Chips Slide — Oil Spikes

Rundown · 2026-07-08

SOX -5.5% to a 4-week low as Samsung's 19x profit jump missed sky-high bars + DeepSeek's own AI chip report hit NVDA; Nasdaq -1.16%, Dow slipped below 53K; WTI +5% on renewed Hormuz attacks, 10Y to 4.55%.

Market Performance

• Dow: 52,925.15 (-0.25%) — pulled back below 53K after Monday's record; hit an intraday ATH first
• S&P 500: 7,503.85 (-0.45%) — chip drag; energy + defensives cushioned
• Nasdaq: 25,818.69 (-1.16%) — semis led the decline; AI-durability doubts resurfaced
• Russell 2000: early gains faded; still the YTD leader after the best H1 since 1991
• Sector leaders: Energy (oil spike), Healthcare, Staples · Laggards: Tech, Semis
• 10Y yield: 4.55% — rose on oil-driven inflation risk; DXY firmer
• WTI crude: +5% to ~$72 — Treasury revoking the Iran oil license + Hormuz tanker attacks
• Brent +5% to ~$76 — a naval coalition raised the Hormuz threat level to "severe"

Chip Rout: Samsung Miss + DeepSeek Chip Threat

• SOX -5.5% to a 4-week low — 2nd washout in 2 weeks; SMH -4.54%
• Samsung Q2 op profit +19x YoY but missed steep expectations — profit-taking cascaded
• DeepSeek developing its own AI chip (Reuters) — NVDA -1.8% on a reduced-dependence threat
• INTC -8.2%, MU -7.3% — the top 2 S&P 500 losers; KLA/MRVL/BRCM/AMD all red
• KOSPI ~-20% cumulative — now the overnight barometer for US chip fortunes
• Rotation intact: energy + healthcare + staples caught the flows out of semis

Oil Spikes on Renewed Hormuz Risk + Fed Minutes Ahead

• WTI +5% to ~$72 — the US Treasury revoking the license permitting Iranian oil sales
• A naval coalition raised the Strait of Hormuz threat to "severe" after fresh tanker attacks
• The fragile interim US-Iran peace deal now under real strain — geopolitical risk re-priced
• Fed June minutes Wednesday — first Warsh meeting; the hawkish-restructuring read
• Q2 earnings begin next week led by the big banks; S&P consensus +22% EPS growth

Notable Movers

• (NET) +9% — Scotiabank upgraded to Outperform; Truist, Mizuho, BTIG, Cantor all raised PTs post Investor Day
• (FIG) +5% — Bank of America reinstated coverage with a Buy rating and a $30 price target
• (RIVN) -13% — Announced a 75M-share equity offering (~$1.5B) to fund Georgia plant build-out loan requirements

Private Dealmaking

• Keyfactor (digital identity mgmt) — $1B+
• Oratomic (fault-tolerant quantum) — $300M
• Tripo AI (3D foundation models · China) — $150M
• Quaise Energy (geothermal drilling) — $134M
• Norm AI (legal services) — $120M
• Super (savings app · Toronto) — $65M

TLDR

• Dow -0.25% to 52,925.15 (below 53K); S&P -0.45%; Nasdaq -1.16% on chips
• SOX -5.5% to a 4-week low — Samsung's 19x profit missed bars + a DeepSeek AI-chip threat
• INTC -8.2%, MU -7.3% top S&P losers; NVDA -1.8% on the DeepSeek report
• WTI +5% to ~$72 — Treasury revoking the Iran oil license + Hormuz attacks ("severe" threat)
• 10Y to 4.55% on oil-inflation risk; NET +9% on upgrades; RIVN -13% on a $1.5B raise
• Fed June minutes Wednesday — first Warsh read; Q2 bank earnings begin next week

The Bottom Line

The rotation just got a geopolitical accelerant. Chips -5.5% on the Samsung-miss + DeepSeek-chip combo is the AI-durability doubt resurfacing — but the oil +5% spike on renewed Hormuz attacks is the new variable: it lifts energy, pressures the 10Y to 4.55%, and complicates the soft-landing math right as Fed minutes land Wednesday. If crude holds above $72, the disinflation tailwind that fueled the June rally reverses — and a hawkish minutes read stacks on top. Watch the Strait.

_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._