Oil gave back $4. The 10-year kept going

Rundown · 2026-09-29

Crude gave back its whole Iran spike on Monday, and yields did not follow it down. WTI traded as high as $96.54 after Trump rejected Tehran's Hormuz plan. Then Saudi Arabia restored its East-West pipeline to about 3.5 million barrels a day, and November settled at $92.60, up only 19 cents. The 10-year ignored the reversal and closed at 5.244%, a 19-year high, after touching 5.277% during the session. Gold lost $152.80 (-3.54%), its worst day in more than three months. Overnight, index futures are flat: ES 7,743.25 (-0.05%), NQ +0.11%. The dollar is firmer at DXY 101.44, and the euro's overnight low of 1.1333 is 8 pips above its 52-week low. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates to 4.60%, its fourth hike this year, and blamed energy prices. There is nothing at 08:30 today. JOLTS and consumer confidence land at 10:00, and three Fed speakers follow after 13:00.

Overnight

• Against Monday's settles, as of about 06:25 ET (delayed quotes, MarketWatch). ES (Dec) 7,743.25, -3.50 (-0.05%) from 7,746.75 · NQ 30,600.75, +34.50 (+0.11%) from 30,566.25 · YM 51,807, -30 (-0.06%) from 51,837 · RTY 2,838.1, -2.0 (-0.07%) from 2,840.1
• Monday's settles reconcile with Friday's. ES -57.00 (-0.73%) · NQ -323.00 (-1.05%) · YM -326 (-0.62%) · RTY -19.2 (-0.67%)
• Reference levels, and nothing more. Globex ranges so far: ES 7,716.00-7,754.50 · NQ 30,372.25-30,635.25 · YM 51,644-51,873 · RTY 2,823.9-2,841.5. All four opened within a point or two of their settles, dipped in Asia and have come back. The ranges are narrow for a week with PCE and payrolls in it
• Asia was lower outside China. Nikkei 65,481.27, -396.35 (-0.60%) · Hang Seng 24,523.57, -118.94 (-0.48%) · Shanghai Composite 3,830.45, +6.83 (+0.18%) · ASX 200 +0.34%, higher on the day the RBA hiked
• Europe is higher, led by tech. DAX 25,501.30, +126.88 (+0.50%) · FTSE 100 10,719.64, +34.76 (+0.33%) · STOXX 600 +0.51%. Reuters has semiconductor names leading after a report on Anthropic's financing plans. European equities are again declining to trade the US yield story
• Iran: talks are indirect and unscheduled. Qatari mediators were expected to meet Foreign Minister Araghchi and US officials on Monday or Tuesday over an amended version of the seven-day Hormuz plan, per InvestingLive. Tehran says it is still waiting for a formal US reply. The desk has found no confirmed meeting as of this morning. A headline can land at any hour, in either direction

The Dollar & FX

• DXY 101.44, +0.24 (+0.24%) from Monday's 101.20 (ICE, via MarketWatch), range 101.18-101.49. The 52-week high is 101.80. The 2-year made a new 52-week high overnight at 4.966%, and the front end is doing the lifting. October hike odds sit between 65% and 72%: about 72% on CME FedWatch as reported on Monday (the desk did not pull the tool directly), and 65-69% on Polymarket and Kalshi. The Fed raised to 3.75%-4.00% on 16 September
• 6E is carrying the move. EUR/USD 1.1341, -0.0032 (-0.28%) from 1.1373, range 1.1333-1.1379. The 52-week low is 1.1325. Europe imports its energy, the rate gap is widening against it, and the ECB has Lagarde, Lane and Cipollone on the wires today. A break of 1.1325 would be a new yearly low for the pair
• 6A fell on a rate hike. AUD/USD 0.6990, -0.0029 (-0.41%) from 0.7019, range 0.6978-0.7030. The RBA raised its cash rate 25bp to 4.60%, unanimously, and said it would hike again "if needed". Its statement said global energy prices are "much higher" than it had assumed in August. The hike was widely expected, and the Aussie fell about 0.3% on the announcement, per market reports. This is the weakest major this morning
• 6J is steady under a verbal ceiling. USD/JPY 157.47, +0.09 (+0.06%) from 157.38, range 157.21-157.72. Finance Minister Katayama said this morning that an undervalued yen is a problem and that she agreed with Treasury Secretary Bessent to strengthen cooperation. This follows Mimura's warning on Monday. The pair is up only slightly while US yields sit at 19-year highs
• 6C and 6B are weaker. USD/CAD 1.4200, +0.0024 (+0.17%) from 1.4176, trading at its overnight high of 1.4204. The 52-week high is 1.4251. Crude is down 0.4% overnight, so the loonie has no oil support this morning. GBP/USD 1.3232, -0.0024 (-0.18%) from 1.3256, range 1.3221-1.3260. The desk has no sterling-specific driver; it is moving with the dollar

Energy & Metals

• CL: November settled $92.60, +$0.19 (+0.21%) on Monday. Investrade and MarketWatch agree, and the figure reconciles with Friday's $92.41. It is $92.24, -$0.36 (-0.39%) now, range $92.08-$94.74, and near the low of that range. December is $88.68, so the November-December spread is about $3.56, down from $4.24 at this time yesterday
• The mechanism: supply beat the headline. Monday's spike to $96.54 priced the rejected Hormuz plan. The fade came from Saudi Arabia, which restored East-West pipeline flows to about 3.5 million barrels a day after repairs, per CNBC. InvestingLive also reports Middle Eastern crude exports at about 13 million barrels a day in September, the most since the conflict began in February. Talk of a US diesel export curb widened the Brent-WTI spread
• Brent: November expires tomorrow. November Brent settled $105.28, +$0.96, and is $105.04 now. December settled $97.83 and is $97.49, -$0.34, range $97.10-$100.28. The November-December spread is about $7.55. Continuous-contract charts will roll to December after Wednesday, and the front-month price will drop about $7.50 when they do. That is a roll, not a move
• GC: December settled $4,168.40, -$152.80 (-3.54%) on Monday. Investrade and MarketWatch agree, and it reconciles with Friday's $4,321.20. It is $4,181.30, +$12.90 (+0.31%) now, range $4,145.20-$4,182.80, and trading at the top of it. Silver is -0.93% overnight after -4.76% on Monday. Gold fell hardest on a day when oil finished flat. That is the clearest evidence yet that gold is trading on yields, not on the Gulf
• Rates. 10-year 5.239%, -0.5bp from Monday's 5.244% close (Tullett, via MarketWatch; AP has 5.23%), range 5.223%-5.266%. The 52-week high of 5.277% was set on Monday. 2-year 4.939%, +0.4bp, with a new 52-week high of 4.966% overnight. 2s10s is about 30bp

Where We Left Off

• Monday's RTH close, per AP: Dow 51,481.51 (-347.11, -0.7%) · S&P 500 7,683.69 (-59.72, -0.8%) · Nasdaq Composite 26,820.38 (-248.34, -0.9%) · Russell 2000 2,817.91 (-19.64, -0.7%). All four reconcile with Friday's published closes, and MarketWatch matches all four independently. The Nasdaq-100 fell 1.08%. Investrade printed the Russell at about 2,821, which is wrong for the second session running; the brief uses AP's
• Breadth was poor. The Nasdaq had 50 new 52-week highs and 461 new lows, NYSE decliners outnumbered advancers two to one, and eight of 11 S&P sectors fell, per Investrade. The VIX closed at 16.10, barely changed. Stocks sold off steadily without any sign of panic
• What carries over: oil's reversal removed one input to the rate trade, and yields rose anyway. The bond market is now pricing the Fed, supply and inflation expectations on its own terms. The next test of that is Wednesday's PCE, not today's calendar

On The Calendar Today

Time ET · Event · Consensus · Prior · Hits

08:30 · No scheduled release · n/a · n/a · n/a

08:55 · Redbook same-store sales y/y · n/a · 7.6% · minor

09:00 · Case-Shiller 20-city y/y, Jul · 2.0% · 2.1% · USD

09:00 · FHFA house prices m/m, Jul · 0.1% · 0.0% · USD

10:00 · JOLTS job openings, Aug · 7.24M · 7.271M · USD · GC · ES/NQ

10:00 · Conference Board confidence, Sep · 89.0 · 89.4 · USD · ES

10:30 · Dallas Fed services, Sep · n/a · 4.2 · USD

11:30 · 6-week and 52-week bill auctions · n/a · 3.870% / 3.980% · USD

13:00 · Fed's Goolsbee (Chicago) · n/a · n/a · USD · GC

13:30 · Fed's Musalem (St. Louis) · n/a · n/a · USD · GC

14:00 · Fed's Williams (New York) · n/a · n/a · USD · GC · ES/NQ

16:30 · API crude stocks · -1.9M · +1.786M · CL

Any time · US-Iran talks via Qatar · n/a · n/a · CL · GC · USD · ES

The calendar was enumerated from TradingView and Trading Economics, which agree on every release. The 08:30 slot is genuinely empty. ADP does not publish its weekly NER Pulse in a week with a monthly report, and the monthly report is tomorrow. The Census advance indicators report is also tomorrow at 08:30. Consensus figures are Trading Economics'. The API consensus is TradingView's.

The fulcrum is 10:00 and then Williams at 14:00. JOLTS is the first of four labour reads this week, ahead of ADP, claims and payrolls. A drop in openings would be the first soft labour number since the Fed hiked, and it would test the 2-year at its high. Williams is the FOMC's vice chair, so his read on an October hike carries more weight than the other two.

The rest of the week, as previously reported: Wednesday brings ADP at 08:15, PCE at 08:30 (core seen at 0.3% m/m) and Micron after the close. Thursday brings claims and ISM manufacturing. Friday brings September payrolls, with Trading Economics at 84K against 162K in August.

Index Movers

Ranked by index contribution. The Dow is price-weighted, so $1 in any constituent is worth roughly 5.9 Dow points (divisor about 0.168, secondary source; treat these as approximate). Prices are from MarketWatch; pre-market quotes are from about 06:35 ET.

• GS, BA and MSFT were two-thirds of the Dow's decline. GS $916.28, -$19.17 (-2.05%), about -114 Dow points. BA $184.39, -$13.68 (-6.91%), about -81, after the Wall Street Journal reported a 737 MAX software issue affecting automated flight guidance during a missed approach. The FAA is reviewing it. MSFT $509.22, -$6.95 (-1.35%), about -41. Together, about -236 of the Dow's -347
• NVDA $228.86, +$3.79 (+1.68%) after adding $150 billion to its buyback, the largest single authorization in US history, bringing the total to $235 billion. At a $5.52T market cap that was roughly +$91B in value, the largest positive contribution to the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq-100. It is +0.81% pre-market
• META $715.62, -$36.04 (-4.79%), roughly -$80B in value and the largest drag on NQ among the names the desk checked. That is two sessions of declines since the Connect rally. Meta also hired MongoDB's CEO, CJ Desai, to run a new enterprise AI unit, and MongoDB shares plunged. Meta is +0.51% pre-market
• MU $1,053.98, -$28.30 (-2.61%) (S&P 500, Nasdaq-100) and +1.58% pre-market at $1,070.64. Correction to Monday's brief: Micron reports fiscal Q4 on Wednesday, 30 September, after the close, per its own release, not Tuesday. Its guidance was revenue of $50B ± $1B. At $1.19T in market value, it is the AI-hardware print NQ is waiting for
• NEM $116.05, -$5.38 (-4.43%) (S&P 500) fell with gold and is +1.24% pre-market as gold bounces. It is small at index level and a clean read on the metal

What Would Change The Read

• Scoring Monday's calls. We asked whether gold would hold $4,172. It settled at $4,168.40, just below, and made an overnight low of $4,145.20 before recovering. We asked whether the 10-year would hold above 5.2%. It did, closing at 5.244%. We asked whether USD/JPY would revisit 156.51. It did not, and closed at 157.38. We said a confirmed meeting with Iran would reverse the oil move. Oil reversed without one, on Saudi supply
• Whether EUR/USD holds 1.1325. That is the 52-week low. A break would confirm the dollar is being driven by the rate gap rather than by haven buying
• Whether JOLTS moves the 2-year. The 2-year is at a 52-week high of 4.966%. A soft openings number that leaves it there would say the market is pricing inflation, not the labour market
• Whether gold holds its overnight high of $4,182.80 if yields keep rising. It bounced with the 10-year flat. A rise in gold alongside higher yields would be the first break in the pattern
• Whether the Qatari channel produces a meeting. Crude has already priced out Monday's spike. A confirmed meeting would test the November-December spread; a strike or strait incident would test Monday's $96.54 high

The Bottom Line

Monday separated oil from yields. Crude spiked on Iran and gave it all back when Saudi supply returned, yet the 10-year still closed at a 19-year high and gold had its worst day in three months. The bond market is now setting the tone for the dollar, gold and NQ on its own, and today's calendar has little to challenge it before JOLTS at 10:00 and Williams at 14:00. The RBA hike overnight is a reminder that energy inflation is pushing other central banks to hike too. Futures are flat into a week that builds to PCE on Wednesday, Micron that evening and payrolls on Friday.

_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._