New Home Sales 684K vs 620K Est — Best Month of 2026, and July Revised Up 36K
Fundamentals · 2026-09-24
New single-family home sales 684,000 SAAR in August vs 620,000 est — +6.4% (±19.5%) from a July revised up to 643,000 from 607,000, and -2.0% (±15.7%) on the year; the highest rate of 2026 and the most since December; homes for sale 483,000, unchanged; months' supply 8.5 from 9.0; median price $393,700, +0.4% m/m and -5.8% y/y; average price $478,700, -8.8% y/y (±7.7%) — statistically significant; completed homes for sale 113,000, the lowest in 13 months; homes sold before completion 48% of sales from 42%; Midwest +84.9% (±51.2%), significant; West -26.8% y/y (±22.9%), significant. Next release 27 October.
What It Changes
- A 64,000 beat is large, but the headline change is inside Census's own error band. The +6.4% monthly gain carries a ±19.5% confidence interval, so Census cannot say sales rose — what it can say is that July's reported collapse was mostly revised away.
- The two-month picture is the real finding. July first printed at 607,000 and a 10.5% fall; it is now 643,000, and August is 684,000. The three-month average is 666,000, up from 650,000 — housing demand did not stall in the summer.
- Builders are clearing finished stock and selling earlier. Completed homes for sale fell to a 13-month low of 113,000 while not-started inventory rose to a 13-month high — that is not the overbuilt-spec-home picture July's first-reported 9.6 months' supply implied.
- Prices are doing the work. The average price is down 8.8% on the year, a statistically significant fall, and the share of homes sold under $300,000 rose to 22% — builders are selling volume by selling cheaper and smaller.
- All of this predates September's rate shock. August contracts were signed before the 10-year crossed 5.1%, so this is the demand picture going into the yield spike, not through it.
Impact
- USD — Slight bullish — a firmer housing read adds to a morning of strong US data (claims at 197,000, the PMI at 58.4 yesterday) that all supports the hike pricing behind the dollar's two-month high.
- It lands after the 08:30 block, with DXY at 101.27 into the session (TradingView, about 06:45 ET); a 10:00 housing print rarely moves the dollar on its own, and this one is compounding a read already in place.
- US Indices (ES / NQ / YM / RTY) — Mixed — better housing demand is a positive for the economy and for homebuilders, but it is one more strong print for a market that is currently treating strong data as a reason to price hikes.
- RTY has the most direct exposure, through homebuilders and regional banks, and it closed Wednesday -1.8% on the move in yields; a sales beat does not offset a 10-year at 5.1% for the rate-sensitive index.
- YM carries Home Depot, which fell 2.83% on Wednesday as 30-year mortgage rates reached about 7.26%, a near two-year high, per The Open's sourcing — this release describes August, and that rate move is September.
- Gold (GC) — Slight bearish — another data point for a labour and housing economy that is not slowing keeps real yields supported; GC was already below $4,300 before the print.
Inside The Number
Sales of new single-family homes ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 684,000 in August, against a consensus of 620,000. That is 6.4% above July's revised 643,000 and 2.0% below August 2025's 698,000. Census puts a ±19.5% confidence interval on the monthly change and ±15.7% on the annual one — both include zero, so neither change is statistically significant.
The revision is as important as the headline. July was first reported at 607,000, a 10.5% monthly decline that led last month's brief. It has been revised up 36,000, or 5.9%, to 643,000. June was revised to 672,000 from 678,000. Measured against the July figure the market saw a month ago, August is 12.7% higher. Census says the preliminary sales estimate is revised by about 6.7% on average; July's revision was close to that, and it reversed most of the decline.
Where 684,000 sits. It is the highest rate of 2026 and the strongest month since December's 723,000. Of the 13 months in the release, four were higher, all of them in late 2025. The 2026 average through August is about 643,000. Not seasonally adjusted, 57,000 homes sold in August against 53,000 in July, and year-to-date sales are 450,000 against 463,000 in 2025, -2.9% (±5.1%) — flat, statistically.
Inventory held, and it moved to an earlier stage. Seasonally adjusted homes for sale were 483,000, unchanged on the month and 2.0% below a year ago. Months' supply fell to 8.5 from 9.0, equal to August 2025. The composition shifted. Completed homes for sale fell to 113,000, the lowest in the 13 months tabled and down from 123,000 a year ago. Not-started inventory rose to 114,000, the highest in that window. Homes under construction for sale were 256,000. So the finished spec homes that builders carry at a cost are being worked down, and more of the pipeline is homes not yet begun.
Buyers bought earlier in the build. Of August's 684,000 sales, 248,000 were homes under construction, the most in the 13 months tabled, and 83,000 had not been started. Together that is 48% of sales before completion, up from 42% in July. Completed-home sales fell to 353,000, and their share of sales dropped to 52% from 58% in July and 60% a year ago. The median completed home for sale has been on the market 3.2 months (not adjusted), unchanged from July.
Prices are where builders are making the sales. The median price was $393,700, up 0.4% on the month but 5.8% below August 2025's $417,900 — neither change statistically significant — and the second-lowest in the 13 months, above only July's $392,200. The average price fell 9.1% on the month to $478,700 and 8.8% on the year, and the annual fall clears its ±7.7% interval, one of three statistically significant changes in the release. The price mix explains the average: 22% of homes sold under $300,000, the highest share since September 2025, while homes at $1 million and over fell to 4%, the lowest share in the 13 months. Fewer expensive homes pull the average down harder than the median.
The regions are noisy, and two of the moves clear the bar. The Midwest jumped 84.9% to 98,000 from 53,000, which is statistically significant against a ±51.2% interval — though July's 53,000 was itself the lowest Midwest reading in the table, so this is partly a rebound. The South rose 6.9% to 451,000, its second-highest in 13 months. The West fell 15.2% to 112,000, tied for the lowest in the table, and it is 26.8% below a year ago, the other statistically significant regional move. The Northeast fell to 23,000, a region with a ±33% average standard error.
The Internals
Headline measures, seasonally adjusted:
Measure · August · July revised · Change · Year ago · vs year ago · Significant
New homes sold, SAAR · 684,000 · 643,000 · +6.4% (±19.5%) · 698,000 · -2.0% (±15.7%) · No, no
Homes for sale · 483,000 · 483,000 · 0.0% (±1.5%) · 493,000 · -2.0% (±4.0%) · No, no
Months' supply · 8.5 · 9.0 · -5.6% (±17.2%) · 8.5 · 0.0% · No, no
Median price · $393,700 · $392,200 · +0.4% (±7.4%) · $417,900 · -5.8% (±8.2%) · No, no
Average price · $478,700 · $526,400 · -9.1% (±11.2%) · $525,100 · -8.8% (±7.7%) · No, yes
Consensus for sales · 620,000 · n/a · Actual beat by 64,000 · n/a · n/a · n/a
Revisions to the sales rate:
Month · First reported · Now · Revision
July · 607,000 · 643,000 · +36,000
June · 678,000 · 672,000 · -6,000
Sales by region, SAAR:
Region · August · July · Change · vs year ago · Significant
Northeast · 23,000 · 36,000 · -36.1% (±36.9%) · -20.7% (±55.1%) · No, no
Midwest · 98,000 · 53,000 · +84.9% (±51.2%) · +22.5% (±46.1%) · Yes, no
South · 451,000 · 422,000 · +6.9% (±27.7%) · +3.4% (±23.1%) · No, no
West · 112,000 · 132,000 · -15.2% (±25.7%) · -26.8% (±22.9%) · No, yes
Sales and inventory by stage of construction, seasonally adjusted:
Stage · Sold, August · Sold, July · Sold, year ago · For sale, August · For sale, July · For sale, year ago
Not started · 83,000 · 66,000 · 61,000 · 114,000 · 109,000 · 96,000
Under construction · 248,000 · 201,000 · 218,000 · 256,000 · 260,000 · 274,000
Completed · 353,000 · 376,000 · 419,000 · 113,000 · 114,000 · 123,000
Total · 684,000 · 643,000 · 698,000 · 483,000 · 483,000 · 493,000
Share of homes sold by price, not adjusted:
Price band · August · July · August 2025 · 2025 annual
Under $300,000 · 22% · 19% · 18% · 18%
$300,000 to $399,999 · 30% · 34% · 28% · 28%
$400,000 to $499,999 · 22% · 18% · 19% · 18%
$500,000 to $599,999 · 9% · 9% · 13% · 12%
$600,000 to $799,999 · 10% · 12% · 11% · 13%
$800,000 to $999,999 · 3% · 3% · 4% · 4%
$1,000,000 and over · 4% · 6% · 7% · 6%
The sales rate over 13 months, SAAR:
Month · Sales · Months' supply
August 2025 · 698,000 · 8.5
September 2025 · 714,000 · 8.2
October 2025 · 652,000 · 9.0
November 2025 · 757,000 · 7.7
December 2025 · 723,000 · 7.9
January 2026 · 576,000 · 9.9
February 2026 · 630,000 · 9.3
March 2026 · 659,000 · 8.7
April 2026 · 641,000 · 9.0
May 2026 · 636,000 · 9.2
June 2026 · 672,000 · 8.6
July 2026 · 643,000 · 9.0
August 2026 · 684,000 · 8.5
Where The Sales Came From
The builder's side of this report is the stage-of-construction table, and it changed direction. For most of 2026 the concern was finished homes sitting unsold — spec inventory that costs a builder carry every month it stays on the lot. In August, completed-home inventory fell to 113,000, its lowest in 13 months and 8% below a year ago. That is the inventory that forces price cuts, and it is shrinking.
The pipeline moved back to pre-sales. Not-started homes for sale rose to 114,000, the highest in the table, and homes sold before breaking ground rose to 83,000, the most since June's 84,000 and up from 61,000 a year ago. Builders sell pre-construction homes when they are confident in demand and want to lock buyers in before costs rise. A market clearing finished stock and selling unbuilt homes is not one where builders are stuck.
The price data says how they did it. The average price is down $46,400 on the year, and the sub-$300,000 band has its largest share since September 2025. The release does not report incentives or mortgage rate buydowns, which is how builders typically compete when mortgage rates are high, so the price table is the only direct evidence here — and it points to a cheaper mix of homes, not a stronger buyer.
The South carries the national number. At 451,000, it is 66% of all sales. The West, at 112,000, is the weak region and the only one with a statistically significant annual decline. The Midwest's jump to 98,000 is large and statistically significant, but it follows a July reading of 53,000 that was the lowest in the table, so two months together are closer to normal than either month alone.
Against This Morning's Open
- The Open had the consensus right and the prior stale — The Open tabled new home sales at 10:00 with a 620K consensus and a 607K prior; July was revised to 643K this morning, and August printed 684K.
- It tagged the release USD and ES, which is right for direction and generous for size. The Open's fulcrums were the 13:00 7-year auction and the Xi meeting; a housing beat inside a ±19.5% confidence interval does not change that ranking.
What This Sets Up
- Next release — Tuesday 27 October, 10:00 ET, covering September, the first month of sales signed with the 10-year above 5% and 30-year mortgage rates at a near two-year high.
- Whether August holds on revision. July moved 36,000 in a month; an August print this far above consensus is as exposed to revision as July was, in the other direction.
- Whether completed inventory keeps falling. Finished homes for sale have come down from 128,000 in January to 113,000; a move back toward the year-ago 123,000 would say the spec overhang is rebuilding.
- Whether prices keep carrying the volume. If the average price stays near $480,000 and sales hold, builders are buying demand with price; if prices stabilize and sales hold, demand is real.
What Is This?
- What it is: The Census Bureau and HUD's joint monthly survey of new single-family home sales, released around the 24th at 10:00 ET. A sale is recorded when a deposit is taken or a sales agreement is signed, not at closing, which makes it the most forward-looking of the housing demand series. The sample is drawn mainly from building permits. The release also reports homes for sale, months' supply, median and average prices, regional sales, and sales and inventory by stage of construction. Release CB26-155, covering August 2026.
- Why it matters: New home sales capture the marginal buyer at current mortgage rates, and new construction is the part of housing most exposed to the rate path. With the Fed tightening and long yields at a 19-year high, this is the series where higher rates would show up first in housing demand.
- How to read it: Check the confidence interval before the headline — Census publishes a 90% interval on every change, and a monthly move of less than about ±20% is usually not statistically significant. Revisions are large, about 6.7% on average, so the prior month often changes the story. Months' supply divides homes for sale by the sales rate; roughly 6 is a balanced market. The average price moves with the mix of homes sold, so read it alongside the price-band table, and trust the median more.
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_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._