PPI +6.5% YoY — Hottest Since Nov 2022

Fundamentals · 2026-06-11

Headline PPI +1.1% MoM (vs ~0.3% est, +1.1% Apr); +6.5% YoY (vs +5.7% Apr) — hottest since Nov 2022; Core (ex foods/energy/trade) +0.8% MoM (largest since Mar 2022) and +5.1% YoY; Final demand goods +2.8% (largest since series began 2009); Energy +10.7%; Wholesale gasoline +23.4% (Hormuz).

What Is This?

• What it is: The BLS measure of price changes received by domestic producers for output sold to final demand and intermediate stages — the wholesale-level inflation gauge upstream of CPI/PCE.
• Why it matters: Producer prices lead consumer prices by 1-3 months; this is the pipeline read that tells the Fed where CPI is heading into FOMC June 17 and PCE June 27.

Want the full explainer? Economic News Events, Explained breaks down this release and every other one we cover, in plain English.

Summary

PPI for final demand jumped 1.1% MoM and accelerated to 6.5% YoY (from 5.7%) — the hottest 12-month rise since November 2022. Core PPI (less foods, energy, and trade services) rose 0.8% MoM, the largest monthly advance since March 2022, with YoY at 5.1% — the highest since October 2022. Final demand goods surged 2.8% MoM — the LARGEST increase since BLS began calculating this series in December 2009 — with 80% of the gain from a 10.7% jump in energy. Wholesale gasoline ripped 23.4% (direct Iran/Hormuz passthrough), with diesel, jet fuel, plastic resins, and industrial chemicals also up. Services rose only 0.3% as trade margins compressed -1.1% — retailers/wholesalers absorbing some energy passthrough before it hits consumers. Stage 4 intermediate +3.5% (largest since March 2021), processed energy +10.4%. Stacked against CPI +0.5% MoM yesterday and ISM Services Prices 71.3, this is a pipeline inflation explosion that locks the Fed into a hawkish hold June 17 and resurrects hike risk in the dot plot.

Impact on USD

• Bullish — a record-breaking final-demand-goods print kills any near-term cut narrative.
• Pipeline inflation explicit — terminal-higher repricing on the Fed dot plot.
• Core +0.8% MoM = stickier consumer-level CPI ahead — supports DXY structurally.

Impact on US Indices (ES / NQ / YM)

• Bearish — pipeline inflation = a future CPI shock + margin compression visible now.
• Trade services -1.1% margin squeeze — retailers (XRT) and wholesalers under pressure.
• Energy (XLE, XOP) are direct beneficiaries; long-duration tech (NQ) faces multiple compression.

Impact on Gold

• Bullish — stagflation confirmation + wholesale gasoline +23.4% Hormuz read reinforces the hedge bid.
• Pipeline inflation re-anchors expectations higher — real-yield headwind muted.
• War premium intact and now embedded in producer prices — a structural XAU bid.

TLDR

PPI Report (May 2026, released June 11):

• Headline PPI MoM: +1.1% (vs ~0.3% est, +1.1% Apr) — massive miss, hot
• Headline PPI YoY: +6.5% (vs +5.7% Apr) — hottest since Nov 2022
• Core PPI (ex foods/energy/trade) MoM: +0.8% — largest since March 2022
• Core PPI (ex foods/energy/trade) YoY: +5.1% — highest since Oct 2022
• Final demand goods: +2.8% MoM — largest since the series began (Dec 2009)
• Final demand energy: +10.7% MoM; gasoline +23.4%; diesel/jet fuel/chemicals up
• Final demand services: +0.3% MoM; trade margins -1.1%
• Stage 4 intermediate: +3.5% MoM (largest since March 2021)

Pipeline inflation explosion — the energy/Hormuz passthrough is hitting wholesale, and retail margins are already compressing. It foreshadows hotter CPI ahead and shuts the door on June 17 cuts. Hike risk is firmly back on the table for the dot plot. Watch the FOMC June 17 SEP, then PCE June 27, then the next CPI July 14.

_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._