Chips Lead. Tech Shrugs Off Iran.

Rundown · 2026-07-10

Nasdaq +1%+, S&P +0.8% as semis ripped (SOX ~+5% off its 50-day) — markets looked past fresh Hormuz strikes; MU +4% on $250B US pledge, META +4.7% on new AI model; jobless claims 215K firm.

Market Performance

• Nasdaq: +1%+ — led by semis + mega-cap tech; investors bet Iran won't escalate to full war
• S&P 500: +0.8% — 7 of 11 sectors green; IT +1.4% the standout
• Dow: modestly higher — but still ~-1% on the week; 4-week winning streak at risk
• Russell 2000: +1%+ — small caps joined the risk-on move
• Sector leaders: Tech (chips), Comm Services · Laggards: Consumer Staples -1.7%
• 10Y yield: ~4.55% — settled slightly lower; Gold +1.2% to $4,131.60
• WTI crude: -0.4% to ~$73.24 — finished lower on the day but +4%+ on the week
• Jobless claims 215K vs 218K est — lowest since May 23; labor stays firm
• Existing home sales -2.4% (June) vs +0.7% expected — housing wobbles on higher rates

Chips Rip: SOX ~+5% Off the 50-Day

• SOX/SOXX ~+5% — memory + AI names led the bounce off the 50-day MA
• MU +4%+ — pledged $250B+ in US investment; broader chip-sector optimism
• META +4.7% — released developer access to Muse Spark AI model (rivals Anthropic/OpenAI)
• SK Hynix pricing US ADR at $149 to raise ~$26.5B — trades Friday; demand 7x supply
• Rotation continued OUT of hyperscalers INTO semis; MAGS ETF -0.6% while SOXX +5%
• NY Fed's Williams: flagged AI-driven demand as his primary inflation concern

Iran Backdrop + Data: Firm Labor, Soft Housing

• Fresh overnight Hormuz strikes from both sides — markets bet it won't blossom into full war
• US began another round of Iran strikes ~15 min after Wednesday's close (CENTCOM)
• Oil finished lower despite the flare-up — supplies still recovering post-reopening
• Fed-hike odds: futures now price ~34 bps of hikes by year-end; Sept ~19 bps
• Warsh congressional testimony Tuesday — next week's marquee Fed event
• Q2 earnings ramp: PepsiCo kicked it off (mixed); big banks next week

Notable Movers

• (QIA) +12% — EQT + Advent (+ KKR) separately expressed takeover interest in the diagnostics firm
• (CBRS) +9% — Nvidia challenger announced a multibillion-dollar European expansion (France + Nordics)
• (PSKY) -4% — Delaying the Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition on regulatory + legal issues; states plan antitrust suit

Private Dealmaking

• Kraken Technology (maritime defense · UK) — $175M
• Oxylabs (data infrastructure · Lithuania) — $130M
• Venus Aerospace (hypersonic rocket engines) — $91M
• TJM (pharmacy automation) — $75M
• Ollama (open-model dev platform) — $65M
• Vendelux (B2B events marketing) — $50M

TLDR

• Nasdaq +1%+, S&P +0.8% on chip-led rally; Dow modestly up but ~-1% on week
• SOX ~+5% off the 50-day; MU +4% on $250B US pledge; META +4.7% on Muse Spark AI
• Markets looked past fresh overnight Iran/Hormuz strikes — bet against full-war escalation
• Jobless claims 215K (lowest since May 23); existing home sales -2.4% miss
• Gold +1.2% to $4,131.60; WTI -0.4% to ~$73.24 (but +4% on week); 10Y ~4.55%
• QIA +12% on PE takeover interest; CBRS +9% on Europe expansion; PSKY -4% on WBD delay

The Bottom Line

Chips did the heavy lifting again — but this time on offense. SOX +5% off its 50-day with MU's $250B US pledge and META's new AI model says the market is treating last week's chip washout as the buyable dip, not the top. The tell: stocks rallied *through* fresh Iran strikes because oil finished lower and claims stayed firm. The risk into next week is Warsh's congressional testimony Tuesday — if he confirms the hawkish minutes tilt, the rate math simmering under this rally finally bites.

_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._