Flash PMIs — Services 8-Mo High, Mfg 4-Mo Low, Selling Prices Near 4-Yr Peak

Fundamentals · 2026-07-24

Flash Manufacturing PMI 53.8 (June 53.9) — 4-month low but still 2nd-highest in 4 yrs — Flash Services PMI 53.6 (June 51.2) — 8-MONTH HIGH — Flash Composite 53.6 (from 51.9) — 8-mo high — Mfg Output 53.6 (from 56.2, 4-mo low) — Employment RETURNED TO GROWTH (1st hiring in 3 months) — Selling price inflation STEEPEST since Aug 2022 — Services input costs 14-month high — Supplier delivery times WORST since Aug 2022 (Hormuz shock) — GDP tracking Q3 2.0% vs Q2 1.2%

What Is This?

• What it is: S&P Global Flash PMI — advance estimate of monthly Manufacturing + Services activity from ~1,150 firms; 50 = expansion/contraction line; released ~1 week before final print.
• Why it matters: First real-time look at Q3 activity — services blowout + hiring rebound challenge "low-hire" narrative; but selling-price inflation near 4-yr peak vindicates Warsh's "imperfect measures" inflation stickiness thesis.

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Summary

Composite jumped to 53.6 (from 51.9) — an 8-month high — driven entirely by a Services surge to 53.6 (+2.4 from 51.2), the highest since November 2025. Manufacturing PMI edged down to 53.8 (from 53.9) — a 4-month low but still 2nd-highest in 4 years — with Mfg Output cooling harder to 53.6 (from 56.2) as prior stock-building faded. The bombshell: employment returned to growth for the first time in 3 months, directly contradicting yesterday's ADP Pulse 16.5K (4th weekly decline) and complicating the "low-fire, low-hire" thesis on the hiring side. But the sting is inflation: selling price inflation hit its STEEPEST rate since Aug 2022, services input costs are at a 14-month high, and Hormuz-driven supplier delivery delays are the worst since Aug 2022 — an 11-month streak of lengthening lead times. S&P Global's Chris Williamson flags GDP tracking 2.0% annualized in Q3 vs 1.2% Q2 signal, but warns the July bump was juiced by FIFA World Cup + USA 250 hospitality spend and stock-building — "may not be start of improving trend." Manufacturing optimism dropped to its LOWEST since October on tariffs, geopolitics. Warsh gets clean vindication: services activity blows past forecasts WHILE inflation reaccelerates — exactly the stagflation regime his "leaner meaner balance sheet" and "imperfect measures" framing targets.

Impact on USD

• Bullish — GDP tracking upgrade (Q3 2.0% vs Q2 1.2%) + selling-price inflation 4-yr peak = fewer Fed cuts priced.
• Services surge undermines dovish case; Warsh hawkish framework fully validated on inflation.
• USD bid across G10; DXY gets renewed impulse; undercuts ADP-driven dovish tilt.

Impact on US Indices (ES / NQ / YM)

• Mixed, lean bullish — activity surge = earnings tailwind, but 4-yr high selling-price inflation caps multiple expansion.
• Services (XLY, XLC, XLF) benefit; industrials (XLI) mixed on mfg cooling + Hormuz supply chain drag.
• NQ neutral — AI capex intact but higher real yields drag megacap duration.

Impact on Gold

• Mixed — inflation-hedge case reinforced by 4-yr price peak, but higher real yields on hawkish repricing headwind.
• Hormuz supply disruption + war premium remains structural floor.
• Watch $4,300 pivot; net setup neutral pending Fed reaction to sticky prices.

TLDR

S&P Global Flash PMIs (July, released July 24):

• Manufacturing PMI: 53.8 (June 53.9) — 4-month low but still elevated
• Services PMI: 53.6 (June 51.2) — 8-MONTH HIGH, +2.4 jump
• Composite PMI: 53.6 (June 51.9) — 8-month high
• Manufacturing Output: 53.6 (June 56.2) — 4-month low
• Employment: RETURNED TO GROWTH — 1st hiring in 3 months
• Selling price inflation: STEEPEST since Aug 2022 (4-yr peak)
• Services input costs: 14-month high
• Supplier delivery times: WORST since Aug 2022 (Hormuz shock, 11-mo streak)
• Mfg optimism: LOWEST since October (tariffs, geopolitics)
• GDP tracking: Q3 2.0% annualized vs Q2 1.2%
• Boosts: FIFA World Cup + USA 250 hospitality spend
• Next release: Final PMIs Aug 3 (mfg) / Aug 5 (services)

Services blowout + hiring rebound + 4-yr high selling-price inflation = clean Warsh vindication on stagflation regime. GDP tracking upgrade contradicts ADP labor collapse but Williamson warns bounce may be transitory (World Cup, stock-build fading). Bifurcation deepens: services surging, manufacturing cooling, inflation reaccelerating. Watch UMich Final July 25, Q2 GDP Advance July 30, Powell FOMC late July, NFP Aug 1.

_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._