Dow +930 — SpaceX Debuts

Rundown · 2026-06-12

Dow +930 points as Trump signals an Iran deal is close — S&P +1.75% to 7,394.30, Nasdaq +2.54%; oil to ~$87, 10Y to 4.45%. SpaceX IPO debuts today at a $1.77T valuation.

Market Performance

• S&P 500: 7,394.30 (+1.75%) — biggest 1-day gain in 6 weeks; reclaims Tuesday's level
• Nasdaq: 25,809.66 (+2.54%) — chip rebound led; INTC +10.3%, AMAT/ARM +7.8%
• Dow: 50,848.75 (+1.86%) — +929.97 points, back above 50K
• Russell 2000: finished green after an early -1.1% — the broad rally caught small caps too
• Sector leaders: Industrials, Materials · Laggards: Energy (oil drop), Real Estate, Cons. Staples
• 10Y yield: 4.45% — down 10 bps; 2Y: 4.05% — front end repriced de-escalation
• WTI crude: ~$87 — Trump initially said strikes were canceled before later threats; net lower
• Chip cohort ripped: ASTS +11%, RDW, RKLB all higher on the SpaceX IPO halo
• 5 names join the Nasdaq-100 in the June rebalance: ALAB, CRWV, NBIS, RKLB, TER

SpaceX Debut Today: $1.77T Valuation, $75B Raised

• Priced at $135/share for 555.6M Class A shares = ~$75B raised — largest IPO in history
• Valuation: $1.77 trillion — would rank as ~5th most valuable US company at the open
• OpenAI and Anthropic reportedly preparing public listings later this year — IPO window wide open
• Historical caution: large IPOs have underperformed the S&P by ~15% in their first year
• Top 30 IPOs over the past 20 years saw ~50% average first-year drawdowns — volatility caveat
• S&P inclusion ~1 year away per S&P DJI eligibility criteria — buy-pressure deferred

PPI Sticks Hot, Fed Walks Into FOMC With Cover to Hold

• Headline PPI +6.5% YoY — slightly above estimate; highest since 2022
• Core PPI +4.9% YoY — underlying pressures still elevated even with energy easing
• Energy improvement helps the narrative but not enough to flip the dovish trade
• Fed June 17-18: likely removes easing bias at Warsh's first meeting + updated SEPs
• Bar for additional rate HIKES remains high despite hot inflation prints
• BoC held Wednesday; ECB hiked +25 bps Thursday — global synchronization breaking

Notable Movers

• (SPCE) +22% — SpaceX IPO fever lifted the entire space sector as investors bought publicly traded proxies
• (SNDK) +15% — Morgan Stanley flagged SNDK + MU as biggest winners of a prolonged AI memory upcycle
• (ORCL) -9% — announced a ~$40B raise via debt + equity to fund its AI data center buildout; cloud growth disappointed

Private Dealmaking

• Prometheus (industrial AI · Bezos-launched) — $12B
• Neura Robotics (humanoid robotics · Germany) — $1.4B
• Cyera (data security) — $600M
• Digital Asset (Canton Network) — $355M
• TensorWave (AMD AI cloud) — $350M
• Satispay (fintech · Italy · raising) — up to ~$130M

TLDR

• Massive rebound: Dow +930 pts (+1.86%) to 50,848.75; S&P +1.75%, Nasdaq +2.54%
• Trump signaled an Iran deal is close, then later escalated rhetoric — net tape priced de-escalation
• SpaceX IPO debuts today at a $1.77T valuation, $75B raised — largest IPO in history
• PPI +6.5% (4-year high) didn't matter — the risk-on bid + 10Y to 4.45% drowned it out
• SNDK +15% on a Morgan Stanley AI-memory upcycle call; ORCL -9% on a $40B AI capex raise
• Bezos's Prometheus +$12B for industrial AI — the biggest private round of the year so far

The Bottom Line

The reversal is real but conditional. +930 Dow points off Wednesday's -953 is a textbook escalation/de-escalation whipsaw — and what happens next depends on Trump's actual next move, not his last tweet. SpaceX at $1.77T debuting today defines the IPO supercycle now feeding the AI capex flywheel. Warsh's first FOMC next Wednesday still hangs over everything: hot PPI + hot CPI + a war-priced 10Y means he walks in with no room — and the bar for hikes still remains low.

_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._