Chips Snap Back — CPI Waits

Rundown · 2026-06-09

Chips bounce hard after Friday's rout — SOX +5.61%, INTC +11% on a Google TPU deal, MRVL +10% on S&P 500 inclusion — but the tape stays muted ahead of CPI Wednesday (4.2% est).

Market Performance

• S&P 500: 7,405.73 (+0.30%) — relief bounce off Friday's -2.64% rout; still well below the 7,580 ATH
• Nasdaq: 25,929.66 (+0.86%) — chip-led recovery; SOX +5.61% retraced part of Friday's -10%
• Dow: 50,786.01 (-0.16%) — slightly lower; defensives gave back Friday's bid
• Russell 2000: mixed; small caps consolidating after Friday's -3.47%
• Sector leaders: Tech (chip rebound), Comm Services · Laggards: Cons. Staples, Health Care
• 10Y yield: ~4.55% · 2Y: ~4.05% — yields still climbing post-NFP
• WTI crude: briefly $95 intraday, settled near $91 — Iran halted strikes vs Israel
• Apple WWDC opened — Tim Cook's last as CEO; AI strategy reboot in focus

CPI Wednesday: The Whole Tape Pivots on the Print

• Consensus headline: +4.2% YoY — up from 3.8% in April; energy still bleeding through
• Core consensus: +2.9% — slight tick up from 2.8%; sticky services the watch item
• 10Y still elevated at 4.55% post-NFP shock — bond market braced for the worst
• Hot print cements higher-for-longer + revives the rate-hike trade Warsh inherits
• Cool surprise relieves duration pressure and lets the chip bounce extend
• Warsh's first FOMC mid-June arrives 8 days after — framing matters

Intel & Marvell Reset the Chip Trade

• INTC +11.19% to $110.27 — Google ordered 3M+ TPUs via Intel Foundry by 2028
• NVDA testing Intel's 18A process; SK Hynix testing memory compatibility
• MRVL +9.63% to $288.85 — joins the S&P 500 June 22, replacing Pool Corp
• MRVL stock up 210% YTD; trades at 71x forward on 40% rev growth
• Friday's chip carnage absorbed; pre-inclusion buying lifted the cohort

Notable Movers

• (INTC) +11% — Google placed an order to manufacture 3M+ TPUs via Intel Foundry by 2028
• (MRVL) +10% — S&P Dow Jones announced Marvell will join the S&P 500 effective June 22
• (WIX) -8% — delayed flagship product launch + slowing growth left investors skeptical

Private Dealmaking

• SFR (telco · France · Bouygues/Orange/iliad acq.) — ~$23.5B
• Tate & Lyle (UK ingredients · Ingredion acq.) — ~$5B
• Chung Ho Group (appliance rental · Carlyle acq.) — $700M
• Continental Aerospace (piston engines · Arcline acq.) — $535M
• PhysicsX (physics AI for industrials) — $300M
• A (AI-attack cybersecurity) — $47M

TLDR

• S&P +0.30%, Nasdaq +0.86% bounce off Friday's rout; Dow -0.16% lagged
• SOX +5.61%, INTC +11% (Google TPU deal), MRVL +10% (S&P 500 inclusion June 22)
• CPI Wednesday consensus 4.2% headline / 2.9% core — the print resets the whole rate path
• 10Y stuck at ~4.55%; WTI spiked $95 then settled $91 as Iran halted Israel strikes
• SFR deal $23.5B the day's biggest M&A; Ingredion buying Tate & Lyle for $5B
• Apple WWDC opened with Tim Cook's last keynote as CEO — AI reboot in focus

The Bottom Line

The bounce is here but it's thin. Chips up 5.61% on day 1 of recovery doesn't undo the $1T+ wiped Friday — it just hits pause. Wednesday's CPI at 4.2% est is the next gate. A cool print and chips rip again into Warsh's debut; a hot print and last week's selloff was just the warm-up. Watch 30Y above 5% — if it stays there through CPI, Friday's rotation becomes permanent.

_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._