PPI cools too. S&P tops 7,800
Rundown · 2026-08-14
Back-to-back cool inflation: a day after a tame CPI, July PPI came in flat (0.0% MoM, +4.7% YoY vs 4.9% est), pushing the S&P to a record 7,798.99 (+0.65%) — its 27th of the year, topping 7,800 intraday first time. Nasdaq +0.81%; Sept-hike odds fell to ~34%. Small caps hit records too.
Market Performance
- S&P 500: 7,798.99 (+0.65%) — a record close, its 27th of 2026; intraday high 7,816.70
- Nasdaq: 26,803.03 (+0.81%) — led by Meta, Micron + Netflix; chips extended their rebound
- Dow: 53,839.99 (+0.13%) — +69.72 pts; lagged on a heavy Cisco drag
- Russell 2000: hit fresh records — small caps are +22.6% YTD, outpacing the S&P by ~9.5pts
- 2Y yield: ~4.15% (from ~4.2%) — the front end eased hard on the cooling-inflation read
- WTI crude: -2% to $81.25 — Brent -2% to $87.07 on falling-demand worries amid the Iran war
- VIX: ~14.6 — hovering near 2026 lows; JPMorgan + CFRA are flagging rising complacency
PPI Seals the Cool-Inflation Story
- Headline PPI: unchanged (0.0%) MoM — vs +0.2% est; the first flat reading since June 2025
- +4.7% YoY (below the 4.9% estimate, down from June); core +4.2% (a touch above the 4.1% forecast)
- Coming after Wednesday's in-line CPI, it's a back-to-back cool-inflation combo the market loved
- Sept-hike odds fell to ~34% (from ~55% a week ago) per CME FedWatch — a hold is now the base case
- Both reads still sit well above the Fed's 2% target; one more report lands before the Sept 16 FOMC
Records Broaden as Small Caps Lead
- The YTD scoreboard: Nasdaq +14.4%, S&P +13-14%, but Russell 2000 +22.6% — small caps are winning
- WDAY +18% on the Silver Lake buyout report — one of the biggest software deals ever, if it lands
- NFLX +5.4% after Bill Ackman disclosed a new stake; MU +4.2% extended the memory rebound
Notable Movers
- (WDAY) +18% — Reports emerged that PE firm Silver Lake is in talks to acquire the enterprise-software maker
- (SNDK) +14% — The memory chipmaker forecast an extremely bullish long-term outlook through 2030 at its Investor Day
- (CBRS) -12% — The AI chipmaker's Q2 revenue missed consensus despite growing 74% year-over-year
Private Dealmaking
- Accelerant (specialty insurance · Thoma Bravo) — $4B+
- Arize (AI observability · Dynatrace) — $915M
- BlackSea Technologies (autonomous maritime · AEVEX) — $650M
- TradeZero (online brokerage · eToro) — $231M
- Finn (car subscription · Germany) — $150M
- Aureka Biotech (drug-discovery models) — $100M
TLDR
- S&P +0.65% to a record 7,798.99 (27th of the year, topped 7,800); Nasdaq +0.81%; Dow +0.13%
- PPI flat (0.0% MoM), +4.7% YoY (below est) — a back-to-back cool-inflation combo with Wednesday's CPI
- Sept-hike odds fell to ~34% (from ~55% a week ago); 2Y eased to ~4.15%; a hold is now base case
- Russell 2000 hit records — small caps +22.6% YTD, outpacing the S&P by ~9.5 points
- WDAY +18% (Silver Lake buyout talks), SNDK +14% (bullish 2030 outlook); NFLX +5.4% (Ackman stake)
- CBRS -12% (revenue miss despite +74% growth); VIX near 2026 lows — JPM + CFRA flag complacency
The Bottom Line
Two cool inflation prints in two days sealed it: the September hike is off the table for now, and the S&P booked its 27th record of the year above 7,800. PPI coming in flat — the first since June 2025 — confirmed the CPI signal, and hike odds cratered to roughly one-third. The healthiest part isn't the record; it's the breadth: small caps are up 22.6% on the year and at their own highs, a rally leaning on more than a handful of megacaps. But the same names urging you not to miss it — JPMorgan, CFRA — flag complacency, with the VIX near 2026 lows. Inflation is still above target, and one more report stands between here and the Fed.
_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._