Calendar › EIA weekly natural gas storage › 2026-11-05
Natural Gas +77 Bcf vs +81 Est — Injection Season Closes 54 Bcf Above Normal
Fundamentals · 2026-11-05
Working gas in storage rose 77 Bcf in the week to 30 October against an 81 Bcf consensus (TradingEconomics), after +80 the week before, unrevised. That is 4 Bcf below the survey but 16 Bcf above the five-year average build of +61, the second straight week above the seasonal norm, and 38 Bcf above the year-ago +39. Total stocks 3,801 Bcf: 109 Bcf (−2.8%) below last year, from 147, and 54 Bcf (+1.4%) above the five-year average, from 38. South Central +40 against a normal 25 led again, with salt +22 against a normal 12, its third straight double-digit injection. The East built 13 against a normal 11, its first week over in three; Pacific −1 against +2 was the only region short. Standard error on the net change 1.1 Bcf. Next release Friday 13 November.
What It Changes
- A tight miss against the survey, a loose print against history. 77 against 81 expected is 4 Bcf short, outside the 1.1 Bcf sampling error. But the five-year norm for this week was only 61, so the build ran 16 Bcf over it, the widest beat in the last nine weeks.
- The surplus widened for a second week. Stocks are 54 Bcf above the five-year average, from 38, and the year-ago deficit shrank by 38 to 109, because last year's same week built only 39.
- October closed at 3,801 Bcf, in line with the roughly 3,800 that last week's brief set out for a pace of 77 to 80 Bcf.
- The tight spots kept closing. South Central salt is now 8.1% below its five-year average, from 11.6%, and the region as a whole is just 1.1% below, from 2.3%.
Impact
- Natural Gas (NG) — Mixed — a build below consensus reads tight, but one 16 Bcf above the seasonal norm, on top of a widening surplus, reads loose. The two comparisons point opposite ways.
- The front month whipsawed and went nowhere. In the release minute it traded +0.4% and −0.6% against its 10:29 close, on about five times the volume of the minute before, and closed the minute −0.1%. By 10:45 ET it was still −0.1% from 10:29. The market did not trade the 4 Bcf miss as a tight surprise.
- The cushion grew. At 3,801 Bcf stocks are 54 Bcf above the five-year average, and EIA places them "within the five-year historical range".
- USD — Neutral — gas storage has no dollar transmission.
- US Indices (ES / NQ / YM / RTY) — Neutral — the exposure runs through utilities and gas-intensive industry, not the index.
Inside The Number
Working gas in underground storage in the Lower 48 rose 77 Bcf in the week ending Friday 30 October, taking total stocks to 3,801 Bcf. Consensus was +81 Bcf (TradingEconomics), and the prior week's +80 Bcf was unrevised: last week's 3,724 is this week's starting point, and the implied flow equals the net change in every region, so there was no reclassification. EIA's standard error on the national net change is 1.1 Bcf, so the 4 Bcf miss is outside sampling error.
The seasonal comparison is where this week turns loose. EIA's five-year average stock moved from 3,686 Bcf to 3,747 Bcf between the two report dates, which puts the five-year average build for this week at +61 Bcf, well below last week's +77. Year-ago stocks moved from 3,871 to 3,910, a +39 Bcf build. This week's 77 is 16 Bcf above the five-year norm and 38 above last year. The survey expected 81, so the forecasters were looking for an even bigger beat over the norm than the one that came.
The run against the five-year build, nine weeks: −12, −29, −23, −16, −11, −23, −10, +3 and now +16 Bcf. Seven weeks short through September and mid-October, then two weeks over to close the season.
Both level comparisons moved the loose way again. Stocks are 54 Bcf above the five-year average (3,747 Bcf), a 1.4% surplus that widened by 16 from 38. They are 109 Bcf below a year ago (3,910 Bcf), a 2.8% deficit that narrowed by 38 from 147, because last year's same week built only 39.
South Central led again, and this time the rest of the country kept up. Differencing EIA's published year-ago and five-year stocks against last week's report gives each region's normal build:
- East built 13 Bcf against a five-year normal of 11; a year ago it drew 1.
- Midwest built 23 against 21, year-ago 21.
- Mountain built 2 against 2, year-ago 3.
- Pacific drew 1 against a normal build of 2, year-ago 3. It was the only region short.
- South Central built 40 against 25, year-ago 16. Inside it, salt injected 22 against a normal 12 and nonsalt 18 against 13.
South Central was 15 Bcf over its norm and the other four regions a combined 1 over. Last week South Central was 12 over and the rest 7 short.
Salt kept refilling at a double-digit pace. At 296 Bcf, salt has now refilled for five straight weeks after three weeks of draws in September (+14, +9, +15, +23, +22), and this is the third straight double-digit injection. It sits 8.1% below its five-year average, from 11.6%, and 12.9% below a year ago, from 18.0%. The salt standard error is 0.7 Bcf. Salt caverns can be filled and emptied several times a season, which makes them the system's quick-response capacity for cold snaps. They are still the only part of the system meaningfully below its five-year average going into winter, but the gap has nearly halved since mid-October.
South Central as a whole is almost back to normal. At 1,208 Bcf the region is 1.1% below its five-year average, from 2.3%, and 6.6% below a year ago, from 8.6%. Nonsalt sits 1.4% above its five-year average.
The East answered last week's question. It had built below normal two weeks running; this week's 13 against 11 puts it back over, at 926 Bcf, 2.5% above its five-year average and 1.8% above a year ago, from 0.2%. The Midwest holds 1,111 Bcf, 2.0% above its five-year average; Mountain 260 Bcf, 4.0% above, unchanged; Pacific 296 Bcf, 4.6% above, from 5.7%, after its draw.
Why the build beat the norm but missed the survey is not in the release. EIA reports storage, not supply or demand, so it cannot say whether the gap to consensus came from power burn, heating load, exports or production.
The Internals
The headline against every benchmark:
Comparison · Value · Gap · Read
This week's build · +77 Bcf · n/a · The print
Consensus · +81 Bcf · −4 Bcf · Smaller build than expected
Prior week · +80 Bcf · −3 Bcf · Smaller build, prior unrevised
Five-year average build, this week · +61 Bcf · +16 Bcf · Second week above normal
Same week a year ago · +39 Bcf · +38 Bcf · Well above last year
Standard error on the net change · 1.1 Bcf · n/a · A precise print
The gap to the five-year build, nine weeks:
Week ending · Build · Five-year average build · Gap
4 September · +40 Bcf · About +52 Bcf · About −12 Bcf
11 September · +44 Bcf · +73 Bcf · −29 Bcf
18 September · +53 Bcf · +76 Bcf · −23 Bcf
25 September · +64 Bcf · +80 Bcf · −16 Bcf
2 October · +85 Bcf · +96 Bcf · −11 Bcf
9 October · +67 Bcf · +90 Bcf · −23 Bcf
16 October · +77 Bcf · +87 Bcf · −10 Bcf
23 October · +80 Bcf · +77 Bcf · +3 Bcf
30 October · +77 Bcf · +61 Bcf · +16 Bcf
Stock levels:
Measure · 30 October · 23 October · Change
Total working gas · 3,801 Bcf · 3,724 Bcf · +77
Year-ago stocks · 3,910 Bcf · 3,871 Bcf · +39
Deficit to last year · −109 Bcf, −2.8% · −147 Bcf, −3.8% · Narrowed 38
Five-year average stocks · 3,747 Bcf · 3,686 Bcf · +61
Surplus to five-year average · +54 Bcf, +1.4% · +38 Bcf, +1.0% · Widened 16
Regional detail, Bcf:
Region · 30 Oct · 23 Oct · Net · Year ago · vs year ago · Five-year average · vs five-year
East · 926 · 913 · +13 · 910 · +1.8% · 903 · +2.5%
Midwest · 1,111 · 1,088 · +23 · 1,102 · +0.8% · 1,089 · +2.0%
Mountain · 260 · 258 · +2 · 288 · −9.7% · 250 · +4.0%
Pacific · 296 · 297 · −1 · 318 · −6.9% · 283 · +4.6%
South Central · 1,208 · 1,168 · +40 · 1,294 · −6.6% · 1,221 · −1.1%
South Central salt · 296 · 274 · +22 · 340 · −12.9% · 322 · −8.1%
South Central nonsalt · 912 · 894 · +18 · 954 · −4.4% · 899 · +1.4%
Total Lower 48 · 3,801 · 3,724 · +77 · 3,910 · −2.8% · 3,747 · +1.4%
This week's build against the normal build, by region, derived from EIA's published year-ago and five-year stocks (regions may not sum to the total because of rounding):
Region · Actual build · Five-year build · Gap · Year-ago build
East · +13 · +11 · +2 · −1
Midwest · +23 · +21 · +2 · +21
Mountain · +2 · +2 · 0 · +3
Pacific · −1 · +2 · −3 · +3
South Central · +40 · +25 · +15 · +16
South Central salt · +22 · +12 · +10 · +6
South Central nonsalt · +18 · +13 · +5 · +9
Total Lower 48 · +77 · +61 · +16 · +39
South Central salt, seven weeks:
Week ending · Stock · Net · vs year ago · vs five-year
18 September · 217 Bcf · −5 · −27.2% · −12.5%
25 September · 213 Bcf · −4 · −27.3% · −15.5%
2 October · 227 Bcf · +14 · −23.1% · −14.0%
9 October · 236 Bcf · +9 · −21.9% · −15.4%
16 October · 251 Bcf · +15 · −21.1% · −14.9%
23 October · 274 Bcf · +23 · −18.0% · −11.6%
30 October · 296 Bcf · +22 · −12.9% · −8.1%
Sampling precision, from EIA:
Region · Standard error on the net change
East · 0.5 Bcf
Midwest · 0.3 Bcf
Mountain · 0.1 Bcf
Pacific · 0.0 Bcf
South Central · 0.9 Bcf
South Central salt · 0.7 Bcf
South Central nonsalt · 0.6 Bcf
Total Lower 48 · 1.1 Bcf
Against This Morning's Open
- The Open listed EIA gas storage at 10:30 with an 81 Bcf consensus after 80 Bcf, tagged for NG, and called it "the only scheduled energy print" — The Open. It printed 77 Bcf, 4 short of that figure, a miss to the tight side that the front month did not follow through on.
What This Sets Up
- Next storage report: Friday, 13 November, 10:30am ET, covering the week to 6 November (EIA). It comes a day later than the usual Thursday slot.
- The read to confirm or break is whether the loose turn holds into November. Two weeks above the five-year norm have widened the surplus to 54 Bcf; a third build over normal would carry that cushion into the first withdrawals, while a build well short of the norm would put the two-week turn back in doubt.
- Watch South Central salt. It is 8.1% below its five-year average. Another double-digit injection would bring it within reach of normal; an early withdrawal would leave the quick-response capacity as the weak spot into winter.
- Watch for the first net withdrawal. The five-year average build has fallen from 77 to 61 in a week, so the seasonal norm itself is heading toward zero.
What Is This?
- What it is: The Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report from the US Energy Information Administration, normally published Thursdays at 10:30am ET. It estimates working gas held in underground storage in the Lower 48 states from Form EIA-912, a sample survey of storage operators, broken into five regions, with South Central split into salt caverns and nonsalt (depleted fields and aquifers).
- Why it matters: Storage is the balance sheet of the US gas market. The weekly change is supply minus demand after production, power burn, heating, industrial use and LNG exports, so a build larger or smaller than expected is the cleanest weekly read on whether the market is loosening or tightening, and it is the release that moves the NG front month most reliably.
- How to read it: Compare the net change with consensus first, then with the five-year average and year-ago builds for the same week, because injections and withdrawals are strongly seasonal. A build above consensus or above normal is loose, and bearish for price; a build below is tight, and bullish. When the two comparisons disagree, as they did this week, the level against the five-year average shows which way the cushion is actually moving, and South Central salt shows how much quick-response capacity is available for cold snaps.
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_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._