Calendar › Initial jobless claims › 2026-11-05

Jobless Claims 189K vs 196K Est — Ties the 2026 Low a Day Before Payrolls

Fundamentals · 2026-11-05

Initial jobless claims fell 6,000 to 189,000 in the week to 31 October, against a 196,000 consensus (TradingEconomics), tying 18 July as the lowest week of 2026 and making it an eighth straight week at or below 200,000. The prior week was revised up 1,000 to 195,000, the second upward revision in a row. The 4-week average fell 2,250 to 194,750, a new 2026 low and the lowest of the 54 weeks the release tables. Raw claims fell 2,951 when the seasonals expected a rise of 2,539, so the beat came from the raw filings, not the adjustment. Continuing claims rose 23,000 to 1,718,000 against 1,710,000 expected, after the prior week was revised down 6,000 to 1,695,000, the lowest in the table. That rise is raw too: unadjusted continuing claims rose 10,189 when the seasonals expected a fall of 10,169. Insured unemployment rate 1.1% for a ninth week. Against a year ago: initial claims −17.1%, continuing claims −12.4%. New York's 2,609 jump last week was construction, hospitality and health care layoffs; in the advance week, Texas fell 1,765 and New York fell 1,203.

What It Changes

• Nothing in the rate path, and that cuts toward December. At 189,000 against 196,000 consensus (TradingEconomics), the last labour read before Friday's payrolls shows layoffs at the joint low of the year.
• This week's beat is clean. Raw claims fell when the seasonal factors expected them to rise, so the adjustment did not manufacture the drop.
• The one soft line is continuing claims, up 23,000 on raw filings, but it follows a week when raw continuing claims ran about 18,700 below the pattern. Across the two weeks they roughly cancel, and the 4-week average moved just 1,000.
• For December, the labour side still does not argue against a hike. With the funds rate at 3.75-4.00% (Fed) and a December hike priced near 79% before the data (TradingEconomics), steady layoffs leave the decision to inflation.

Impact

• USD — Slight bullish — a clean beat on initial claims and a new low in the 4-week average remove a labour-market reason for the Fed to wait in December.
• This release shared 08:30 with the Q3 productivity and unit labour costs estimate, so no market move can be attributed to claims alone.
• Before the data, as of about 06:35 ET, DXY was roughly flat after a 0.5% fall on Wednesday, and the 10-year closed Wednesday at 4.90% (US Treasury).
• US Indices (ES / NQ / YM / RTY) — Neutral — low layoffs support spending, but they also keep a hike on the table; the chip selling, not the data, was doing the work in NQ this morning.
• RTY is the most domestically exposed of the four, and the read is strongest there: low layoffs are a support, while the hike risk is the offset.
• Pre-release, as of about 06:35 ET: RTY +0.74%, YM +0.63%, ES +0.17%, NQ −0.46% against Wednesday's settles.
• Gold (GC) — Slight bearish — a firm labour print adds to the hike case and to real yields, which weigh on a metal that pays nothing.
• Gold was +1.78% overnight before the release on top of Wednesday's +3.37%, a bid that this morning's Open noted was no longer only a dollar move; a strong claims print that lifts the 2-year is the test of it.

Inside The Number

Initial claims for the week ending 31 October came in at 189,000, down 6,000 from the previous week's revised 195,000, against a consensus of 196,000 (TradingEconomics). That ties 18 July (189,000) as the lowest week of 2026. Only 25 April (190,000) comes close. The 2026 average to date is 208,068 across 44 weeks.

The streak is now eight weeks. Every week since the week to 12 September has printed at or below 200,000: 198,000, 198,000, 199,000, 198,000, 200,000, 195,000, 195,000 and now 189,000. Eleven of 2026's 44 weeks have printed below 200,000, and seven of those came in the last eight weeks.

The beat is genuine. Unadjusted claims fell 2,951, or 1.6%, to 176,698. The seasonal factors expected a rise of 2,539, or 1.4%. Raw claims ran about 5,500 below the normal pattern for the week, which is more than the whole 6,000 drop in the adjusted number. Unadjusted claims are 18.2% below the comparable 2025 week of 216,026.

The 4-week average set another low. It fell 2,250 to 194,750. The prior average was revised up 250 to 197,000. That is the lowest of 2026 and the lowest in the 54 weeks the release tables, a third straight weekly decline. Against the year-ago 225,500 it is 13.6% lower.

Continuing claims are the one line that moved the wrong way. Insured unemployment for the week ending 24 October rose 23,000 to 1,718,000, against a 1,710,000 consensus. The prior week was revised down 6,000 to 1,695,000, the seventh straight week of downward revisions and now the lowest week in the table, below 1,699,000 on 19 September. The unadjusted figure rose 10,189 when the seasonals expected a fall of 10,169, so raw continuing claims ran about 20,400 above the pattern. That is the hidden detail under a strong headline. But it comes straight after a week in which raw continuing claims ran about 18,700 below the pattern, and the 4-week average rose just 1,000 to 1,709,500, near its 1,707,000 low. Against a year ago, continuing claims are 12.4% lower.

The insured unemployment rate held at 1.1%, against 1.3% a year ago, for a ninth consecutive week.

Against the Fed. This is the last labour data before Friday's payrolls, and it is the strongest claims print of the autumn. Two members dissented for a hike at the October meeting, and nothing here argues for patience on jobs: new layoffs are at the joint low of the year, and the continuing-claims rise is a single raw week that offsets the one before it. The December decision still rests on inflation.

The Internals

Initial claims, seasonally adjusted unless marked, week ending 31 October:

Measure · This week · Prior week · Change · Year ago · vs year ago

Initial claims, adjusted · 189,000 · 195,000 · −6,000 · 228,000 · −17.1%

Initial claims, not adjusted · 176,698 · 179,649 · −2,951 · 216,026 · −18.2%

4-week moving average, adjusted · 194,750 · 197,000 · −2,250 · 225,500 · −13.6%

Consensus for the headline · 196,000 · n/a · Actual below by 7,000 · n/a · n/a

Prior week as first reported · 194,000 · n/a · Revised up 1,000 · n/a · n/a

Continuing claims and the insured rate, week ending 24 October:

Measure · This week · Prior week · Change · Year ago · vs year ago

Insured unemployment, adjusted · 1,718,000 · 1,695,000 · +23,000 · 1,962,000 · −12.4%

Insured unemployment, not adjusted · 1,494,812 · 1,484,623 · +10,189 · 1,712,402 · −12.7%

4-week moving average, adjusted · 1,709,500 · 1,708,500 · +1,000 · 1,947,500 · −12.2%

Insured unemployment rate, adjusted · 1.1% · 1.1% · 0.0pp · 1.3% · −0.2pp

Insured unemployment rate, not adjusted · 1.0% · 1.0% · 0.0pp · 1.1% · −0.1pp

Consensus for continuing claims · 1,710,000 · n/a · Actual above by 8,000 · n/a · n/a

Prior week as first reported · 1,701,000 · n/a · Revised down 6,000 · n/a · n/a

The seasonal adjustment, this week against last week:

Week ending · Actual unadjusted change · Change the seasonals expected · Read

31 October, initial claims · −2,951 · +2,539 · Raw about 5,500 below the pattern; the beat is genuine

24 October, initial claims · +5,648 as first reported · +6,040 · Neutral

24 October, continuing claims · +10,189 · −10,169 · Raw ran about 20,400 above the pattern

17 October, continuing claims · +14,007 as first reported · +32,725 · Raw ran about 18,700 below the pattern

The 4-week average, recent run:

Week ending · Initial claims · 4-week average

26 September · 199,000 · 200,500

3 October · 198,000 · 198,250

10 October · 200,000 · 198,750

17 October · 195,000 · 198,000

24 October · 195,000 · 197,000

31 October · 189,000 · 194,750

Where the levels sit within 2026:

Reading · Value · Context

Initial claims · 189,000 · Ties 18 July as the lowest of 44 weeks in 2026

Weeks below 200,000 in 2026 · 11 · Seven of them in the last eight weeks

Consecutive weeks at or below 200,000 · 8 · Since the week to 12 September

2026 average to date · 208,068 · Against 228,000 in the comparable 2025 week

4-week average · 194,750 · New 2026 low; lowest in the 54 weeks tabled

Insured unemployment · 1,718,000 · Prior week, 1,695,000, is now the table low

Insured unemployment, 4-week average · 1,709,500 · Low in the table is 1,707,000, the week to 3 October

Insured unemployment rate · 1.1% · Ninth straight week

Continued weeks claimed in all programs, unadjusted, week ending 17 October:

Program · This week · Prior week · Change · Year ago

Regular state · 1,480,638 · 1,472,165 · +8,473 · 1,701,047

Federal employees · 5,128 · 4,934 · +194 · 23,194

Newly discharged veterans · 4,941 · 4,975 · −34 · 4,796

Extended benefits · 9 · 32 · −23 · 44

State additional benefits · 3,579 · 3,609 · −30 · 2,887

Work-sharing · 13,407 · 13,477 · −70 · 24,539

Total · 1,507,702 · 1,499,192 · +8,510 · 1,756,507

State And Program Detail

State comments on last week's large moves, unadjusted initial claims, week ending 24 October (states attach comments a week late):

State · Change · State-supplied comment

New York · +2,609 · Layoffs in construction, accommodation and food services, and health care and social assistance

Texas · +1,564 · No comment

California · +1,043 · No comment

Michigan · −1,813 · Fewer layoffs in manufacturing

• New York's rise has its answer, and it is spread across three industries rather than one plant or sector, and the advance data for the week to 31 October shows New York already falling back 1,203.
• Michigan confirmed its manufacturing layoffs have stopped, but its insured unemployment rose 4,239, or 10.6%, to 44,327 in the week to 24 October, which is what earlier manufacturing layoffs feeding through into continuing claims would look like.
• This week's advance state data has no state above a 1,000 rise. The largest raw moves in the week to 31 October:

State · This week · Prior week · Change · Change in %

Texas · 13,201 · 14,966 · −1,765 · −11.8%

New York · 13,397 · 14,600 · −1,203 · −8.2%

Kentucky · 1,221 · 2,020 · −799 · −39.6%

Oregon · 4,835 · 4,037 · +798 · +19.8%

Illinois · 7,394 · 6,603 · +791 · +12.0%

Florida · 4,518 · 5,198 · −680 · −13.1%

California · 40,273 · 39,628 · +645 · +1.6%

Washington · 5,873 · 5,260 · +613 · +11.7%

• Where the continuing-claims rise sat. Unadjusted insured unemployment in the week to 24 October rose most in Washington (+4,859), Michigan (+4,239), California (+3,162), New York (+2,003), Oregon (+1,963) and Minnesota (+1,940), and fell most in Florida (−5,246) and Arizona (−2,840).
• No state comments come with advance data, so the reasons behind Oregon's and Illinois's rises arrive next week.
• Highest insured unemployment rates, week ending 17 October: New Jersey 2.0%, Washington 1.8%, California 1.7%, Massachusetts 1.7%, Puerto Rico 1.6%, Nevada, Oregon and Rhode Island 1.5%, New York 1.4%, Illinois 1.3%. Last week's Illinois typo (13.1%) is corrected in this release.
• Federal workers: 552 initial claims from former federal civilian employees in the week to 24 October, up 110, against 9,436 in the same week of 2025. Continued federal claims were 5,128, against 23,194 a year ago.
• Extended benefits: no state triggered on in the week to 17 October.

Against This Morning's Open

• The Open listed initial claims at 196,000 expected against 194,000 prior, and continuing claims at 1,710,000 against 1,701,000. Initial claims came in below at 189,000; continuing claims came in above at 1,718,000.
• The Open called 08:30 "the fulcrum" once the Bank of England was out, and said a jump in claims "would sit badly with a 79% December hike price". There was no jump: the headline went the other way, so claims leave the hike price where it was.

What This Sets Up

• Next claims report: Thursday 12 November 2026, 08:30 ET, covering the week to 7 November.
• Continuing claims are the line to watch. A second week of raw continuing claims above the seasonal pattern would turn this week's rise into a trend; a fall back toward 1.70 million would confirm it was the mirror of the week before.
• Oregon and Illinois are the states to watch. Both rose by about 800 in the advance week with no comment yet; a single-industry comment next week makes them one-offs.
• The streak would break above 200,000. A ninth week at or below 200,000 keeps the 4-week average falling; a print above 205,000 would be the first sign that the autumn low is in.

What Is This?

• What it is: The Department of Labor's weekly count of new claims for state unemployment insurance (initial claims) and of people still claiming benefits (continuing claims, or insured unemployment). Initial claims cover the week just ended; continuing claims run a week behind. Both are counted by state agencies, seasonally adjusted with factors BLS sets each year, and the prior week is revised as states report by claimant's residence.
• Why it matters: Initial claims are the most timely read on layoffs, and continuing claims show how quickly people who lose jobs find new ones. With the funds rate at 3.75-4.00% and the Fed weighing a December hike, steady claims mean the labour market gives the Fed no reason to wait.
• How to read it: Week-to-week moves are noisy, so the 4-week average is the better trend measure. Compare the raw change with what the seasonal factors expected to see how much of a move is the adjustment. Insured unemployment is not the same as total unemployment: it only counts people receiving state benefits. Readings near 200,000 are historically low for a workforce of this size.

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_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._