Ceasefire Over. Dow Drops 577.

Rundown · 2026-07-09

Trump declared the Iran ceasefire "over" at the NATO summit + threatened fresh strikes — Dow -577 (-1.09%), oil +4.4% to $73.52; but Nasdaq +0.2% as chips rebounded (AVGO +5% on a $30B Apple deal, NVDA +3.65% on China H200). Hawkish Fed minutes added pressure.

The Tape

• Dow Jones 52,348.39 (-1.09%, -576.76 pts) — led lower; industrials and materials dragged
• Nasdaq 25,870.65 (+0.20%) — bucked the trend as semis rebounded (+2.23%)
• WTI Crude +4.37% to $73.52 · Brent +5.43% to $78.19 — still below the March peak
• Gold >$4,130 — safe-haven bid; 10Y yields higher on the hawkish minutes
• Sectors: 9 of 11 red — Industrials -3.41%, Materials -2.45%

Iran Ceasefire "Over"

• Trump at the NATO summit (Turkey): the interim deal "is over... they're scum"; said he won't negotiate.
• Threatened fresh strikes: "we'll probably hit them hard again tonight" after Tuesday's US strikes.
• Iran retaliated with reported attacks on military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain.
• IMF cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 3%; sees oil +32% on the year and global CPI drifting to 4.7%.
• Oil's move stayed contained — supplies recovered after the Strait of Hormuz reopened, cushioning the spike.

Chips Rebound + Hawkish Fed Minutes

• AVGO +5% — signed multi-year agreements with Apple through 2031, a $30B+ US chip deal ($1.5B earmarked for Fort Collins).
• NVDA +3.65% — China to allow limited H200 AI-chip purchases; PHLX Semiconductor +2.23%.
• Fed June minutes: a divided committee — several favored a June hike; 9 of 18 see a year-end increase.
• The minutes stressed inflation risk even after oil had fallen; Warsh's stripped-down statement noted.

CME FedWatch — Dec hike ~40%. Traders now price a likely December hike; the minutes plus the Iran oil spike stack hawkishly. Q2 bank earnings begin next week.

Movers

• PENG +25% — Penguin Solutions crushed Q3 estimates, raised full-year guidance, and issued a preliminary FY2027 outlook on AI-memory demand.
• AVGO +5% — Broadcom's multi-year Apple agreements through 2031, a $30B+ US chip deal.
• BBWI -6% — Bath & Body Works downgraded to Sell at Goldman Sachs ($19 target) on weakening brand engagement.

Private Dealmaking

• Pearl Health (Medicare health tech) — $110M
• EDX Markets (institutional crypto) — $76M
• Warp (payroll compliance) — $60M
• BIZAY (customized products · PT) — $55M
• CameraMatics (fleet safety · Ireland) — $53M
• Daloopa (source-linked data) — $47M

_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._