Import Prices +0.3% MoM June (vs ~0.2% est, +1.7% May) — YoY +7.1% LARGEST since August 2022; China imports +0.9% MoM biggest since 2008

Fundamentals · 2026-07-17

Import Prices m/m +0.3% June (vs ~0.2% est, +1.7% May) — YoY +7.1% (LARGEST since Aug 2022 +7.7%); Fuel imports -0.4% (first drop since Jan, after +12.6% May); Petroleum -0.7% MoM, +45.4% YoY; Natural gas +9.2% MoM, +92.9% YoY; Nonfuel imports +0.4% (+4.2% YoY, largest since 2022); China imports +0.9% MoM (largest since Jan 2008); Export prices -0.6%

What Is This?

• What it is: BLS monthly indexes of prices paid for imports and received for US exports — measures international pricing pressure feeding into US inflation.
• Why it matters: Import prices YoY +7.1% is the largest since Aug 2022 — validates Warsh's "still plenty of work to do" and "imperfect measures" framing on CPI/PPI disinflation.

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Summary

Import prices rose 0.3% MoM in June (slight beat vs ~0.2% est) — but the story is the 12-month change: +7.1% YoY, the LARGEST over-the-year increase since August 2022. This directly contradicts the CPI/PPI disinflation narrative that dominated markets this week and validates Warsh's hawkish testimony calling those prints "imperfect measures." Fuel imports finally declined -0.4% (first drop since January) after May's +12.6% surge, driven by petroleum -0.7%. But natural gas imports EXPLODED +9.2% MoM and +92.9% YoY — Iran-related energy pressure. Nonfuel imports +0.4% (+4.2% YoY, largest since June 2022) show broad tariff/underlying pass-through. The bombshell: Import prices from China SURGED +0.9% MoM, the largest since January 2008 — clear tariff pass-through signal, YoY China imports +1.3% (largest since 2022). Canada +1.2%, Mexico +0.1%, EU -0.1%, Japan -0.6%. Export prices declined 0.6% MoM (first drop since May 2025) — US exports getting less competitive as USD stays firm. Nonagri industrial supplies exports -2.1%. Bottom line: inflation at the border still HOT despite domestic CPI/PPI cooling. Warsh's caution vindicated.

Impact on USD

• Bullish — Import prices +7.1% YoY validates Warsh's hawkish "imperfect measures" testimony.
• China imports +0.9% MoM (largest since 2008) = tariff pass-through, disinflation partially masked in CPI.
• Fed cut trajectory pushed further out; QT threat from Warsh gets ammunition.

Impact on US Indices (ES / NQ / YM)

• Bearish — tariff-driven import inflation squeezes margins across importers.
• Consumer discretionary (XLY), retail (XRT) exposed to China import pass-through.
• Natural gas +9.2% MoM supports XLE (EQT, RRC) but broader indices caught between disinflation and border inflation.

Impact on Gold

• Slight bullish — import inflation validates inflation hedge thesis despite Warsh hawkish stance.
• Natural gas +92.9% YoY reveals broader energy repricing that feeds shelter/PCE eventually.
• Watch $4,300 pivot; competing narratives (CPI/PPI cool vs Import hot) create policy ambiguity.

TLDR

Import/Export Price Indexes (June 2026, released July 17):

• Import prices MoM: +0.3% (vs ~0.2% est, +1.7% May) — slight beat
• Import prices YoY: +7.1% — LARGEST since Aug 2022 (+7.7%)
• Fuel imports: -0.4% MoM (first drop since Jan), +44.1% YoY
• Petroleum: -0.7% MoM, +45.4% YoY
• Natural gas: +9.2% MoM, +92.9% YoY (extreme)
• Nonfuel imports: +0.4% MoM, +4.2% YoY (largest since 2022)
• Nonfuel industrial supplies: +1.2% MoM
• Capital goods: +0.4%; Consumer goods ex-auto: +0.3% (5th monthly rise)
• Autos: -0.1%
• BY LOCALITY: China +0.9% MoM (largest since Jan 2008!), Canada +1.2%, Mexico +0.1%, EU -0.1%, Japan -0.6%
• China imports YoY: +1.3% (largest since 2022)
• Export prices MoM: -0.6% (first decline since May 2025)
• Nonagri exports: -0.7%; Agri exports: +0.2%

Import prices +7.1% YoY biggest since 2022 = HAWKISH inflation signal at the border. Contradicts CPI/PPI disinflation this week. Validates Warsh's "imperfect measures" testimony. China imports surging = tariff pass-through NOT yet in CPI. Watch Powell late July FOMC, next CPI August 12.

_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._