Crude Oil Inventories -0.4M (vs -1.27M Est) — But Total Petroleum Built 6.3 Million

Fundamentals · 2026-09-10

Commercial crude fell 391,000 barrels to 424.1 million against a 1.27 million draw expected — a bearish miss, and 0.09% of the stock; but total commercial petroleum inventories rose 6.3 million barrels, because refineries ran at 97.8% utilization into demand that is down 3.7% year over year; gasoline +1.3 million and now 5% below the five-year average, distillate +2.1 million but still 13% below, propane +3.1 million and 27% above; the national crude draw is two offsetting regional moves — Gulf Coast +2.4, West Coast -2.7; Cushing fell 684,000 to 21.8 million, down 8.5% on the year; and the SPR shed another 1.2 million to 285.4, now down 119.9 million barrels, or 29.6%, in twelve months, leaving total crude including the reserve down 14.5% year over year.

What Is This?

• What it is: The EIA's Weekly Petroleum Status Report, covering the week ending 4 September — commercial crude inventories, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, refined product stocks, refinery runs and utilization, imports, exports and product supplied. It normally lands Wednesday at 10:30am ET; this week it moved to Thursday because of the federal closure on Monday 7 September. Commercial crude is the number the calendar prints and the tape reacts to; it is one line out of dozens.
• Why it matters: Energy is doing most of the inflation work in this economy. This morning's producer price report put diesel up 24.1% in a single month, the largest single contributor to the entire headline, with final demand energy up 24.4% over twelve months. This release is where you find out whether that is a supply problem, and the answer is in the distillate line rather than the crude one.
• How to read it: Never stop at the headline. Crude is an input, so a draw can simply mean refiners converted it into products, and the honest measure is total commercial petroleum inventories, which nets crude against everything made from it. Then read the three product stocks against their five-year averages, because that is what prices at the pump. And read the SPR separately — commercial stocks can look stable while the national position does not.

Want the full explainer? Economic News Events, Explained breaks down this release and every other one we cover, in plain English.

Summary

Commercial crude inventories fell 391,000 barrels to 424.1 million in the week ending 4 September, against a consensus draw of 1.27 million. On the number that trades, that is a bearish miss of roughly 880,000 barrels — less crude left storage than expected. It is also 0.09% of the stock, which is a useful way of saying the headline carries almost no information.

EIA's own summary describes the level as matching the five-year average, and commercial crude is 0.1% below where it stood a year ago at 424.6 million. On its own terms the crude balance is about as unremarkable as it gets.

The rest of the release is not. Total commercial petroleum inventories — crude plus every refined product — rose 6.3 million barrels to 1,248.6 million. So the week that printed a crude draw was a week in which the petroleum complex built substantially. Gasoline added 1.3 million, distillate 2.1 million and propane 3.1 million; those three alone are 6.5 million barrels.

The mechanism is on the same page. Refineries ran 17.6 million barrels a day, up 91,000, at 97.8% of operable capacity. That is essentially the practical ceiling — refiners cannot run much harder than that for long. Gasoline output averaged 9.3 million b/d and distillate production rose to 5.3 million b/d.

And they were running flat out into falling demand. Total product supplied over the past four weeks averaged 20.1 million b/d, down 3.7% year over year. Gasoline product supplied fell 1.4% to 8.8 million b/d, distillate 2.6% to 3.7 million, and jet fuel 2.3%. Maximum refining into shrinking consumption is precisely how a crude draw becomes a six-million-barrel product build, and it is a compression signal for refining margins before it is anything else.

Even the headline draw is not a national story. Regionally, the Gulf Coast built 2.4 million barrels while the West Coast drew 2.7 million and Alaska in-transit fell 0.8 million. The Midwest and East Coast were both marginally lower. The national figure of minus 0.4 million is two large moves in opposite directions cancelling, not a country-wide trend.

Cushing is the line the aggregators got wrong. The NYMEX delivery hub fell 684,000 barrels to 21.8 million, not the 300,000 reported by at least one wire. It is down 8.5% from a year ago and 11.6% below two years ago. Cushing is the physical settlement point for the futures contract, so a thinning hub tightens the front of the curve regardless of what the national number says.

Now the two product lines that actually set prices, and they disagree. Gasoline stocks rose 1.3 million to 206.9 million and sit 5% below the five-year average, an improvement from 6% a week ago, though still 5.9% below last year. Distillate rose 2.1 million to 106.3 million and remains 13% below the five-year average, having improved from 14%, and is 11.9% below last year. Ultra-low-sulfur diesel specifically — the 15 ppm and under grade, which is the road fuel — is 13.0% below last year at 96.4 million barrels.

Hold that against this morning. Producer prices put diesel up 24.1% in the month of August, responsible on BLS's own accounting for over a third of the rise in final demand goods and, by weight arithmetic, roughly half the entire 0.4% headline. Distillate inventories at a 13% deficit to their five-year average and a 13% deficit to last year are the supply side of that same fact. A 2.1 million barrel build does not fix a deficit that size; it makes it slightly less severe.

Propane is the mirror image and the only genuine surplus in the report: up 3.1 million barrels to 110.5 million, 13.1% above last year and 27% above the five-year average. Propane is a natural gas liquid, produced alongside the gas processing that today's storage report covered, and its surplus is the same story as gas — plenty of molecules coming out of the ground.

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is the number nobody trades and everybody should read. It fell another 1.244 million barrels this week to 285.4 million. Over twelve months it is down 119.9 million barrels, or 29.6%. Against two years ago it is down 24.9%. The reserve has shed close to a third of its contents in a year, through a conflict that began in February.

That reframes the comfortable headline. Commercial crude is flat on the year and at its five-year average. But total crude oil in the country, including the reserve, is 709.4 million barrels — down 14.5% from 829.9 million a year ago, a fall of 120.4 million barrels. Total stocks of everything including the SPR are down 9.0% year over year. Commercial inventories look normal; the national position does not, and the difference is entirely the reserve.

Supply is not the constraint. Domestic crude production ran 13.947 million b/d, up 85,000 on the week and 452,000 above a year ago, with the four-week average 3.2% higher than last year. Crude imports rose 53,000 b/d to 6.8 million, and the four-week average of 6.6 million is 2.3% above the year-ago level. The United States is pumping more oil than it was a year ago and importing more, and total crude in the country is still down 14.5% — because the reserve has been the source of the difference.

One last cross-reference. Jet fuel stocks rose slightly to 46.0 million and are 6.4% above last year, while jet fuel demand is 2.3% below it. Residual fuel fell 795,000. Together with the gasoline and distillate builds, the pattern is consistent across the barrel: products accumulating because consumption is falling faster than refiners are willing to slow down.

That demand picture is the fourth reading of the same thing this desk has had today. Existing home sales at a fourteen-month low, seven consumer-facing wholesale categories shipping less than a year ago in real terms, wholesale sales growth of 13.0% that is mostly price, and now petroleum product supplied down 3.7% year over year. Volumes are falling across the consumer economy while dollar figures rise.

The Internals

The headline against consensus, and what it is worth:

Measure · This week · Consensus · Result

Commercial crude inventories · Down 391,000 barrels · Down 1.27 million · Bearish miss of about 880,000

Commercial crude level · 424.1 million barrels · Not forecast · Matching the five-year average, per EIA

The draw as a share of the stock · 0.09% · Not applicable · Statistical noise

Total commercial petroleum inventories · Up 6.3 million barrels · Not forecast · The number the headline hides

Total stocks including the SPR · Up 5.1 million barrels · Not forecast · Down 9.0% year over year

Crude, in every form the report publishes:

Series · 4 September · 28 August · Week change · Year ago · Year change

Total crude including the SPR · 709.4 million · 711.1 million · Down 1.6 million · 829.9 million · Down 14.5%

Commercial crude, excluding the SPR · 424.1 million · 424.5 million · Down 0.4 million · 424.6 million · Down 0.1%

Strategic Petroleum Reserve · 285.4 million · 286.6 million · Down 1.2 million · 405.2 million · Down 29.6%

Cushing, Oklahoma · 21.8 million · 22.5 million · Down 0.7 million · 23.9 million · Down 8.5%

Refined products, with the five-year comparison that decides price:

Product · 4 September · Week change · Versus the five-year average · Versus a year ago

Total motor gasoline · 206.9 million · Up 1.3 million · 5% below · Down 5.9%

Distillate fuel oil · 106.3 million · Up 2.1 million · 13% below · Down 11.9%

Distillate, 15 ppm and under · 96.4 million · Up 2.2 million · Not published separately · Down 13.0%

Kerosene-type jet fuel · 46.0 million · Up 0.2 million · Not published separately · Up 6.4%

Propane and propylene · 110.5 million · Up 3.1 million · 27% above · Up 13.1%

Residual fuel oil · 22.1 million · Down 0.8 million · Not published separately · Up 4.0%

Total commercial petroleum · 1,248.6 million · Up 6.3 million · Not published separately · Down 2.5%

Refining and supply, which is the mechanism behind the product build:

Measure · This week · Week ago · Change · Year ago or four-week comparison

Crude input to refineries · 17.6 million b/d · 17.5 million b/d · Up 91,000 b/d · Four-week average 17.5 million

Refinery utilization · 97.8% · Not published in summary · Near the practical ceiling · Not applicable

Gasoline output · 9.3 million b/d · Not published in summary · Not applicable · Not applicable

Distillate production · 5.3 million b/d · Not published in summary · Increased · Not applicable

Domestic crude production · 13.947 million b/d · 13.862 million b/d · Up 85,000 b/d · Up 452,000 on the year

Crude imports · 6.8 million b/d · 6.8 million b/d · Up 53,000 b/d · Four-week average 2.3% above

Demand, on the four-week average, which is the part that explains everything else:

Product supplied · Four-week average · Year-over-year change

Total products · 20.1 million b/d · Down 3.7%

Motor gasoline · 8.8 million b/d · Down 1.4%

Distillate fuel · 3.7 million b/d · Down 2.6%

Jet fuel · Not published in summary · Down 2.3%

Where The Barrels Are

Commercial crude by region. The national figure of minus 0.4 million is two large offsetting moves:

Region · 4 September · Week change · Year-over-year

Gulf Coast, PADD 3 · 247.5 million · Up 2.4 million · Up 1.1%

Midwest, PADD 2 · 100.1 million · Down 0.4 million · Down 3.9%

West Coast, PADD 5 · 45.0 million · Down 2.7 million · Down 2.0%

Rocky Mountain, PADD 4 · 23.1 million · Up 0.4 million · Up 2.4%

Cushing, Oklahoma · 21.8 million · Down 0.7 million · Down 8.5%

East Coast, PADD 1 · 8.4 million · Down 0.1 million · Up 16.8%

Alaska in transit · 2.4 million · Down 0.8 million · Down 18.7%

National commercial total · 424.1 million · Down 0.4 million · Down 0.1%

The reserve, over three years, because one week tells you nothing about it:

Measure · Level · Change · Change %

SPR, 4 September 2026 · 285.4 million · Down 1.2 million on the week · Down 0.4%

SPR versus 5 September 2025 · 405.2 million a year ago · Down 119.9 million · Down 29.6%

SPR versus 6 September 2024 · 380.0 million two years ago · Down 94.6 million · Down 24.9%

Total crude including the SPR, year-over-year · 709.4 million now · Down 120.4 million · Down 14.5%

Commercial crude alone, year-over-year · 424.1 million now · Down 0.6 million · Down 0.1%

Which is to say: the entire twelve-month decline in the nation's crude oil is the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and commercial inventories have not moved.

Products ranked by how far they sit from their five-year benchmark:

Rank · Product · Versus the five-year average · Read

1 · Propane and propylene · 27% above · A genuine surplus, tied to gas processing

2 · Commercial crude oil · Matching the average · Neutral, per EIA's own wording

3 · Motor gasoline · 5% below · A modest deficit, improved from 6%

4 · Distillate fuel oil · 13% below · The binding constraint, improved from 14%

Impact on Crude (CL)

• Mixed, lean bearish — the headline missed by roughly 880,000 barrels on the draw, and the complex as a whole built 6.3 million barrels rather than drawing.
• Demand is the bearish core: total product supplied down 3.7% year over year, gasoline down 1.4%, distillate down 2.6%, jet down 2.3%.
• Supply is not tight either — domestic production 13.947 million b/d, up 452,000 on the year, with imports up 2.3% on the four-week average.
• Against all of that: Cushing down 684,000 and 8.5% below last year tightens the delivery point, and distillate at 13% under its five-year average is a real deficit that a 2.1 million barrel build does not close.
• The structural bid is the reserve. The SPR is down 29.6% in twelve months and still falling, which removes the buffer that has capped every supply scare since 2022.

Impact on USD

• Slight bullish — marginal, and entirely through the inflation channel rather than anything direct.
• Diesel up 24.1% in a month in this morning's producer report with distillate stocks 13% under their five-year average is a persistent, supply-side inflation input the Fed cannot dismiss as transitory.
• Against it, a 6.3 million barrel build in total petroleum and demand down 3.7% year over year is disinflationary at the margin.
• No trade in it. A weekly inventory number has not moved the dollar in years and will not five days before an FOMC.

Impact on US Indices (ES / NQ / YM)

• Mixed, lean bearish — the demand signal is the important part, and it is negative.
• Refiners face margin compression: running at 97.8% utilization into product builds and falling consumption is how crack spreads narrow, and gasoline, distillate and propane all built this week.
• The broad read is a consumer using less of everything — the fourth dataset today after existing home sales at a fourteen-month low, seven wholesale consumer categories in real decline, and wholesale sales growth that is mostly price.
• Airlines get a mild offset: jet fuel stocks up 6.4% on the year with demand down 2.3% points to cheaper fuel, though the demand line is the problem.
• Producers are not the constraint — output at 13.947 million b/d and up 452,000 on the year is a supply-side story that caps upside for the exploration complex.

Impact on Gold

• Slight bullish — the SPR down 29.6% in a year is an energy-security argument as much as an inflation one.
• Total crude in the country is down 14.5% year over year even with commercial stocks flat, which is the kind of buffer erosion that raises the tail risk in any supply shock.
• Against it, this week's data is disinflationary on its face: a 6.3 million barrel product build and demand down 3.7%.
• Forward conditional: if distillate stays 13% under its five-year average through the heating season, the diesel move in this morning's producer report is not a one-month event.

What To Watch

• Consumer prices — Friday, 11 September, 8:30am ET. Energy is a direct component, and this release says the pressure sits in distillate rather than gasoline.
• FOMC decision and dot plot — Tuesday and Wednesday, 15-16 September. Three dissents for a hike in July, with energy still the largest identifiable driver of the inflation being argued about.
• Next petroleum status report — Wednesday, 16 September, 10:30am ET, back in its normal slot after this week's holiday shift, and landing on FOMC decision day.
• Whether distillate closes the gap. It has gone from 14% to 13% below the five-year average in a week. Heating season starts in about six weeks and it is entering that season in a double-digit deficit.
• The SPR, every week. Down 1.2 million this week and 119.9 million on the year. There is no announced floor, and the reserve is the difference between a comfortable commercial number and a national one.
• Refinery utilization against 97.8%. Runs this high are not sustainable through autumn maintenance. When they fall, the product builds stop and the crude draws start.

TLDR

EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, week ending 4 September 2026 (released Thursday 10 September, delayed by the 7 September federal holiday):

• Commercial crude down 391,000 barrels to 424.1 million against a 1.27 million draw expected — a bearish miss, and 0.09% of the stock
• EIA calls the level matching the five-year average; commercial crude is 0.1% below a year ago
• But total commercial petroleum inventories rose 6.3 million barrels — gasoline +1.3, distillate +2.1, propane +3.1
• Refineries ran at 97.8% utilization, 17.6 million b/d, up 91,000 — near the practical ceiling
• Demand is falling: total product supplied down 3.7% year over year on the four-week average; gasoline down 1.4%, distillate down 2.6%, jet down 2.3%
• Maximum refining into falling demand is how a crude draw becomes a six-million-barrel product build
• The national draw is two offsetting regional moves — Gulf Coast +2.4 million, West Coast -2.7 million
• Cushing fell 684,000 to 21.8 million, down 8.5% on the year — not the 300,000 some wires reported
• Gasoline 5% below the five-year average, improved from 6%; distillate 13% below, improved from 14%
• Ultra-low-sulfur diesel is 13.0% below last year — the supply side of this morning's 24.1% monthly jump in diesel prices
• Propane is 27% above the five-year average and 13.1% above last year — the only genuine surplus
• The SPR fell another 1.2 million to 285.4 million, down 119.9 million or 29.6% in twelve months and 24.9% in two years
• Total crude including the reserve is down 14.5% year over year while commercial crude is flat — the entire national decline is the SPR
• Domestic production 13.947 million b/d, up 452,000 on the year; imports up 2.3% on the four-week average

The headline was a bearish miss and the least informative number in the release. Commercial crude fell 391,000 barrels against a 1.27 million forecast, which is 0.09% of the stock, and the same week the whole petroleum complex built 6.3 million barrels. The mechanism is on the page: refineries ran at 97.8% of capacity into demand that is down 3.7% year over year, and maximum production into falling consumption fills product tanks. Two things underneath deserve carrying. Distillate is still 13% under its five-year average and ultra-low-sulfur diesel 13% under last year, which is the supply side of the 24.1% monthly diesel move that produced half of this morning's producer price headline. And the Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell another 1.2 million barrels to 285.4, down 29.6% in twelve months — commercial crude is flat on the year, but total crude in the country is down 14.5%, and the entire difference is the reserve. Consumer prices tomorrow at 8:30am ET; the FOMC decides 16 September, the same morning the next inventory report lands.

_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._