Existing Home Sales 3.98M (vs 3.98M Est) — Supply Hits Its Highest Level Since 2019

Fundamentals · 2026-09-10

Existing home sales 3.98 million in August, exactly matching consensus, down 2.0 percent on the month and 1.2 percent on the year — the first print below 4.0 million since June 2025 and a third consecutive monthly decline; homes for sale reached 1.62 million, the first time above 1.6 million since November 2019, up 5.9 percent on the year, giving 4.9 months' supply, a ten-year high; the median price rose to $429,100, up 1.6 percent, a 38th straight monthly year-over-year gain — but below the 3.1 percent that average hourly earnings rose, so real home prices are falling; the 30-year mortgage rose to 6.67 percent from 6.54; first-time buyers 30 percent and investors 15 percent, down from 21 percent a year ago; the West median fell 0.2 percent, the only region negative; distressed sales 2 percent, unchanged.

What Is This?

• What it is: The National Association of REALTORS' monthly count of completed transactions on existing single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, released at 10:00am ET and drawn from MLS transaction data rather than a survey. It is reported as a seasonally adjusted annual rate — the pace at which sales would run for a year if August repeated twelve times. Existing homes are roughly nine in ten of all US home sales, which makes this the volume read for the housing market as a whole. Alongside it come the median sales price, total homes for sale, months' supply, and the REALTORS Confidence Index, which carries the buyer-mix detail.
• Why it matters: Housing is the single most rate-sensitive sector in the economy and therefore the cleanest place to see whether policy is actually transmitting. It matters more than usual today because the average 30-year mortgage rose in August, to 6.67 percent, at a time when the two-year Treasury sits roughly 67 basis points above the funds-target midpoint — the market is pricing hikes, not cuts, and this release is what that costs. It also lands the day before consumer prices and five days before an FOMC with three standing dissents in favor of a hike.
• How to read it: Read the supply line before the sales line. Sales volume is noisy and revises; months' supply tells you who has the negotiating power, and six months is the conventional dividing line between a seller's market and a balanced one. Then compare price growth against wage growth, because a nominal price increase that trails earnings is a real price decline — the median price streak can keep running for years while housing quietly gets cheaper relative to income. And note what this release is not: the median is a mix statistic, not a same-home price index, so it moves when the composition of what sells changes. Case-Shiller and FHFA are the repeat-sales measures.

Want the full explainer? Economic News Events, Explained breaks down this release and every other one we cover, in plain English.

Summary

Existing home sales ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million in August, down 2.0 percent from July's 4.06 million and down 1.2 percent from a year ago. Consensus was 3.98 million. This is as close to a perfectly in-line print as the series produces, and it is the third consecutive monthly decline — 4.09 million in June, 4.06 million in July, 3.98 million now, a cumulative 2.7 percent since June.

The level is the milestone. NAR's own text puts it plainly: the last time sales activity fell below 4.0 million was June 2025, fourteen months ago. Sales have ground along in a narrow band all year and have now ground their way out of the bottom of it.

The supply side is where this release stops being routine. Total homes for sale reached 1.62 million units, up 3.2 percent on the month and 5.9 percent on the year — and, in NAR's words, the first time since November 2019 that the figure exceeded 1.6 million. That is a period covering the entire pandemic housing cycle. At the current sales pace that stock represents 4.9 months' supply, up from 4.6 in July and 4.6 a year ago, which Lawrence Yun described as "its highest level in over ten years."

Yun's framing was that "the ample supply of homes for sale on the market is giving homebuyers better opportunities to negotiate." That is the correct read, and the composition data backs it. But the arithmetic underneath deserves stating: supply rose 5.9 percent while sales fell 1.2 percent. Months' supply climbs whether the numerator rises or the denominator falls, and here both moved the wrong way for sellers at once.

Prices are still rising, and that is the headline nobody should stop at. The median existing-home price was $429,100, up 1.6 percent from $422,400 — the 38th consecutive month of year-over-year increases, a streak now running three years and two months. But 1.6 percent is a deceleration from the 2.0 percent recorded a month ago, and it sits below the 3.1 percent that average hourly earnings rose over the same twelve months, and well below the 3.7 percent twelve-month headline PCE rate. Measured against wages, homes got about 1.5 percent cheaper over the year. Measured against consumer prices, closer to two percent. The nominal streak is intact and the real one ended some time ago.

That is not a new observation for this feed but it now covers the whole market. FHFA's repeat-sales index was flat in June and running about 0.9 percent annualized on its recent run rate against inflation near 3.5 percent. Case-Shiller has been in real decline for twelve months. Today the NAR median joins them. Three independent price measures, three different methodologies, one direction.

Regionally the price map has inverted from the pandemic pattern. The West, the most expensive region at a $619,100 median, is the only one where prices fell year over year, down 0.2 percent, with sales down 2.7 percent. The Northeast, at $556,900, posted the strongest price growth in the country at up 4.3 percent — but the steepest monthly sales decline, down 4.0 percent to a 480,000 rate. The South, which absorbed most of the building of the last five years, produced the weakest positive price growth at up 0.7 percent to $366,500 and was the only region where sales were unchanged year over year. The Midwest sat between them, up 3.3 percent on price to $340,400 with sales down 3.1 percent on the month.

Read as one picture: where supply was added, prices stalled and volume held. Where it was not, prices held and volume broke. The South is doing what a functioning housing market does, and it is doing it with the smallest price gains in the country.

The buyer mix is the second real finding. Individual investors and second-home buyers were 15 percent of transactions, up a point on the month but down from 21 percent a year ago — a six-point fall, and a 28.6 percent decline in relative share. Over the same period first-time buyers rose to 30 percent from 28. All-cash sales were 27 percent, up from 26 in July but down from 28 a year ago.

Investors are the marginal, discretionary buyer in housing. They buy for appreciation, and they leave when appreciation stops. First-time buyers are the opposite — they buy for shelter, and they arrive when affordability improves. A six-point rotation from one to the other inside twelve months, at the same time as supply hits a seven-year high and real prices turn negative, is a coherent story rather than three coincidences.

The Housing Affordability Index confirms it, at 104.7 against 101.2 a year ago, with improvement in every region and the largest gains exactly where prices were weakest: West +5.9 percent and South +4.5 percent, against Midwest +1.7 and Northeast +0.5.

None of this happened because financing got cheaper. The average 30-year fixed mortgage was 6.67 percent in August, per Freddie Mac, up from 6.54 percent in July and up from 6.59 percent a year ago. Rates rose. Affordability improved anyway, because prices and incomes moved further than rates did — which is the slow, unglamorous way a housing market actually clears.

Yun's demand case rested on labor: "rising wages, which grew 3.1 percent in August, along with 643,000 net new jobs added since the start of the year." The wage figure is correct and verified — average hourly earnings rose 3.1 percent over twelve months in the August employment report. The job count carries a caveat he did not mention. On 28 August the BLS published its preliminary benchmark revision, which marked the March 2026 payroll level down 79,000 in total and 178,000 in the private sector, with government revised up 99,000. The first quarter of Yun's window sits inside that benchmark, and the monthly path will be redistributed when the final revision lands with the January data in February. His argument is not wrong. It is resting on a number that has already been marked down once and will be restated again.

Two things say this is a normalization rather than a break. Distressed sales were 2 percent of transactions, unchanged on the month and unchanged on the year — there is no forced selling in this supply build. And the median time on market was 31 days, up from 29 in July but exactly unchanged from 31 a year ago. Inventory is rising because more homes are being listed, not because listed homes are failing to sell. That distinction is the entire difference between 2026 and 2008.

The cross-market comparison is where it gets uncomfortable for builders. Existing homes now carry 4.9 months' supply; new single-family homes carried 9.6 months in the July Census report, nearly double. And the median new home sold for $393,800 in July against $429,100 for an existing home in August — new construction is now roughly $35,300 cheaper than the resale stock, an inversion of the historic relationship, achieved by building smaller and buying down rates. Builders were already competing on price against a resale market with almost no supply. They are now competing on price against a resale market with the most supply since 2019.

The Internals

The headline against expectations and against the recent path:

Measure · August 2026 · July 2026 · Consensus · Year-over-year

Existing home sales, annual rate · 3.98 million · 4.06 million · 3.98 million · Down 1.2 percent

Month-over-month change · Down 2.0 percent · Down 1.7 percent · Not forecast · Not applicable

Median sales price, all types · $429,100 · $434,100 · Not forecast · Up 1.6 percent

Total homes for sale · 1.62 million · About 1.57 million · Not forecast · Up 5.9 percent

Months' supply · 4.9 months · 4.6 months · Not forecast · Up from 4.6 months

Median days on market · 31 days · 29 days · Not forecast · Unchanged at 31 days

30-year fixed mortgage, monthly average · 6.67 percent · 6.54 percent · Not forecast · Up from 6.59 percent

The three-month path, which is the part the in-line headline hides:

Month · Annual rate · Month-over-month · Note

June 2026 · 4.09 million · Down 2.4 percent · First of the three declines

July 2026 · 4.06 million · Down 1.7 percent · Second of the three

August 2026 · 3.98 million · Down 2.0 percent · First sub-4.0 million since June 2025

Price growth against the two things that matter more than the level:

Comparison · Rate · Read

Median existing-home price, 12-month · Up 1.6 percent · The 38th consecutive positive month

Average hourly earnings, 12-month · Up 3.1 percent · Wages growing roughly twice as fast as house prices

Headline PCE, 12-month · Up 3.7 percent · Real house prices falling about 2 percent

Median price, prior month reading · Up 2.0 percent · Nominal growth decelerating

FHFA repeat-sales index, June · Unchanged on the month · An independent measure saying the same thing

Single-family against condominiums and co-ops:

Property type · Annual rate · Month-over-month · Year-over-year · Median price

Single-family homes · 3.62 million · Down 1.9 percent · Down 1.1 percent · $434,800, up 1.7 percent

Condominiums and co-ops · 360,000 · Down 2.7 percent · Down 2.7 percent · $371,600, up 1.5 percent

The supply build, in the terms that decide negotiating power:

Supply measure · August 2026 · July 2026 · August 2025 · Significance

Total homes for sale · 1.62 million · Up 3.2 percent to here · Up 5.9 percent to here · First above 1.6 million since November 2019

Months' supply, existing homes · 4.9 months · 4.6 months · 4.6 months · Highest in over ten years, per Yun

Months' supply, new homes, July · 9.6 months · 8.5 months in June · Not published in that release · Nearly double the existing-home figure

Distressed share of sales · 2 percent · 2 percent · 2 percent · No forced selling behind the build

Median days on market · 31 days · 29 days · 31 days · Listings are still clearing at last year's speed

The Buyer Mix And The Regions

Who is actually transacting, from the REALTORS Confidence Index:

Buyer category · August 2026 · July 2026 · August 2025 · Twelve-month move

First-time buyers · 30 percent · 29 percent · 28 percent · Up 2 points

All-cash sales · 27 percent · 26 percent · 28 percent · Down 1 point

Investors and second-home buyers · 15 percent · 14 percent · 21 percent · Down 6 points

Distressed sales · 2 percent · 2 percent · 2 percent · Unchanged

The regional table, sorted by what happened to price:

Region · Annual rate · Month-over-month · Year-over-year · Median price · Price, 12-month

Northeast · 480,000 · Down 4.0 percent · Down 2.0 percent · $556,900 · Up 4.3 percent

Midwest · 940,000 · Down 3.1 percent · Down 2.1 percent · $340,400 · Up 3.3 percent

South · 1.84 million · Down 1.6 percent · Unchanged · $366,500 · Up 0.7 percent

West · 720,000 · Unchanged · Down 2.7 percent · $619,100 · Down 0.2 percent

Affordability improved everywhere, and by the most where prices did the least:

Region · Affordability improvement, 12-month · Median price, 12-month · Relationship

West · Up 5.9 percent · Down 0.2 percent · Best affordability gain, only negative price

South · Up 4.5 percent · Up 0.7 percent · Second best, weakest positive price

Midwest · Up 1.7 percent · Up 3.3 percent · Modest gain, firm price

Northeast · Up 0.5 percent · Up 4.3 percent · Smallest gain, strongest price

National index · 104.7, from 101.2 · Up 1.6 percent · Up 3.5 points on the year

Two quotes carry the release. Yun on demand: "Mortgage rates and home sales move in opposite directions, so it's not surprising to see a mild dip in home buying activity due to high mortgage rates. Still, home prices are rising, and existing home sales are actually up 1.6 percent year-to-date through the first eight months of the year." Note that the year-to-date figure has itself decelerated — it was 2.4 percent through July.

Yun on supply: "The number of months it would take to exhaust the total inventory at the current sales pace has grown to 4.9 months' supply — its highest level in over ten years. The ample supply of homes for sale on the market is giving homebuyers better opportunities to negotiate."

Impact on USD

• Mixed, lean bearish — an exactly in-line headline with a third consecutive monthly decline, a fourteen-month low in volume, and supply at a seven-year high is the clearest evidence yet that a 6.67 percent mortgage is transmitting.
• Housing is the fastest channel policy runs through, so this is the growth-side argument for the doves the day before consumer prices.
• Against it: the median price is still up 1.6 percent and this is the 38th straight positive month, so nothing here forces a disinflation conclusion on shelter.
• The rate itself cuts the other way. Mortgages rose to 6.67 percent in August because the curve is pricing hikes, and that pricing has not been challenged by any data this week.
• Small on impact. This release matched consensus to the decimal and lands at 10:00am ET on a morning already owned by producer prices.

Impact on US Indices (ES / NQ / YM)

• Mixed, lean bearish for housing-linked equity, close to neutral for the broad index.
• Builders take the worst of it: existing-home supply at 4.9 months against their own 9.6, and the median new home at $393,800 in July now sitting roughly $35,300 below the median existing home. Their pricing advantage was scarcity of resale stock, and that scarcity just posted a seven-year high.
• Brokerages and title take a volume hit — 3.98 million transactions is the lowest run rate in fourteen months and the third straight monthly decline.
• Regional banks and mortgage originators see the same volume story, but distressed sales at 2 percent, unchanged on the year, mean no credit impairment behind it.
• The offset for retail and building products is the buyer mix: first-time buyers at 30 percent and rising is the demographic that spends on the house after closing.

Impact on Gold

• Mixed, lean bullish — a fourteen-month low in the volume of the most rate-sensitive sector strengthens the growth-slowdown case that gold trades on.
• The transmission is real yields, and a housing market visibly cracking under 6.67 percent mortgages is the argument that policy is already restrictive enough.
• Against it, this is also a disinflation print for the largest asset most households own — the median rose 1.6 percent against 3.7 percent headline inflation.
• The durable support is the same one this feed has flagged all fortnight: producer prices up 5.4 percent, wages up 3.1 percent, and now the family home losing real value too.

What To Watch

• Consumer prices — Friday, 11 September, 8:30am ET. Shelter is roughly a third of the index and is measured by owners' equivalent rent, not by this median, so the two can and do diverge. It shares the morning with preliminary September Michigan sentiment.
• FOMC decision and dot plot — Tuesday and Wednesday, 15-16 September. Three dissents for a hike in July, and a housing market that has now declined three months running under mortgage rates that went up while the Fed stood still.
• August pending home sales — Thursday, 17 September, 10:00am ET. Pending sales lead closings by roughly one to two months, so this is the first read on whether the third decline becomes a fourth.
• Whether the West goes further negative. A 0.2 percent decline is a rounding error, but it is the most expensive region, FHFA's Pacific division was already barely positive, and it is where affordability improved the most.
• The investor share. Down from 21 to 15 percent in twelve months. If that keeps falling, the marginal bid under the price streak keeps thinning.
• Next existing home sales — Tuesday, 13 October, 10:00am ET, covering September.

TLDR

NAR Existing Home Sales, August 2026 (released 10 September, 10:00am ET):

• Sales 3.98 million annual rate against a 3.98 million consensus — exactly in line, down 2.0 percent on the month and 1.2 percent on the year
• The first print below 4.0 million since June 2025, and the third consecutive monthly decline after 4.09 and 4.06 million
• Homes for sale 1.62 million — the first time above 1.6 million since November 2019, up 5.9 percent on the year
• 4.9 months' supply, from 4.6 in July and 4.6 a year ago — "its highest level in over ten years," per Yun
• Median price $429,100, up 1.6 percent — the 38th consecutive positive month, but decelerating from 2.0 percent
• That 1.6 percent trails the 3.1 percent wages rose and the 3.7 percent headline inflation rate — real house prices are falling
• The West median fell 0.2 percent, the only region negative, and it is the most expensive at $619,100
• The Northeast led on price at up 4.3 percent but had the worst monthly sales drop, down 4.0 percent
• The South was the only region flat year over year on sales, with the weakest price growth at up 0.7 percent
• Investors 15 percent of sales, down from 21 percent a year ago; first-time buyers 30 percent, up from 28
• The 30-year mortgage rose to 6.67 percent from 6.54 in July and 6.59 a year ago — affordability improved anyway, index 104.7 against 101.2
• Distressed sales 2 percent, unchanged, and days on market 31 against 31 a year ago — this is a listing build, not a forced-selling build
• New homes carried 9.6 months' supply in July at a $393,800 median, roughly $35,300 below the existing-home median

The headline matched to the decimal and the release still changed something. Sales broke below four million for the first time in fourteen months on a third straight monthly decline, and the supply of homes for sale hit its highest level since November 2019 — 4.9 months, which the NAR's own chief economist calls a ten-year high. Prices are technically still rising for a 38th consecutive month, at 1.6 percent, which is half the rate wages grew and well under half the rate consumer prices grew, so the family home is now losing real value alongside everything else this feed has priced this fortnight. Investors have gone from 21 percent of buyers to 15 in a year and first-time buyers have taken their place, which is what a market does when it stops paying you to own it and starts paying you to live in it. Nothing here is distressed — 2 percent of sales, unchanged, and homes still clearing in 31 days. Consumer prices tomorrow at 8:30am ET; the FOMC decides on 16 September; pending home sales on 17 September say whether the third decline becomes a fourth.

_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._