Q2 Ends +15% — Dow Records Again

Rundown · 2026-07-01

Nasdaq +1.52% to 26,213.72 led as Q2 closed with S&P +14.9%, Nasdaq +21.4% — best quarter since 2020; Dow 52,319.20 (+0.26%) notched a 2nd straight record; Russell 2000 also hit 3,024.37 ATH.

Market Performance

• Dow: 52,319.20 (+0.26%) — 2ND STRAIGHT RECORD CLOSE; +136 pts; +8.85% YTD
• Nasdaq: 26,213.72 (+1.52%) — tech-led; Q2 gain +21.4% best since Q2 2020
• S&P 500: 7,449.36 (+0.79%) — closed Q2 +14.9%; also best since Q2 2020
• Russell 2000: 3,024.37 (+0.46%) — new ATH; best major index YTD at +21.86%
• Sector leaders: Tech, Industrials, Financials · Laggards: Energy
• VIX: 16.45 (-6.8%) — vol collapse; risk-on posture into July
• 10Y yield: little changed — the SCOTUS Fed ruling Monday still anchoring duration
• JOLTS 7.594M vs 7.296M est — 2-year high; labor market firmer than expected

Q2 Wraps: Best Quarter Since 2020, Rotation Broadens

• S&P +14.9%, Nasdaq +21.4%, Dow +12.9% — best quarterly gain since Q2 2020
• Tech +31% in Q2 anchored the rally; industrials +15%, financials strong late-quarter
• Rotation broadens: 64% of S&P 500 stocks above the 50-day MA vs 50% a month ago
• Forward S&P earnings +18% YTD while forward P/E multiples contracted — an earnings-driven rally
• Q2 earnings kicks off mid-July (UNH July 16); +22-23% EPS growth expected

Iran Talks Resume in Doha + Macro Firms Up

• US-Iran negotiations continue in Doha today; Iran still asserting Hormuz traffic control
• Morgan Stanley: 35 tankers exited the Persian Gulf Thursday — back to pre-war range
• Home prices +1.14% YoY vs +0.9% est — housing firmer than expected
• SPCX Nasdaq 100 inclusion July 7 — an index-flow tailwind ahead

Notable Movers

• (ABVX) +39% — Positive Phase 3 ABTECT-2 maintenance data for obefazimod (ulcerative colitis)
• (AVAV) +19% — Q4 crushed: EPS $1.84 vs $1.46 est, rev $642M vs $556M est; 2027 guide midpoint above consensus
• (DLR) -6% — Announced a $7.8B acquisition of a stake in three fully leased Blackstone data centers in Northern VA

Private Dealmaking

• LeapXpert (external messaging monitoring) — $180M
• Redo (customer service automation) — $81M
• Sail Research (long-horizon AI agent infra) — $80M
• Stathera (silicon timing solutions) — $55M
• Poetic (AI for complex business workflows) — $50M
• Utilidata (data center energy optimization) — $40M

TLDR

• Nasdaq +1.52% to 26,213.72; S&P +0.79%; Dow +136 pts at 52,319.20 for a 2nd straight record
• Q2 gains: S&P +14.9%, Nasdaq +21.4%, Dow +12.9% — best quarter since 2020
• Russell 2000 at ATH 3,024.37 — best major index YTD at +21.86%
• AVAV +19% on a Q4 blowout + 2027 guide; ABVX +39% on Phase 3 obefazimod data
• JOLTS 7.594M 2-yr high; home prices +1.14% YoY beat; US-Iran talks in Doha today
• Q2 earnings kick off mid-July — expected +22-23% EPS growth; AI infra ~60% of the contribution

The Bottom Line

The tape ended the quarter the way it started it — with earnings doing the work. S&P +14.9% while multiples contracted = a re-rating driven by fundamentals, not sentiment. Russell 2000 at an ATH +21.86% YTD confirms the broadening thesis is real. The next test is whether mid-July Q2 earnings deliver the expected +22-23% growth. NFP Thursday is the near-term catalyst; a holiday-shortened week means low-liquidity moves both ways.

_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._