Consumer Confidence Slips to 89.4 — Present Situation Jumps 6.8, Expectations Sink to 68.2

Fundamentals · 2026-08-25

Consumer Confidence Index 89.4 in August, down 0.8 from a downwardly revised 90.2 in July and a second consecutive monthly decline; Present Situation Index +6.8 to 121.2, reversing three months of decline; Expectations Index -5.8 to 68.2, deeper below the 80 recession-signal threshold and now 53.0 points below Present Situation; labor differential +7.5, up 4.8 points, with jobs plentiful 27.0 percent against jobs hard to get 19.5 percent; 12-month price expectations slightly more elevated; 61.3 percent expect higher interest rates, down from 62 percent; survey cutoff August 16; next release September 29.

What Is This?

• What it is: The Conference Board's monthly survey of US household attitudes, published at 10am ET on the last Tuesday of every month and benchmarked to 1985=100. It splits into two sub-indexes: the Present Situation Index, covering current business and labor market conditions, and the Expectations Index, covering the six months ahead. August's preliminary results have a cutoff of August 16.
• Why it matters: Consumer expectations is one of the ten components of the Leading Economic Index, and when the LEI's six-month growth rate turned positive last Thursday for the first time in over four years, consumer expectations was the single named drag holding it back. This release is that drag measured directly — and in August it got worse, not better.
• How to read it: The headline is a blend and it hides more than it shows. The two sub-indexes routinely move in opposite directions, and which one is moving tells you what kind of month it was. The Conference Board also treats an Expectations reading below 80 as a level that "often signals a recession ahead," so 68.2 is a number to read against that line rather than against last month.

Want the full explainer? Economic News Events, Explained breaks down this release and every other one we cover, in plain English.

Summary

The headline Consumer Confidence Index fell 0.8 points to 89.4 in August, from a downwardly revised 90.2 in July — the second consecutive monthly decline, and on the face of it a non-event. Note the revision first: July was originally published at 90.8 and has been marked down to 90.2, so the starting point was worse than reported at the time.

Underneath that quiet headline the two components moved 12.6 points apart. The Present Situation Index rose 6.8 points to 121.2, reversing three straight months of decline. The Expectations Index fell 5.8 points to 68.2. Consumers upgraded their view of right now and downgraded their view of the next six months, simultaneously and sharply, and the two cancelled out into a 0.8-point headline.

"Consumer confidence moderated slightly in August for a second consecutive month," said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. "The Expectations Index slipped further into negative territory, which was offset by a moderate rise in the Present Situation Index after declining in the past three months. Consumer appraisals of current business conditions were mildly positive. Perceptions of the current labor market improved, reversing three months of moderate decline. Looking ahead, consumers were more pessimistic about business conditions and the labor market over the next six months. Expectations for household incomes moderated but remained optimistic overall."

The labor detail is the most useful part, and it lines up precisely with the hard data. The labor differential — the share saying jobs are plentiful minus the share saying jobs are hard to get — rose 4.8 points to +7.5, with 27.0 percent calling jobs plentiful against 19.5 percent calling them hard to get. That is consumers describing a labor market where you do not lose your job, which is exactly what initial claims at 206,000 and an insured unemployment rate of 1.2 percent describe. But looking six months out, consumers turned more pessimistic about the labor market — and that is what ADP's hiring pace of roughly 51,000 private jobs a month describes. Households have correctly identified both halves of low-fire, low-hire, and they are pricing the second half into their outlook.

The gap between the two sub-indexes is now 53.0 points, Present Situation at 121.2 against Expectations at 68.2. That is the hard-versus-soft divergence expressed inside a single survey rather than across two, and it removes the usual objection that sentiment surveys and activity data are simply measuring different populations. The same households, in the same questionnaire, rate today well and tomorrow badly.

On prices, the survey moved the wrong way for the Fed. Average and median 12-month price expectations were "slightly more elevated in August," which matters at a moment when the committee is holding at 3.50-3.75 percent with three members dissenting for a hike. Consumers themselves expect tighter policy: 61.3 percent anticipated higher interest rates over the next twelve months, down modestly from 62 percent in July. And the write-in responses — the unprompted concerns respondents volunteer — show rising mentions of prices, oil and gas, food and groceries, war and conflict, trade, and jobs. Cost of living dominates that list, which is consistent with the Conference Board's own framing in last week's LEI release that "the higher cost of living may reduce consumer spending, especially by lower- and middle-income households."

Buying plans were mixed rather than collapsing. Auto purchasing expectations remained strong on a six-month moving average basis, homebuying expectations declined slightly while holding an upward trend, and furniture and smartphones led intended durable-goods purchases. Consumers still expected higher stock prices a year from now. So this is not a household sector battening down — it is one that feels secure today, doubts the next six months, and is buying cars anyway.

The forward implication is the one worth carrying. Consumer expectations was the lone drag on a Leading Economic Index that just posted its first positive six-month growth rate in over four years. That drag deepened by 5.8 points in August. Everything else in the LEI would have to keep improving at the same pace merely to hold the index flat next month.

The Internals

Headline and components, August versus July:

Index · July · August · Change · Read

Consumer Confidence Index · 90.2 revised · 89.4 · -0.8 · Second consecutive decline

Present Situation Index · 114.4 implied · 121.2 · +6.8 · Reverses three months of decline

Expectations Index · 74.0 implied · 68.2 · -5.8 · Deeper below the 80 threshold

Gap, Present minus Expectations · not stated · 53.0 points · not stated · Today rated well, tomorrow badly

August levels and the monthly changes are as published by the Conference Board. The July sub-index levels marked "implied" are our arithmetic from the stated August levels and changes, not figures the release prints directly.

The Expectations Index against the Conference Board's own recession line:

Measure · Value

Expectations Index, August · 68.2

Conference Board recession-signal threshold · 80

Distance below the threshold · 11.8 points

Change on the month · -5.8 points

Labor market perceptions:

Measure · Value · Change · Read

Labor differential · +7.5 points · +4.8 · Reverses three months of decline

Jobs plentiful · 27.0 percent · n/a · Consumers feel secure in post

Jobs hard to get · 19.5 percent · n/a · Finding work is the harder half

Labor market, six months ahead · More pessimistic · n/a · The forward view deteriorated

Prices, rates and markets:

Measure · August · July · Read

Average 12-month price expectations · Slightly more elevated · n/a · Wrong direction for the Fed

Share expecting higher interest rates · 61.3 percent · 62 percent · Consumers still expect tightening

Share expecting higher stock prices · Majority still positive · n/a · Market optimism intact

The July revision:

Series · Originally reported · Revised to · Revision

Consumer Confidence Index, July · 90.8 · 90.2 · -0.6

What Households Actually Said

Write-in responses — the concerns respondents volunteer unprompted — showed rising mentions across five themes in August:

Theme · Direction

Prices, oil and gas · Rising mentions

War and conflict · Rising mentions

Food and groceries · Rising mentions

Trade · Rising mentions

Jobs · Rising mentions

Three of those five are cost-of-living items. That is the mechanism behind an Expectations Index at 68.2 while the Present Situation sits at 121.2 — households are not reporting hardship today, they are reporting that they expect prices to keep eating their income. The appearance of jobs as a rising unprompted concern is new and worth tracking, because it corroborates the forward pessimism on the labor market rather than the improved present-day differential.

Buying intentions, six-month basis:

Category · Direction

Autos · Remained strong on the six-month moving average

Homes · Declined slightly, upward trend intact

Top durable goods intentions · Furniture and smartphones

Homebuying intentions softening slightly sits alongside this morning's FHFA data showing house prices flat in June — the demand side and the price side telling a consistent story about a housing market that has stopped moving.

Impact on USD

• Mixed, lean bullish — improved present conditions and more elevated price expectations both cut the Fed's way, against a headline that barely moved.
• The labor differential rising 4.8 points to +7.5 corroborates claims at 206,000 and undercuts the labor-deterioration case.
• Twelve-month price expectations edging higher is the detail that matters most to a committee with three members dissenting for a hike.
• Offsetting: an Expectations Index at 68.2 and falling is a forward demand signal the doves will point at.
• Low-impact release in isolation — it moves the dollar by confirming or contradicting the hard data, not on its own.

Impact on US Indices (ES / NQ / YM)

• Mixed, lean bearish — Expectations at 68.2 and deteriorating is a warning about forward consumption, which is roughly two-thirds of GDP.
• Consumer discretionary carries the exposure, particularly names skewed to lower and middle-income households the Conference Board explicitly flagged.
• Rising unprompted concerns about food, groceries and fuel point to staples-over-discretionary rotation rather than a broad risk-off.
• Offsetting: auto buying plans held strong and consumers still expect higher stock prices a year out, so this is caution, not capitulation.
• The forward read for the September LEI is negative — consumer expectations was already its lone drag and just got 5.8 points worse.

Impact on Gold

• Slight bullish — more elevated 12-month price expectations feed the sticky-inflation case directly.
• An Expectations Index nearly 12 points below the Conference Board's own recession-signal threshold supports the hedge, however slowly.
• Rising write-in concern about war and conflict is the geopolitical-premium channel showing up in household attitudes.
• Offsetting: the present-situation strength and improved labor differential argue against near-term easing.
• Conditional: August CPI on September 11 remains the release that actually sets the level.

What To Watch

• August CPI — Friday, September 11. Households just said they expect prices to be more elevated; the print either validates or dismisses that.
• FOMC decision and dot plot — September 15-16. Consumer price expectations drifting up is a talking point for the three hike dissenters.
• Next LEI — Friday, September 18. Consumer expectations was the lone drag on a leading index that just turned positive; this month's 5.8-point fall feeds directly into it.
• Next Consumer Confidence — Tuesday, September 29. Watch whether the Expectations Index keeps sliding or the present-situation strength pulls it back. Same day as the next FHFA house price release.
• The 53-point gap between the sub-indexes. Historically these converge. Which one moves to close it is the question that decides whether the soft data was right or the hard data was.

TLDR

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (August 2026, released August 25):

• Headline: 89.4 (from a downwardly revised 90.2) — second consecutive monthly decline
• July revised down 0.6, from 90.8 as originally reported to 90.2
• Present Situation Index: 121.2, up 6.8 — reverses three months of decline
• Expectations Index: 68.2, down 5.8 — deeper below the 80 recession-signal threshold
• Gap between the sub-indexes: 53.0 points, today rated well and tomorrow badly
• Labor differential: +7.5, up 4.8 points; jobs plentiful 27.0 percent, hard to get 19.5 percent
• Six-month labor market view: more pessimistic, even as the present-day view improved
• Twelve-month price expectations: slightly more elevated than July
• Higher interest rates expected by 61.3 percent, down from 62 percent
• Rising unprompted concerns: prices and fuel, war, food, trade, and now jobs
• Survey cutoff August 16; next release September 29

The 0.8-point headline is the least informative number in this release — the components moved 12.6 points apart, with present conditions jumping 6.8 and expectations falling 5.8 to 68.2. The same households rate today at 121.2 and the next six months at 68.2, which is the hard-versus-soft divergence inside a single questionnaire rather than across two datasets. They have it right on both counts: firing is low, hiring is weak at roughly 51,000 private jobs a month, and the cost of living dominates their unprompted concerns. Watch August CPI on September 11, the dot plot on September 15-16, and the September 18 LEI, where these expectations are already the lone drag and just got worse.

_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._