Records roll on. Palantir soars 30%
Rundown · 2026-08-05
Records again: blowout AI earnings (PLTR +30%, CAT +5.6%) plus a possible Hormuz deal "within 48 hours" (Bessent) cracked oil -5% and sent the S&P (7,736.52) + Dow (54,086) to fresh records. Nasdaq +2.6%; 10Y eased to ~4.62%; Sept-hike odds fell to 57%.
Market Performance
- S&P 500: 7,736.52 (+1.79%) — first record high in two months; topped its June peak
- Nasdaq: 26,584.99 (+2.59%) — Palantir-led; the tech comeback accelerated
- Dow: 54,085.88 (+1.71%) — +907.47 pts; closed above 54,000 for the first time ever
- Breadth strong: a 4th straight day of gains; CAT alone added ~280 pts to the Dow
- Sector leaders: Tech, Industrials (CAT), Software (PLTR) · broad participation
- 10Y yield: ~4.62% — eased as oil fell; Sept-hike odds dropped to 56.9% (from 67.2%)
- WTI crude: ~$76 (-5%) — Brent -5.3% to $79.36 (lowest since July 10) on Hormuz-deal hopes
AI Earnings Erase the Demand Fears
- PLTR +29.5% — its biggest daily gain since Feb 2024; raised its annual revenue forecast
- CEO Alex Karp called it an "otherworldly" quarter; the backlog hit $47.5B as AI losses narrowed
- CAT +5.6% — raised revenue-growth guidance; sales topped $20B for the first time
- The AI-data-center buildout is driving demand for Caterpillar's power-gen + construction gear
- After the close: SpaceX beat on revenue ($7.81B, +92%) but fell ~7% AH on capex; AMD -8% on mixed results
Oil Slides on Hormuz-Deal Hopes + The Jobs Test
- Bessent: a Strait of Hormuz deal could come "today or tomorrow" — Qatar cited active talks
- Oil's slide pulled yields lower and cut Sept-hike odds — a clean tailwind for equities
- JOLTS: job openings fell to 7.4M in June (down 178K) — still above the 7.1M unemployed
- Friday's July payrolls is the week's pivot — forecast +100K, unemployment steady at 4.2%
- Caution flag: Iran disputed that talks were scheduled — the de-escalation is still just hope
Notable Movers
- (PLTR) +29.5% — Its biggest daily gain since Feb 2024 after raising annual revenue guidance on an "otherworldly" quarter
- (CAT) +5.6% — Raised its revenue-growth outlook as sales topped $20B for the first time on AI-data-center demand
- (MCD) beat — McDonald's topped Q2 estimates, adding to the morning's strong earnings slate
Private Dealmaking
- Airtable (relational database · Bending Spoons) — $1.29B
- TotalEnergies EU renewables (50% · KKR) — $1.2B
- Valar Atomics (small nuclear reactors) — $1B
- BWX Technologies medical (Nordic Capital) — up to $800M
- AerFin (aerospace parts · Orix · UK) — $640M
- Mariana Minerals (mining tech) — $310M
TLDR
- S&P +1.79% to 7,736.52 (first record in 2 months); Dow +907 pts above 54,000; Nasdaq +2.59%
- PLTR +30% (raised guidance) + CAT +5.6% ($20B+ sales) drove an AI-earnings-led record run
- Oil -5% (~$76) on Bessent's "Hormuz deal within 48hrs"; 10Y ~4.62%; Sept-hike odds → 57%
- JOLTS openings 7.4M (down 178K, still > 7.1M unemployed); factory orders -0.3%
- After hours: SpaceX beat but fell ~7% on capex; AMD -8% — scrutiny shifting to AI cash burn
- Friday's NFP is the test (forecast +100K, 4.2%); Iran disputed that Hormuz talks were scheduled
The Bottom Line
The melt-up has legs — the S&P notched its first record in two months and the Dow cleared 54,000 for the first time, powered by exactly what the market doubted two weeks ago: AI earnings. Palantir's 30% moonshot and Caterpillar's $20B quarter proved demand is real, and a possible Hormuz deal cracked oil another 5%. But one strategist's line captures the risk: "not one ounce of skepticism among investors." Friday's jobs report and the unsigned Iran deal are the two things that could puncture it. Records are back — so is complacency.
_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._