CPI comes in line. AI cloud rips

Rundown · 2026-08-13

Relief rally: July CPI matched expectations (3.4% headline, 2.5% core), removing the hot-print risk and nudging the Fed toward a hold — while blowout AI-cloud earnings powered Nasdaq +0.5% to a one-month high. S&P +0.26% near records; CRWV +19%, NBIS +12%. VIX hit a multi-month low.

Market Performance

• S&P 500: 7,748.50 (+0.26%) — hovered near record territory as the inflation tail-risk lifted
• Nasdaq: 26,588.49 (+0.54%) — led to a one-month high on the AI-cloud + chip rally
• Dow: 53,770.27 (-0.04%) — -21.58 pts; slipped fractionally, dragged by defensive names
• Russell 2000: +0.7% — small caps outperformed for a third straight session
• 10Y yield: ~4.69% — little changed; short-dated Treasuries outperformed on the hold read
• WTI crude: little changed (~$83) — the Hormuz standoff dragged into another day
• VIX: ~14.55 — a multi-month low; the in-line CPI drained the anxiety ahead of the print

CPI Lands In Line: The Hot-Print Risk Clears

• Headline CPI: +3.4% YoY (from 3.5% in June); core: +2.5% (from 2.6%) — both matched consensus
• Monthly: headline +0.1%, core +0.2% — a tame set that "narrowly nudges the Fed toward a hold"
• The bullish surprise: core CPI's 3-month annualized rate fell to 1.6% — first sub-2% since Dec 2025
• Shelter inflation rose a modest 0.1% for a second straight month — the disinflation engine held
• But core goods posted their biggest monthly gain since last September — early tariff pass-through

AI-Cloud Earnings Reaffirm the Boom

• CRWV +19% — Q2 revenue more than doubled to $2.58B, beating estimates as losses narrowed
• NBIS (Nebius) +12%, SMCI +9% — a wave of blowout neocloud results reaffirmed AI demand is real
• The prints directly countered the "circular financing" worry that dogged NVDA earlier in the week
• Retail sales Friday is next: control-group sales seen +0.4% after a hot 8% Q2 pace

Notable Movers

• (CRWV) +19% — Q2 revenue more than doubled to $2.58B, beating estimates on booming AI-cloud demand
• (CAVA) +14% — The Mediterranean fast-casual chain beat Q2 with strong same-store sales growth (+9%)
• (HD) -3% — Announced its CEO will take a temporary medical leave of absence

Private Dealmaking

• Neos (ETF provider · Goldman Sachs) — $2.3B
• Thrive Holdings (raise) — $2B+
• Aeroplan (25% stake · Air Canada→Blackstone) — $1.7B
• River AI (open-source AI) — $1.1B
• Form Energy (multi-day grid batteries) — $750M
• Resonant Sciences (defense · Joby) — $500M

TLDR

• S&P +0.26% to 7,748.50 (near records), Nasdaq +0.54% (one-month high), Dow -0.04%
• CPI in line: headline 3.4%, core 2.5% (both eased from June) — removed the hot-print risk
• Core CPI 3-mo annualized fell to 1.6% — first sub-2% since Dec 2025; shelter +0.1% again
• CRWV +19% (revenue doubled to $2.58B), NBIS +12%, SMCI +9% — AI-cloud earnings ripped
• 10Y ~4.69%, VIX at a multi-month low (~14.6); oil ~$83; Sept-hike odds <50%
• CAVA +14% (strong SSS), HD -3% (CEO medical leave); retail sales Friday next

The Bottom Line

The number the whole week hinged on came in exactly as hoped — and boring was bullish. July CPI matched at 3.4%, clearing the hot-print risk that could have revived the hike fear, and beneath the in-line headline sat a gift: core inflation's 3-month pace fell to 1.6%, its first sub-target read since December. That kept the Fed-on-hold path intact and let the AI trade do the rest — CoreWeave's revenue *doubled*, and neocloud beats answered the "circular financing" doubt with hard demand. Two clouds linger: core goods prices creeping up on tariff pass-through, and oil near $83 on the Hormuz standoff. But with the VIX at a multi-month low, the market got its relief.

_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._