Jobs shock. Records anyway.

Rundown · 2026-08-10

Bad news, good tape: payrolls FELL 23K (vs +80K est) — the first job loss since February — and the market cheered, reading it as a Fed on hold. S&P closed at a record 7,757.64 (+0.62%), Nasdaq +1.3%; Sept-hike odds collapsed to ~42%. 10Y eased to 4.64%; gold hit a 7-week high.

Market Performance

S&P 500: 7,757.64 (+0.62%) — a record close; cleared 7,750 for the first time
Nasdaq: 26,691 (+1.30%) — led as rate-sensitive growth caught a bid
Dow: 54,037 (+0.28%) — recovered most of Thursday's 464-point drop
Strong week: the S&P's best since April, up ~3.6%; the YTD gain grew to ~16.7%
Sector leaders: Industrials, Materials, Tech · Laggards: Comm Services, Energy (only 2 down)
10Y yield: ~4.64% — eased on the rate-cut repricing; gold +2.3% to $4,339 (7-week high)
WTI crude: ~$77 — edged down as Iran + Oman near a Strait of Hormuz agreement
Sept-hike odds collapsed to ~42% — from ~58% Thursday and 67% a week ago

The Jobs Shock: Bad News the Market Loved

Nonfarm payrolls FELL 23,000 in July — vs a +80K estimate; the first job loss since February
May + June were revised down a combined 103,000 — the labor picture was softer than thought
Wages cooled: average hourly earnings rose just 0.1% MoM (+3.2% YoY), both below consensus
Unemployment fell to 4.1% — but "for the wrong reason": the labor force shrank by 264,000
The market's read: soft jobs = no September hike, maybe a cut ahead = buy rate-sensitive growth

Earnings Stay Hot + A Contrarian Warning

TWLO +25% on record revenue; Atlassian +35% — AI-demand winners were richly rewarded
With 88% of the S&P reported, 86% are beating by an avg ~29% surprise — a blowout season
Q2 growth revised up to ~48% — more than double the 22% estimate at quarter-end
Energy leads the growth, then comm services + consumer disc; 10 of 11 sectors posting YoY gains
The caution flag: BofA's bull/bear indicator hit 9.7, its highest since 2021 — a contrarian sell signal

Notable Movers

(TWLO) +25% — Q2 revenue hit a record $1.50B, up 22% YoY, on strong AI-driven demand
(ABNB) +17% — Q2 revenue beat + the company raised its full-year 2026 revenue-growth outlook
(UAA) -5% — Q2 revenue missed consensus and the company forecast a steeper annual sales decline

Private Dealmaking

DoubleVerify (media measurement · Nielsen) — $2.15B
Firmus (AI infrastructure · Australia) — $2B
Lumilens (AI-infra connectivity) — $700M+
Whatnot (live-shopping · collectibles) — $545M
Olix (chip designer · UK) — $300M
Sonablate (therapeutic ultrasound) — $200M

TLDR

S&P +0.62% to a record 7,757.64; Nasdaq +1.3%; Dow +0.28%; best week since April (+3.6%)
Payrolls FELL 23K (vs +80K est) — first job loss since Feb; May+June revised down 103K
Unemployment 4.1% but the labor force shrank 264K (participation 61.4%, lowest since '21)
Sept-hike odds collapsed to ~42%; 10Y to 4.64%, gold +2.3% to a 7-week high $4,339
TWLO +25%, Atlassian +35%, ABNB +17% on earnings; 88% reported, 86% beating, growth ~48%
Wednesday's CPI is the next test; WTI ~$77 on Hormuz progress

The Bottom Line

The market got the number it wanted for the wrong reason. Payrolls contracted for the first time since February — genuine economic softening — yet the S&P hit a record because a shrinking labor market means the Fed's September hike is off the table. That's "bad news is good news" in its purest form, capping the S&P's best week since April. But two cracks show beneath: the unemployment drop came from 1.4M people leaving the workforce this year, not hiring, and BofA's sentiment gauge just hit its most bullish since 2021 — historically a moment to trim risk. Wednesday's CPI is the next test.

_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._