Markets Rest — H1 in the Books
Rundown · 2026-07-06
Markets closed Friday for Independence Day. H1 2026 wrapped strong: S&P +10.2%, Dow +8.9% (best since 2021), Russell +22% (best since 1991). Week ahead: SPCX joins Nasdaq 100 Tue, Fed minutes Wed, Q2 earnings begin.
Friday: Independence Day · No Trading
- US equity + bond markets closed Friday July 4 for Independence Day
- Last close (Thu Jul 2): Dow 52,900.07 (record) · S&P 7,483.24 · Nasdaq 25,832.67
- Thursday capped it: soft NFP (+57K) sent the Dow to a record; chips bled a 2nd day
- Dow logged a 4th straight weekly gain — longest streak since October 2024
- The holiday-shortened week finished green: Dow +2%, S&P +1.8%, Nasdaq +2.1%
H1 2026 in the Books: Best First Half in Years
- S&P 500 +10.2% total return — 3rd time in 4 years H1 topped 10%
- Dow +8.9% — best first-half performance since 2021
- Nasdaq +12.8%; Russell 2000 +22% — best first half since 1991
- Historically, a >10% H1 has led to a positive H2 in 16 of 18 years since 1980 (avg +8.2%)
- Driver: the AI capex boom — hyperscalers deploying $400-425B in 2026 infrastructure
- Rotation broadened late-Q2: value, industrials, financials joined the mega-cap leadership
Week Ahead: SPCX to Nasdaq 100, Fed Minutes, Earnings Kick Off
- SPCX officially joins the Nasdaq 100 Tuesday — a major passive-fund rebalancing / liquidity shuffle
- FOMC June minutes Wednesday — first Warsh meeting; the Street wants the hawkish-restructuring read
- PepsiCo earnings — an early Q2 consumer read; Delta July 10 kicks off airlines
- TSMC June revenue Friday — the AI-sector bellwether ahead of chip earnings
- Fed speakers Williams + Logan; Warsh at Sintra: "US inflation remains too high"
- Q2 earnings ramp mid-July; S&P consensus +24% EPS growth — the H2 validation gate
Macro Backdrop Into H2
- WTI ~$69 — down ~28% MoM as Hormuz flows recovered to ~75% of pre-war
- Fed funds 3.50-3.75% held; June CPI July 14 + FOMC July 28-29 the big July catalysts
- VIX 16.68 — subdued; 30Y at 4.90% — the long end still elevated
- Iran talks resume post-funeral commemorations; Hormuz still the tail risk
Private Dealmaking
- TwelveLabs (video intelligence) — $100M
- Straiker (AI agent security) — $64M
- Oblenio Bio (autoimmune disease) — $62M
- Aligned (B2B sales workspace) — $60M
- Partly (AI · auto repair supply chain) — $50M
- Honeycomb (digital insurer) — $40M
TLDR
- Markets closed Friday for Independence Day — no equity or bond trading
- H1 2026 wrapped strong: S&P +10.2%, Dow +8.9% (best since '21), Russell +22% (best since '91)
- Last close: Dow record 52,900.07; S&P 7,483.24; Nasdaq 25,832.67
- Week ahead: SPCX joins Nasdaq 100 Tue, Fed June minutes Wed, PepsiCo + Delta earnings
- TSMC June revenue Fri the AI bellwether; Q2 earnings ramp mid-July (+24% EPS expected)
- WTI ~$69 (-28% MoM); June CPI July 14 + FOMC July 28-29 the big July gates
The Bottom Line
H1 goes in the books as one of the strongest in years — and history says a >10% first half usually begets a positive second half (16 of 18 since 1980). But the setup shifts now: the market has to prove the AI-capex boom converts to earnings, and Q2 season (+24% expected) is the first test. SPCX joining the Nasdaq 100 Tuesday front-runs a liquidity reshuffle, and Wednesday's Fed minutes reveal how hawkish the Warsh restructuring really was. Rotation, not concentration, is the H2 thesis to watch.
_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._