Stocks Slip Again. CPI Day Arrives

Rundown · 2026-08-12

A third down day in four, all eyes on the inflation print: mega-cap tech led a quiet pullback as oil held near $83 (Iran vowing to keep Hormuz shut) — S&P -0.32%, Nasdaq -0.6%, Dow -184. Small caps bucked it again (+0.32%). 10Y eased to 4.69%, but the 30Y sits near 5.24%. CPI lands Wednesday.

Market Performance

• S&P 500: 7,728.20 (-0.32%) — a second modest pullback since last week's record
• Nasdaq: 26,445.45 (-0.60%) — the laggard as AI-capex jitters hit the tech-heavy index hardest
• Dow: 53,791.85 (-0.34%) — -184.13 pts; GOOGL, AAPL + AMZN all declined
• Russell 2000: 3,027.12 (+0.32%) — small caps bucked the trend for a second straight session
• Breadth negative + mega-cap-driven: industrials + small caps held up; Big Tech dragged
• 10Y yield: ~4.69% — eased ahead of CPI; but the 30Y stayed near 5.24% (near 20-year highs)
• WTI crude: ~$83 — settled higher as Iran vowed to keep Hormuz shut until its demands are met
• The US fired on a ship crossing the Gulf of Oman, enforcing its blockade — Brent neared $90

Stocks Consolidate as CPI Day Arrives

• Three down days in four — a textbook pause after the S&P's best week since April
• Big Tech led lower: Alphabet, Apple + Amazon all fell as AI-capex scrutiny weighed on sentiment
• Oil is the wildcard into CPI — a fresh crude spike is the one thing that could sour the print
• July CPI (Wed): headline seen easing to 3.4%, core to 2.5% (from 3.5% / 2.6% in June)
• PPI follows Thursday — back-to-back inflation reads ahead of the September Fed meeting

The Rate Debate Splits + Labor Softens Further

• Sept-hike odds sit near 50/50 — a soft CPI supports a hold; a hot one revives the hike case
• Cleveland Fed's Hammack warned it may take more than one hike to rein inflation back in
• ADP: private hiring slowed to ~8,250 jobs/week (4 weeks to July 25), down from ~11,000
• CoreWeave + Super Micro reported strong AI-demand outlooks after the bell — the buildout rolls on

Notable Movers

• (KKR) +7% — Nvidia named the PE megafund one of six Wall Street partners in a $500B AI-infra coalition
• (ONON) -20% — The Swiss running-shoe brand missed Q2 revenue estimates and trimmed its guidance
• (LIF) -25% — The family-safety app's Q2 GAAP EPS of $0.06 missed the $0.08 consensus

Private Dealmaking

• Moneris (fintech · Francisco Partners · Canada) — $1.5B
• Vaderis Therapeutics (rare vascular · Switzerland) — $152M
• Zenity (AI-agent security) — $125M
• Expedition Therapeutics (oral inflammatory/respiratory) — $115M
• Cylinder Health (Hinge Health) — $105M
• Epicrispr (epigenetic medicines) — $90M

TLDR

• S&P -0.32% to 7,728.20, Nasdaq -0.6%, Dow -184 — a third down day in four ahead of CPI
• Big Tech led lower (GOOGL, AAPL, AMZN); small caps +0.32% bucked it; breadth mega-cap-driven
• Oil ~$83 as Iran vowed to keep Hormuz shut; 10Y eased to 4.69%, but 30Y near 5.24%
• CPI Wednesday: headline seen 3.4%, core 2.5%; PPI Thursday; Sept-hike odds ~50/50
• KKR +7% as one of six partners in Nvidia's $500B AI coalition — the flip side of Monday's NVDA dip
• ONON -20% (revenue miss + cut guide), LIF -25% (EPS miss)

The Bottom Line

The market is holding its breath. A third down day in four — led by the same mega-cap tech that carried the rally — sets up Wednesday's CPI as the whole story. Economists see headline inflation easing to 3.4%, supporting the Fed-on-hold thesis behind this month's records. But oil near $83 with Iran vowing to keep Hormuz shut is the wildcard — a fresh spike could keep prices sticky and revive the hike fear the bond market never let go of (the 30Y still sits near a 20-year high). Soft jobs, firm inflation risk: Wednesday's 8:30 print breaks the tie.

_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._