 slot is empty, and that has been checked. TradingView's US calendar has nothing between the 07:00 MBA print and the 09:45 PMIs. The Census Bureau's own schedule has no releases on 22 or 23 September; new home sales is Thursday at 10:00. Both of Wednesday's fixed weekly releases, MBA at 07:00 and EIA crude at 10:30, are in the table. BLS's schedule was not checked separately.

The fulcrum is 09:45, and it is set up in one particular way. Europe's PMIs beat by more than a point this morning and the dollar still rose. A US flash PMI at or above the 56.0 services consensus adds to the case for an October hike, into a dollar already at an eight-week high. A miss would be the second soft US survey in two days, after Tuesday's Richmond Fed. The 5-year auction at 13:00 is the afternoon's rates test, a day after the 2-year. EIA at 10:30 decides whether crude's slide gets a fundamental reason or remains a story about diplomacy.

Index Movers

Ranked by index contribution. The Dow is price-weighted, so $1 in any constituent is worth roughly 5.9 Dow points (on a divisor of about 0.168, from a secondary source; treat these conversions as approximate). Tuesday's closes are from TradingView's quote feed; JPM and AXP were checked against MarketWatch and match.

JPM $340.00, -$12.04 (-3.42%), about -72 Dow points, on 145% of average volume. Coverage pointed to a 10-year near 5% and a flattening curve squeezing margin expectations rather than to any JPMorgan-specific news. It is the largest bank weight in the S&P 500 as well as a Dow name
GS $949.49, -$9.90 (-1.03%), about -59 Dow points, still being priced as the acquirer after Bloomberg's report on Tuesday that it is in talks to buy the credit manager Palmer Square
AXP $305.07, -$8.52 (-2.72%) and V $362.04, -$7.91 (-2.14%): about -51 and -47 Dow points. AmEx closed on its session low. Together, JPM, GS, AXP and V account for about 229 Dow points, more than the index's entire 185-point decline. Strip out the four and the Dow finished higher
HD $305.35, +$8.15 (+2.74%), about +48 Dow points and the largest offset, alongside Lennar's +6.4% after Berkshire Hathaway disclosed buying more shares. Housing names bid while banks sold off in the same session
MU $1,096.16, +$52.20 (+5.00%), AMD +1.34% and NVDA +0.66%: the semiconductor lift behind the Nasdaq-100's +0.82%. Micron reports fiscal Q4 on 30 September, a date confirmed on its IR site, so this is positioning ahead of results rather than a reaction to them
Before the open: Cintas and Paychex (both S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100) and General Mills (S&P 500) report, per TradingView's earnings calendar. None is a Dow name, and none has an index weight that moves ES on its own

What Would Change The Read

Scoring Tuesday's questions. The dispersion ran a sixth session. The API print gave crude a modest fundamental leg: +1.79m barrels and a Cushing build, against a consensus draw. The curve question resolved: the November-December spread fell from $3.21 to $2.54 at the settle. USD/JPY still has not taken 158, with an overnight high of 157.92. The desk did not source the 2-year auction's result, so that call stays open
Whether rates keep beating oil in FX. A dollar at an eight-week high while crude falls 11% in a week is unusual; this morning ING and MUFG both describe the Fed as the dominant driver. The test is the 09:45 PMI and the 13:00 auction. If US data softens and the dollar still holds, the hike pricing is doing all the work. If the dollar gives back 100.54, the start of today's range, the oil story is catching up
Whether EIA confirms API. A second build, and above all another Cushing build, would make the WTI side of the move about inventory as well as Saudi pipelines and Iran talks. A draw would leave the slide resting on diplomacy alone, which is a headline that can reverse in one statement
Whether the financials selloff was a one-day event. Four names produced more than all of the Dow's decline on Tuesday. If banks stabilise, YM's weakness against NQ loses its main source. If they don't, the flattening curve that coverage blamed is still in place at 18bp
Whether USD/JPY takes 158.057 before Tokyo reopens. It is 14 pips away with no domestic market underneath it. The real test comes on Thursday, when Tokyo reopens on the same day as the scheduled Xi-Trump meeting

The Bottom Line

Oil has lost more than a tenth of its price in a week and the dollar is at an eight-week high anyway, so the rate path is the dominant force on the tape. Europe beat and the euro fell, crude slid and gold sold off with it, and a Fed pricing a coin-flip October hike was behind all of it. Index futures have barely moved overnight and sit inside narrow ranges, and ES is a few points from its 52-week high. The session turns on 09:45, where a firm US PMI adds to the hike case, and on 10:30, which decides whether crude's slide has an inventory basis. Tuesday's split was mostly four financial names on a price-weighted index. Whether that repeats is the thing to check before reading anything larger into it.

_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._